**NATIONAL SECURITY** STRATEGY ##### 2021 A SHARED PROJECT PRESIDENCIA DEL GOBIERNO ----- ----- NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY 2021 ----- Catalogue of General State Administration Publications https://cpage.mpr.gob.es Published by: © Author and publisher, 2021 NIPO (paper edition): 089210354 NIPO (edition on-line): 08921036X DL: M-31930-2021 Publication date: 04-11-2021 Printed by: Estugraf ----- STRATEGY NATIONAL SECURITY 2021 The National Security Council has been responsible for preparing the 2021 National Security Strategy, a process in which Spain’s ministries and National Intelligence Centre also participated. The Spanish Autonomous Communities and Autonomous Cities also took part in this process, through the Sectoral Conference for National Security Issues. Moreover, the 2021 National Security Strategy includes the contributions of independent experts, individuals of renowned prestige, knowledge, and experience in the sphere of security. The process was coordinated by the Department of National Security of the Office of the Presidency of the Government, in its capacity as Technical Secretariat and Permanent Working Body of the National Security Council. ----- LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE GOVERNMENT _Conceived as the principal framework of a public policy, the National Security_ _Strategy is a shared project, in the preparation of which Spain’s ministries,_ _Autonomous Communities, Autonomous Cities, and civil society have_ _participated._ _The 2021 National Security Strategy represents both continuity and change._ _Continuity, because the fact that it is the fourth strategy of its kind in Spain’s_ _democratic history represents a commitment. The security of Spain and its_ _citizenry is one of the Government’s highest responsibilities. This Strategy_ _builds upon the legacy of its predecessors and endorses the comprehensive_ _vision of national security, understood as State action aimed at protecting_ _the public’s freedom, rights and well-being, ensuring the defence of Spain_ _and its constitutional principles and values, and contributing to international_ _security, together with Spain’s partners and allies, in compliance with agreed_ _commitments._ _Change, because it identifies the current situation as a window of opportunity_ _after one of the worst global crises in decades. Transformation in a context_ _of uncertainty requires a strategic vision, where security is conceived as_ _a prerequisite for economic recovery and social cohesion. Furthermore,_ _the National Security Strategy considers technological innovation and the_ _ecological transition as two paths towards a modern Spain, looking towards a_ _future full of opportunities for progress._ _The Strategy offers a proactive and solidary response for Spain to be secure_ _and resilient in the face of the main challenges of an increasingly connected_ _world, where the defence of democracy, human rights, and the international_ _order knows no borders._ ----- LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE GOVERNMENT _To this end, its strategic approach has three pillars: protecting people’s lives,_ _rights, and freedoms, and the constitutional order; promoting the citizenry’s_ _prosperity and well-being; and participating in the preservation of international_ _peace and security._ _In this framework, advancing in crisis management, fostering the security_ _dimension of technological capabilities and strategic sectors, and developing_ _Spain’s prevention, deterrence, detection, and response capabilities in the_ _face of hybrid strategies are established as priority goals for the coming years._ _The measures proposed in this National Security Strategy are aligned with_ _Spain’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, and with the Spain_ _2050 Strategy, two documents that set a road map with a long-term strategic_ _view._ _Moreover, nearly all of Spain’s national strategic planning initiatives are_ _conceived with a European dimension, in which strategic autonomy is key_ _to achieving greater resilience. Likewise, for Spain, a stronger NATO means_ _greater European security._ _Lastly, in global terms, the Strategy reflects a commitment to strengthened_ _multilateralism, with initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals_ _and the 2030 Agenda forming part of a joint effort to build a more just and_ _secure world._ Pedro Sánchez President of the Govermment of Spain ----- #### Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ###### 12 INTRODUCTION ###### 18 ----- Chapter 1 ###### 24 GLOBAL SECURITY AND TRANSFORMATION VECTORS Chapter 2 ###### 38 A SECURE AND RESILIENT SPAIN Chapter 3 ###### 52 RISKS AND THREATS Chapter 4 ###### 70 INTEGRATED STRATEGIC PLANNING Chapter 5 ###### 104 THE NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- Executive Summary ----- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2021 National Security Strategy is divided into five chapters. The first chapter, titled “Global Security and Transformation Vectors”, analyses the international security context. The Strategy identifies the Covid-19 pandemic as a factor that has accelerated the principal global dynamics affecting security. While it cannot be stated categorically that this is a paradigm shift, the current moment is perceived as a time of transition. Its main characteristic is uncertainty about a future where digital transformation and the ecological transition represent the main drivers of change in a scenario of greater geopolitical competition. The second chapter, “A Secure and Resilient Spain” provides an overview of Spain and its security situation, starting from its identification as a European, Mediterranean, and Atlantic country, and analysing Europe, the Maghreb and the Near East, Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific from a national security viewpoint. The third chapter lists risks and threats to national security, which are mainly characterized by being interrelated and dynamic. Thus, monitoring connections between risks is as important as analysing them independently. The most 2021 significant update to the risk map is the inclusion of disinformation campaigns. ----- Moreover, hybrid technology and strategies are present in all national security risks and threats. The fourth chapter, titled “Integrated Strategic Planning”, sets forth three objectives, setting the national security priorities for this strategic cycle. The first of these objectives is to advance in crisis management; the second is to foster the security dimension of technological capabilities and strategic sectors; and the third objective is to develop prevention, detection, and response capabilities with regard to hybrid strategies. After that, the Strategy describes three pillars—protection, promotion, and participation—underpinning the lines of action. This approach affords special relevance to advances in the integration of the National Security System and action in crisis situations. In designing a prevention policy, the key area identified is the creation of a technology-based early warning system, providing indicators for every area of national security. The 2021 National Security Strategy introduces necessary initiatives, such as the creation of a strategic reserve based on national industrial production capacities, and of a comprehensive security plan for Ceuta and Melilla. In the international sphere, Spain is committed to greater European strategic autonomy, which calls for promoting the Common Security and Defence Policy and the area of freedom, security and justice; improving health security; advancing towards an energy union; and giving the EU a greater role in managing cross-border crises. Furthermore, the NATO Strategic Concept review will constitute an important milestone for collective security, and include collaboration with the European Union as one of its lines of action. Lastly, the fifth chapter is about crisis management within the National Security System. This approach is based on an understanding of the principle of resilience which ranges from a situation of normality to post-crisis recovery. Progress in the integration of this System requires specific actions. The first of these is to draft a Presidency of the Government national security resource catalogue. The second is to prepare response plans for certain scenarios. The third is to develop an early warning system and conduct indicator-based analysis, to facilitate decision-making using specific, objective data. The fourth measure refers to integrating national security information using technological solutions. Improving the special communications of ----- the Presidency of the Government is the fifth measure. This will contribute to the effectiveness of the National Security System by enabling greater coordination between different levels of the public administration in crisis management. The sixth and last measure comprises integrating Spain’s Autonomous Communities and Autonomous Cities into the National Security System. ----- ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- Introduction ----- INTRODUCTION nder normal conditions, the 2017 National Security Strategy would have been reviewed after five years. However, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the increased use of hybrid strategies have made it advisable to carry out a U strategic review to confront risks and threats in a new global context, characterized by greater uncertainty and accelerated change. The pandemic has been the event with the greatest worldwide impact since World War II, with serious consequences for health, the economy, and security. Even when all of the effects have been overcome, the world’s current interdependence will remain, contributing to generate vulnerabilities, and often acting as a multiplier of threats in the medium and long term. Pandemics, climate change, cyberattacks, and financial crises are all complex—and often interconnected—risks and threats, which could lead to a domino effect. In particular, the effects of climate change may intensify economic, political, and geopolitical crises arising from food and water scarcity in many places around the world. As a result, situations of massive migrations and regional instability could ----- become aggravated, and even lead to new armed conflicts. Likewise, global warming will have direct repercussions in Spain, because it will cause more extreme and frequent adverse weather events, droughts, heatwaves, floods, water scarcity, and harm to biodiversity. Moreover, as seen in recent years, hybrid strategies are increasingly being used by State and non-State actors as tools to put pressure on democratic governments. When responding to global threats, a balance must be struck between the strategic disengagement of States as a form of protection, and the necessary collaboration and information exchange between countries and organizations to seek joint solutions. This paradigmatic dilemma hinders the coordination of responses within international organizations. Therefore, with a view to future global threats and crises, it will be important to invest efforts in strengthening a universal and regional multilateral system that is capable of responding in an effective and coordinated manner. In this regard, and in light of the experience in Afghanistan, the European Union must conduct joint military actions that strengthen transatlantic ties and foster cross-border crisis management and EU strategic autonomy. In particular, the European Union must take on a greater role in managing challenges, such as pandemics, international terrorism cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns, which require collective responses and integrated capabilities. The magnitude of today’s risks and threats requires adapting our available resources, means, systems, and organizations. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of early warning systems, of integrating and analysing information, and of response plans for crisis management. All of these measures facilitate and streamline decision-making. To this end, it is necessary to have a digitalized National Security System, able to offer timely information for decision-making. Prevention and adaptation will be key to achieving an efficient National Security System. This requires: **More advance planning:** The National Security Strategy must guide the implementation of an early warning system and the design of crisis management plans. Spain’s Autonomous ----- Communities must participate in these efforts, because the powers devolved to these regions include a great many detection and management resources and capabilities. **More integration:** A comprehensive approach to national security requires the coordination of all the public administrations and State resources, public-private collaboration, and citizen involvement. **More resilience:** To reduce vulnerability, it is equally necessary to mitigate risks and to strengthen resilience; i.e., resistance, transformation, and recovery capacity in an adverse situation. Moreover, to manage future crises and have the necessary critical resources, it is important to ensure that the supply chains of such resources are not excessively dependent on external parties. This will help to contain the expansion of these crises, by strengthening the resilience of society and the economy. ----- ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- # 1 Global security and transformation vectors ----- Chapter 1 GLOBAL SECURITY AND TRANSFORMATION VECTORS _The first chapter of the National Security Strategy describes the_ _international security context and outlines the principal dynamics of_ _transformation._ he global order and the liberal socio-economic paradigm are undergoing a sea change, and the new international system has not yet been clearly defined. The principal transformation vectors are the geopolitical context, the socio T economic environment, digital transformation, and ecological transition. ----- ----- GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT The global geopolitical scenario has reached a tipping point. On the one hand, the architecture of the international system is subject to greater pressure, and controversies between States are intensifying. On the other hand, addressing crises of a global nature requires effective multilateralism. Tensions can be seen between protectionist or unilateral policies, and efforts— especially by the European Union—to strengthen multilateralism. In recent years, dynamics of confrontation and competition have prevailed over those of negotiation and agreement, leading to a generalized deterioration of international relations in all of their facets: commercial, technological, diplomatic, and military. Moreover, the ongoing population decline is having a destabilizing effect and hindering the adoption of joint solutions. Therefore, the international governance of security, climate change, or global public goods has often been replaced by ad hoc cooperation, characterized by uneven alliances. This trend has been driven by shifts in the distribution of power, and is contributing to a new brand of multilateralism: one that is hybrid, and includes more emerging and non-State actors. Meanwhile, the use of hybrid strategies has increased; though coordinated, multidimensional actions, such strategies seek to exploit the vulnerabilities of States and their institutions, targeting their political, social, or economic **The use of hybrid** destabilization or coercion. It is difficult to identify the **strategies has** perpetrators of such strategies, and the methods **increased** they use may include not only conventional actions but also others, such as disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, espionage, social subversion, sabotage, economic coercion, and the asymmetrical use of military means. In particular, challenges to multilateralism fall within the framework of the growing geopolitical, commercial, and technological rivalry between the United States and China. The US efforts to consolidate alliances and regain a certain degree of leadership in global governance are part of this tension between these two powers. ----- China’s economic expansion, together with greater US protectionism, have increasingly strained their trade relations. This situation has led to an escalation of tariff measures, and restrictions on exports and investments adopted by both powers. This dispute is particularly intense in the technological sphere, with a race for world domination, including the control of exports of critical and dual-use technologies. China, which has made great advances in 5G technology and artificial intelligence (AI), is seeking a pre-eminent position that will enable it to define technical and industrial standards and protocols, as well as exercising leadership in direct foreign investments in operators of networks and services. **The dispute** **between the United** **States and China is** **particularly intense** **in the technological** **sphere** This competition could cause a digital and production divide leading to a parallel, but differentiated, development of two technological blocs. This could produce a scenario of decoupling, in which the supply chains of strategic sectors would be repatriated or subject to greater control. Furthermore, China has redoubled its efforts to raise its profile in international organizations, seeking a position from which to influence reforms in global governance. In global terms, its leverage with regard to the United States has increased significantly in the past three decades, and it has supplanted the influence of Western countries in many regions, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. In this context of tension, Russia has striven in recent years to gain a position of greater leadership on the international scene, making efforts towards multipolarity, the recognition of its singularity, and the distribution of areas of influence. Russia’s expansionist policy is reflected in its interventions in Syria and Libya, and in its rapprochement involving powers with regional aspirations, such as Turkey, India, and Iran. At the same time, the nuclear order that emerged from the Cold War has been eroded by the dismantling of several arms control agreements that curbed the arms race between the United States and Russia, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). However, the United States has signed an agreement with Russia renewing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as the New START. ----- Furthermore, it has shown interest in returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear programme, from which it withdrew in 2018. Regional powers such as Iran and Turkey have also strengthened their geopolitical influence in a context of global fragmentation and regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Conflicts in Palestine, Israel, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen may possibly continue to be scenarios of confrontation between different State and non-State actors, both national and foreign. The withdrawal of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan, after 20 years of continuous presence, opens up another front for geostrategic competition, in addition to the possibility of Afghan territory being used as a refuge and a base for terrorist actions by jihadist groups. On another note, the instability generated in the eastern Mediterranean by gas prospecting in the territorial sea disputed by Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece reveals a trend towards unilateralism in maritime disputes, makes it difficult to reach a common European Union position, and heightens the difficulty to reach consensus within NATO. Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a theatre for rivalries between different extra-regional powers. In the Sahel, destabilization caused by jihadist terrorism overlaps with intracommunity conflicts in States that lack the institutional strength to successfully address this manifold challenge. All of these dynamics, together with poverty and inequality, aggravate the prevailing insecurity in different countries in the region. For its part, the European Union remains committed to a solid transatlantic relationship, while taking a position towards China that encompasses both competition and cooperation, in an environment of growing instability in its Eastern Neighbourhood. In this multipolar and competitive context, there is a growing need to strengthen the European Union’s **There is a growing** strategic autonomy, both in terms of EU industrial and **need for EU** trade policy, and of the full development of its Common **strategic autonomy** Foreign and Security Policy. To this end, it will have to strike a balance in accordance with its international law commitments on protecting and guaranteeing human rights, and with its role as a defender of democracy, free trade, and multilateralism. ----- ----- SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIO The Covid-19 pandemic sparked the harshest global economic crisis since World War II, with an unprecedented drop in the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. The magnitude of its effects has been highly unequal, depending on each country’s production structure, economic resources, and levels of indebtedness. The impact of the crisis on the global economy in GDP terms has been greater than that of the 2008 crisis, but it has been followed by a marked upward trend. In a context of limited productivity growth in Europe and the United States, the impact on economies has been significant, and could accelerate the shift in the balance of power from the West to the East. China is the only G20 economy that did not suffer a recession in 2020. The negative economic consequences are expected to be short-lived and followed by relatively high growth rates. However, the forecast is for a period of high indebtedness, resulting from the extraordinary support measures for individuals and companies adopted by the European Union to counter the crisis. In this regard, the European Union has launched an ambitious Recovery and Resilience Facility as a common response to the economic transformation process. The NextGenerationEU instrument has 750 billion euros financed through the issuance of EU debt, in addition to the 1.074 trillion euros of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework to promote economic and social recovery and foster an environment of stability and security. The crisis has also highlighted our dependence on external supplies and on global supply chains, often highly dependent on countries such as China and India. In addition to the possible regionalization of strategic supplies production, States have launched strategic industrial policies to address the high level of global competition in certain technological and industrial sectors. **The crisis has** **highlighted our** **dependence on** **external supplies** The economic and trade struggle between the great powers includes the use of tariffs as a geopolitical instrument, with the ensuing impact on the European Union’s economies. ----- The sudden slowdown of the economy, increased inequality, the digital divide, destruction of the production structure, and closures of small- and medium-sized enterprises have led to a growth in poverty and in levels of frustration, marginalization, and social exclusion. The middle class, after a decade of growth, is shrinking, whereas the population segments with low or very high incomes are expanding. This hollowing out of the middle class could have significant consequences, such as a negative impact on global consumption and a possible rise in populism and authoritarianism based on national identity, which could be exacerbated by the effects of job automation. In this regard, it is necessary to forge a new social contract, to alleviate inequality and mitigate the precarity of the middle class. In certain countries, the economic crisis has been accompanied by a social and political crisis, encouraged by disinformation and destabilization campaigns that seek to erode institutions, influence democratic processes, and foster polarization. Faced with this scenario, the digital transformation and the ecological transition become particularly important as drivers for changing the production structure of the world’s economies and, consequently, the geopolitical map. Digitalization and the green economy will have to advance in unison, so that technology contributes to achieving ecological goals, and digital technologies minimize their energy consumption and emissions. ----- DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION The rise in digital infrastructure and services—boosted by disruptive and emerging technologies such as cloud computing, quantum computing, AI, network virtualization, and the Internet of Things—is leading to an unstoppable digital transformation which offers countless opportunities for the future but also poses serious challenges to national security. In this context, the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization process, placing digital interaction at the heart of public, private, and professional activities, and has consolidated hyperconnectivity as a defining feature of today’s society. Consequently, the social and economic rules have changed, and a new front of vulnerability has been created: information and communication networks and systems. **The Covid-19** **pandemic has** **accelerated the** **digitalization** **process** The digitalization of all kinds of activities has expanded public and private organizations’ exposure to possible cyberattacks, and has made the adequate protection of information more difficult. The magnitude and frequency of cyberincidents and of the illicit use of cyberspace have increased in recent years, making cybersecurity a priority for organizations and governments. This digital transformation is not only a technological phenomenon, but also has an impact on social relations and geopolitics. Technological changes lead to power shifts, both within States and between them. The consolidation of cyberspace as a strategic domain will widen the technological gap between individuals and societies, and between countries. Economic stability and monetary policies are also affected by the irruption of potentially disruptive technologies. In particular, the current configuration of the global financial system may be challenged by the emergence of digital currencies. In this regard, risks are multiplied by the prevalence of commercial criteria over security in the design of hardware and software products, as well as of systems and services, such as 5G. This stymies certification processes and may compromise the supply chain, especially in the provision of essential and/or critical services. ----- Other risks—but also a great many opportunities— stem from technological advances in fields such as biotechnology, which have facilitated the rapid development of effective vaccines against Covid-19, but also pose ethical questions regarding such activities as certain uses of genetic engineering. Moreover, vulnerability to possible interference by third parties can extend to digital infrastructure such as data processing centres and undersea cables, and to assets underpinning the intellectual and industrial property of the business sector. It will also be necessary to consider the global connectivity map and the appearance of new satellite operators, especially those linked to major tech companies. Now that information has become a prime strategic resource, the debate on ethics and the defence of digital rights has intensified, and is especially determined by the concentration of information in major tech companies and by abuse of such information by certain political actors. Digital service users’ right to privacy is at the heart of this debate, and has led to court rulings that could condition technological development. Secure access to public and private services, in particular to essential online services, means that people can protect their identity and control the data they share and how these data are used, thus guaranteeing privacy and personal data protection. Having a secure digital identity is key to cybersecurity. Democratic governance of the digital future is of the utmost importance to resolve concerns regarding rights and freedoms and geopolitical competition. ----- ECOLOGICAL TRANSITION The climate crisis has led to greater political and social awareness of the need to combat its consequences through ecological transition processes. Climate change has a negative impact on human life and well-being. Its effects include a rise in the number of extreme weather events, the degradation of land and marine ecosystems, desertification, the increased incidence and frequency of heatwaves, droughts, the reduction of water availability, Saharan dust intrusions, forest fires, floods, and biodiversity loss. These harmful effects could lead to greater competition for resources and to an increase in migration movements from areas more exposed to the detrimental consequences of climate change. Moreover, biodiversity degradation causes the loss of ecosystem services, which are essential to the well-being and to the very survival of human beings, and fosters the expansion of invasive alien species, which have a significant impact on the economy and are potential vectors of new diseases. In this context, adaptation to climate change is essential to achieve environmental and ecological resilience that will preserve lives and the well-being of society and of the environment. In December 2019, the European Union presented the European Green Deal, a road map to make its economy sustainable and climate-neutral by 2050. To this end, a binding goal for 2030 is to reduce internal net emissions by 55% with regard to 1990 levels. In this framework, it is equally important to move towards a **Renewable energy** circular economy, with a production and consumption **development is** model based on re-using, renovating, and recycling **strategic** materials and products. This model will help to reduce pressure on the environment, to improve the security of supply chains through a more effective use of existing resources, and to stimulate business development in the field of research, development, and innovation (R&D&i). An energy paradigm shift—moving from dependence on fossil fuels to dependence on renewable technologies—is key to achieving climate neutrality. This will foster ----- new energy transition geopolitics, and a shift in the balance between importers and exporters. Renewable energy development is, moreover, strategic, because it will enable the use of indigenous sources and greater diversification, thus increasing security and improving the external balance. However, it also entails major technological challenges relating to an electricity generation system based on variable energy sources, and the development of new, smart storage systems and infrastructure, as well as challenges involving the reduction of impact on the natural and human environment. Evolving towards a decarbonized economy will increase competition for raw materials such as rare earth materials, industrial materials and processes relating to digitalization and renewable technologies, and a greater dependence on the geographic regions that supply these technologies. ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- # 2 A secure and resilient Spain ----- Chapter 2 A SECURE AND RESILIENT SPAIN _The second chapter of the National Security Strategy offers an overview_ _of the world’s different geographic regions from a Spanish security_ _standpoint._ pain a social and democratic State under the rule of law, with a constitutional framework of rights and freedoms that puts people at its heart, and with solid and fully democratic institutions. One of its main strengths is its plural, open, S and solidary society. The forward-looking vision of a secure and resilient Spain includes technological transformation and ecological transition as drivers of just and sustainable growth, industrial and business competitiveness, and the creation of quality jobs. National security must contribute to territorial cohesion, and it is necessary to ensure that all of its structures are more resilient to risks and threats. From a geographic perspective, Spain is unique, as it comprises the Iberian peninsula, archipelagos, islands, promontories, and the Autonomous Cities of Ceuta and Melilla in northern Africa, in addition to an extensive coastline. ----- Its location makes it a European, a Mediterranean, and an Atlantic country, which reaches out to the world in its commitment to international peace and security. Spain advocates strengthened multilateralism, the intensification of European integration, strategic bilateral partnerships, and a commitment to solidarity, as principles set forth in its Foreign Action Strategy. Cooperation with our immediate neighbours—France, Andorra, Portugal, and Morocco—is especially important. The National Security Strategy is aligned with the objectives of the international organizations of which Spain is a member, especially the United Nations, the European Union, and NATO, with which it seeks to protect and guarantee the interests it shares with its partners and allies. ----- **A SECURE AND RESILIENT SPAIN** Spain’s geographic location makes it a European, a Mediterranean, and an Atlantic country, which reaches out to the world in its commitment to international peace and security. ----- ----- EUROPE Spain is an important Member State of the European Union, a staunch defender of advancing in European integration, and proactive in the development of common policies in crucial areas such as energy, immigration, and security. For Spain, a more resilient Union is a stronger Europe in the world. The European Union must continue to advance in the development of its Common Foreign and Security Policy, in particular of its Common Security and Defence Policy, to face challenges arising from the use of hybrid strategies, the adverse positions of actors such as Russia and China, and of phenomena such as terrorism, as well as to coordinate and cooperate with the United Nations and NATO. The protection of the high seas and maritime routes is key to European security. The Atlantic coastline is an area of strategic interest, connecting Europe to the Americas and to West Africa. The gradual melting of Arctic sea ice opens up new maritime routes with strategic implications. Moreover, Spain shares an agenda regarding areas such as the Gulf of Guinea with other Atlantic European countries such as France and Portugal, mainly in the areas of maritime and energy security. In southern Europe, the Mediterranean Sea is a nexus and a strategic bridge to Africa and the Middle East, but it is also a scenario of tension and friction where different countries and actors seek to impose their criteria and interests, often disregarding international law and violating the sovereignty of coastal States. In this regard, Spain will work to promote dialogue on the Eastern Mediterranean, from an EU perspective, and in the understanding that Turkey is a key regional actor, a NATO ally, and a strategic partner with shared interests. To the East, Russia’s increasingly assertive position has strained its relations with the European Union, which has also realized the challenges posed by some of that country’s actions, both military and hybrid. Spain will remain committed to engaging in dialogue with Russia, despite the difficulties, based on respect for international ----- law, the defence of States’ sovereignty and territorial integrity, and respect for human rights in its external action. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom has changed the face of the European Union, and represents the loss of a major security asset, consequently posing a number of challenges. For Spain, this withdrawal will not hinder the strengthening of ties between two countries that are friends and allies. However, and on the basis of positive cooperation, Spain will not relinquish the opportunity that this new scenario presents, to resolve the anachronism represented by the situation of Gibraltar. ----- THE MAGHREB AND THE NEAR EAST Spain’s priorities in the Maghreb are to promote an area of security, political stability, and development, and to contribute to combating such threats as terrorism and organized crime, collaborating with countries that are Spain’s preferential partners and friends. Spain is on very good terms with both Morocco and Algeria—a friendship based on loyal cooperation and respect for mutual borders. Collaboration with these countries in aspects related to security, such as terrorism and illegal trafficking, complements robust relations based on political dialogue, trade relations, and energy ties. Support for the tumultuous democracy in Tunisia and contributions to UN-led efforts to solve the tense situation in Libya are also essential to achieving peace and stability in the Mediterranean. The Near East is the focus of international attention due not only to its persistent instability, but also to the proliferation of internal conflicts, the expansion of jihadist terrorism, the serious humanitarian crises, and the interference of certain global and regional actors outside of multilateral frameworks. The war in Syria and Yemen, and the tension between Iran and the Gulf monarchies, paint a complex picture. Moreover, the US withdrawal from certain Near Eastern areas will leave a vacuum that will be exploited by actors such as Russia and China. Addressing all these challenges requires firm and broad-based international cooperation. Spain is committed to the region’s security, and has deployed troops to Lebanon, within the context of UN missions, and to operations led by NATO, the European Union, and the Global Coalition against DAESH. Since the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, Spain has actively supported a solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict through the Middle East Peace Process. The agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020 are proof of the speed and significance of recent changes in the ----- region, as well as of the need to adapt Spain’s position so that it may remain useful for seeking a just solution for both parties.. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The security-development nexus and a preventive approach are the guiding principles of policies for Spain to contribute to stability in three geographic areas of special interest: the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Horn of Africa, as set forth both in Spain’s Third Plan Africa and in the Focus Africa 2023 programme. Spain will maintain its support for international and regional security initiatives, as well as its commitment to EU civilian and military missions. The Sahel region is beset by the continuing governability crisis and the absence of State authority in large areas of sovereignty, along with humanitarian emergencies caused by natural disasters and the adverse effects of climate change. All of this in an environment of structural fragility which, together with pressure on limited resources for a population characterized by high demographic growth, has exacerbated latent threats such as jihadist terrorism, the many inter-community conflicts, and illicit trafficking. Moreover, the factors of instability in the Sahel, and in particular the threat of violent extremism, are spreading to the coastal countries in West and North Africa. The Gulf of Guinea has great strategic importance for Europe and for safeguarding Spain’s interests. These countries’ maritime areas are rife with criminal activity, such as hijacking and armed robbery involving fishing vessels and oil tankers, and piracy and illegal fishing in international waters. In the Gulf of Guinea, Spain is actively contributing to secure navigation in maritime routes and areas, with the aim of strengthening national and regional maritime safety and security in order to guarantee energy supplies, and protect Spanish fishing interests and investments in the region. ----- In the Horn of Africa, the implementation of a comprehensive approach that addresses the underlying roots of conflicts affecting maritime routes and areas of high international importance will continue to guide Spain’s actions. Furthermore, Spain is following with concern the events in northern Mozambique, which represent a hotbed of instability for the region as a whole. NORTH AMERICA AND THE TRANSATLANTIC LINK Spain’s strategic partnership with the United States is based on a relationship of mutual trust, with political, economic, cultural, and military dimensions. The Agreement on Defence Cooperation signed between our two countries constitutes added value, not to mention our excellent cooperation, together with other partners and allies, within the Global Coalition against DAESH. The current scenario opens up a window of opportunity for further consolidating transatlantic ties, and strengthening and reforming multilateralism and its institutions. The United States’ strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific and its reduced presence in the Middle East must also be taken into consideration. Spain, a member of the European Union and of NATO, will support cooperation between these two organizations as a central pillar of collective security against major global challenges. ----- LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Latin America has developed rapidly in the first decade of the 21st century. However, it still faces significant challenges, which the Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated: insecurity, environmental crises and natural disasters, high rates of corruption, illicit trafficking, and organized crime. Spain will foster union and stability in Latin America through bilateral action, regional forums, and the Ibero-American Summits. Moreover, it will redouble its efforts to serve as a bridge of understanding and collaboration with the European Union, and to foster collaboration in the management of crises that affect us all. Spain will continue to collaborate on eradicating drug production in and trafficking from Latin America, due to the threat it poses for the region, and because Spain is one of the points of entry of this illicit traffic into Europe. Spain will also endeavour to maintain its privileged relationship with Latin America, on the basis of strengthened cooperation and closer relations in the sphere of defence, especially through cooperation in peacekeeping operations, bilaterally and regionally. ----- ASIA-PACIFIC The steady shift in the world’s centre of economic and strategic gravity towards Asia-Pacific makes this an area of interest for Spain. The European Union has stated its commitment to the stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region, a key geographic area for international security, which is experiencing rising geopolitical competition. Maritime disputes in the South China Sea, tensions involving Taiwan, the conflict over Kashmir, and border disputes between India and China all introduce elements of regional instability, which are compounded by threats such as the development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems by the North Korea, and the spread of transnational jihadist terrorism. Countries such as India and China are becoming increasingly relevant in international affairs. Moreover, regional initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement are expanding the region’s influence on the world’s economy. China’s rise as a global power can be seen in its New Silk Road initiative, its technological dominance, and its growing investing presence in Latin America and Africa, as well as in European countries. In its relationship with Beijing, the European Union combines elements of systemic rivalry, areas of competition, and common global challenges such as climate change and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which require cooperation. The situation in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal could have a significant geopolitical impact, with the possible reconfiguration of relations, both globally and regionally. The potential deterioration of the humanitarian and human rights situation poses an additional challenge. Moreover, for Europe’s security it will be especially important to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for terrorists and a hotbed of organized crime. ----- Spain supports initiatives to strengthen cooperation in the region, in such areas as connectivity and maritime security, as well as concerted action to address challenges with a global dimension, such as climate change and health, and the promotion of trade relations. Furthermore, Spain will seek closer relations with countries in the region that share its values and interests. ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- # 3 Risks and threats ----- Chapter 3 RISKS AND THREATS _The third chapter of the National Security Strategy draws a map of_ _national security risks and threats, with an approach that highlights its_ _dynamism and interdependence, in a security environment where hybrid_ _strategies are playing an increasingly central role._ oday’s security outlook is more uncertain than that of previous years. The Covid-19 crisis has intensified underlying global trends and has accelerated the pace of change. T Geopolitical confrontation intersects with technology and the economy, thus drawing a map of more complex and highly interrelated risks. In addition, threats deriving from the use of next-generation technologies, such as AI and access to outer space, add complexity and make it difficult to protect individual rights against possible malicious use. ----- In this Strategy, the factors affecting national security are considered elements on a continuum, **Risks and threats** depending on their probability and impact. Therefore, **are not static—they** risks and threats are not static—they are conceived **are conceived in a** dynamically. **dynamic manner** Moreover, it presents a risk map with two distinguishing features compared to previous models. On the one hand, the key role played by technology in most of the threats, as well as the prominence of hybrid strategies, are underlined, and on the other, interconnections between the different risks and threats are highlighted. Thus, the interrelation between them may have a domino effect, as with the crisis sparked by the pandemic. With this approach, it is important to have the necessary capabilities to respond to a conflation of risks and threats, instead of merely preparing for a possible repetition of a crisis similar to the last one. ----- ----- ----- STRATEGIC AND REGIONAL TENSION In today’s security context, featuring a decline in multilateralism, the increased assertiveness of certain actors, and growing strategic competition between States, the risk of tensions having a direct impact on national interests and even on sovereignty itself constitutes a serious threat to national security, and may even lead to armed conflict. This situation is aggravated by institutional fragility and vacuums in certain nearby regions, whose internal conflicts may also affect Spain’s interests. If such instability is not contained in time, this could lead to even greater tensions in international relations, heightening the risk of conflicts between States at the regional level. In this climate of rising international tension, with certain actors rearming to further their strategic **Spain requires a** aspirations, Spain requires a credible and **credible and effective** effective deterrence capability and an autonomous **deterrence capability** defence capability to counter different forms of **and an autonomous** aggression, ranging from conventional conflict to **defence capability** hybrid strategies. Spain must also continue to be a committed and reliable partner of the European Union, NATO, the United Nations, and other multilateral defence and security organizations. In this context, and given the changing nature of conflicts, the traditional land, sea, and air domains are now joined by new spaces for competition, such as cyberspace and outer space. This requires new forms of action, as well as next-generation technologies, to maintain an up-to-date, modern response capability. ----- TERRORISM AND VIOLENT RADICALIZATION Political polarization and the economic crisis have contributed to an increase in the activity of violent extremists. Terrorist groups are using increasingly varied means, and physical attacks are perpetrated in tandem with propaganda campaigns that fuel violent radical ideologies. Particularly significant in this threat is jihadist terrorism, which is present in different European countries, as well as in the Sahel, the Maghreb and the Middle East, projecting a terrorist threat onto Spain. Moreover, there is a risk of attacks on Spanish nationals and interests in these regions. Within Spain’s borders, the main threat comes from individuals who were born or raised in Western countries and who, after becoming radicalized, attack their own area of residence. Equally relevant is the threat deriving from radicalization processes in prisons. The possible return of individuals who moved to conflict zones to support terrorist groups also constitutes a significant risk. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen counterterrorist and judicial cooperation and collaboration, not only between EU Member States, but also with third countries, using a multidisciplinary approach. EPIDEMICS AND PANDEMICS The crisis sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic not only claimed the lives of millions of people the world over, but has also had major social and economic consequences, with an unequal impact that has aggravated the existing gaps between countries, societies, and individuals. The difficulties experienced by international organizations as regards decisionmaking, and tensions involving the manufacture and distribution of medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines to combat the disease, have intensified existing geopolitical friction, and in certain cases, have hindered international cooperation. ----- Another crucial aspect highlighted by the pandemic is the fragility of global supply chains for certain strategic resources; there is a need to reduce dependence on other countries for essential resources in order to guarantee their accessibility at all times. THREATS TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Critical infrastructure is essential for everyday social and economic activity, and is subject to physical and digital threats that could lead to an interruption or denial of services. The steady digitalization process and the adoption of new technologies by critical operators and operators of essential services could heighten the risk of security breaches, which could enable a takeover of the operating systems of critical infrastructure, jeopardizing the continuity of the services they provide. **Critical infrastructure** **is essential for** **everyday social and** **economic activity** Another risk to take into consideration is the potential loss of strategic decisionmaking capacity resulting from investments by State or non-State actors with interests that are not necessarily aligned with national security. EMERGENCIES AND DISASTERS The security and safety of persons and goods is affected by the different types of emergencies and disasters due to natural causes or to accidental or deliberate human action. Some factors that heighten the risk of emergencies and disasters include rural depopulation and overpopulation of certain cities; the degradation of ecosystems, aggravated by the effects of climate change; and the rise in the magnitude and frequency of certain adverse weather events. ----- In this context, the main risks identified are floods, forest fires, earthquakes and tsunamis; volcanic risks; adverse weather events; accidents in installations or during processes using or storing dangerous substances; the transportation of dangerous cargo by road and rail; catastrophic passenger transportation accidents; and nuclear, radiological and biological risks. ESPIONAGE AND FOREIGN INTERFERENCE Rising competition and tensions on the international scene have led to an increase in interference from abroad, which Spain must counter. Some of the most effective tools used by certain countries that aspire to broaden their international influence are espionage activities. Spain’s membership in such organizations as the European Union and NATO make our country an attractive target. However, the targets of hostile intelligence services are not limited to the institutions and information of the Government of Spain; they also include other sectors, such as the defence industry, critical infrastructure, and scientific and technological research, as well as other private-sector spheres. These activities are critical for national security, and therefore may be targeted in attacks on economic competitiveness and intellectual property, especially in the field of science and research and other strategic sectors. Moreover, certain foreign actors are making high-profile efforts to influence their nationals based in Spain, thus affecting citizens’ rights and freedoms and, potentially, social stability. In other cases, the actions of foreign intelligence services do not target Spanish or allied interests, but use Spanish territory as a base for their operations in other countries, possibly violating national sovereignty. Classic intelligence activities and cyberespionage are both significant threats on their own. However, it must be borne in mind that the activities of hostile intelligence services may also form part of what are known as hybrid strategies. Within these strategies, espionage activities may become a significant element, and multiply the threat posed to national security. ----- DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGNS Disinformation campaigns have a clear impact on national security, and must be distinguished from other factors such as fake news or misinformation. Indeed, disinformation campaigns do not necessarily contain fake news; what they seek is to distort reality through manipulated content. In this regard, the cognitive sphere is just another area in which to exert influence, in addition to the traditional physical spheres of land, sea, and air. The elements that are inherent to a disinformation campaign include the intent to generate confusion and undermine social cohesion; the coordinated use of different media to create and disseminate content aimed at a wide audience; and the malicious intent to discredit or influence the target of the attack. Thus, disinformation campaigns constitute a serious threat to electoral processes. Due to their potential danger, disinformation strategies by foreign States or nonState actors must be identified, as they develop propaganda apparatuses aimed at polarizing society and undermining trust in institutions. CYBERSPACE VULNERABILITY Threats in cyberspace fall into two general categories. On the one hand, cyberattacks, understood as disruptive actions impacting on systems and technological elements; examples include ransomware attacks (data kidnapping) and denial-of-service attacks. On the other hand, the use of cyberspace to carry out illicit activities, such as cybercrime, cyberespionage, terrorism financing, or promoting radicalization. As individuals, companies, and administrations become more digitally exposed, their cyberattack surfaces expand. The dynamics determining greater use of digital networks include **There will be** the rise in remote working. Moreover, in the context **an increase in** of the fourth industrial revolution, the 5G roll-out will **vulnerability to** expand the reach of networks, and thus significantly **cyberattacks in** increase their use, not only by users but also in **devices connected** the Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine **to the network** communication segment. Consequently, connected ----- devices and services, such as autonomous vehicles and smart networks, will be more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Moreover, in the emerging virtual society, data constitutes a new sphere of power, affecting both the relationship between States and between the public and private sectors, given that tech companies have the greatest access to data. Information security affects citizens directly. Regulating, protecting, and guaranteeing the appropriate use of data and data networks all constitute key aspects of national security, with a direct impact on personal privacy. Technologies such as AI and Big Data increasingly underpin spheres such as health, transport, energy, business, finance, education, and the military. The capacity to process large amounts of data is an advanced characteristic for achieving desired objectives. The potential of data to transform, and to be applied in, risk analysis and early warning processes is constantly increasing. However, the development of these technologies also raises questions regarding security. The application of algorithms for automatic decision-making requires a framework to protect privacy and ensure non-discrimination. The use of autonomous systems also has ethical implications which call for monitoring mechanisms and parameters to guarantee respect for human rights. In the medium-to-long term, the technological leap represented by quantum computing will enable future uses in the spheres of secure communications, encryption and decryption, and advanced surveillance systems, among others, that today are still difficult to imagine. MARITIME SPACE VULNERABILITY Maritime space is considered one of the global commons, spaces characterized by the connectivity of flows of information, people, goods and services—the interruption of, or interference with which could have a severe economic impact. For Spain, a maritime nation, it is essential to maintain security in maritime spaces, as well as to ensure the functioning of critical infrastructure located along the coast and at sea, such as ports and submarine pipelines and, in particular, submarine cables, through which practically all data traffic is transmitted. ----- The economy is highly dependent on the proper use and good condition of these maritime spaces, given **Most Spanish** that Spain’s energy resources and most of its trade **trade passes along** passes along maritime routes. **maritime routes** Piracy and armed robbery at sea are a threat to safe navigation along the main maritime traffic routes and to the fishing fleet that flies the Spanish flag, primarily in the Somali Basin, the Gulf of Aden, and the Gulf of Guinea. Moreover, illicit trafficking, illegal exploitation of marine resources, and spoliation of underwater archaeological heritage are all harmful to the maritime sector. AEROSPACE VULNERABILITY The aeronautical sector is of great strategic importance. Any disruption affecting aircraft, airports, or ground facilities—in particular terrorist attacks—would have a major impact and considerable economic significance. Intense air connectivity between countries and continents is, moreover, one of the causes of the rapid spread of infectious diseases at the international level. One worrying trend is the rise in the illicit use of remotely piloted aircraft, which can bring airports and critical infrastructure to a standstill and are, moreover, potential weapons for sabotage or terrorist actions. Outer space is considered the final frontier of geopolitical confrontation. This global commons has become a domain for intensive commercial exploitation, with the proliferation of satellite constellations and commercial launchers. However, certain non-EU operators are on their way to reaching a degree of market dominance that could pose a threat both to access to space (launches) and to certain space services. In addition, the new satellite constellations could render the Spanish model of **Outer space is** **considered the** **final frontier** **of geopolitical** **confrontation** ----- public-private cooperation in governmental communications and earth observation unsustainable. Furthermore, the lack of legislation facilitates irregular activity in outer space and hinders the protection of strategic assets, such as satellite communications, positioning and timing systems, and earth observation satellites. Moreover, the security of space systems will be seriously affected by the increase in space debris and the lack of a global space traffic management system. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY The Covid-19 pandemic has provoked the greatest drop in GDP since World War II, resulting in a new economic crisis whose social consequences are still unknowable. Even if the economic impact is largely transitory and is followed by relatively high growth rates, economic instability and inequality have been heightened. The factors that could contribute to economic and financial instability include imbalances in Public Treasury financing channels; international financial instability; fraud, tax planning and evasion; corruption; money laundering; and the improper use of funds from grants and public contracts. These factors undermine economic security and provoke public distrust in government institutions. ORGANIZED CRIME AND SERIOUS CRIME Organized crime is a threat to security that is characterized by its essentially economic purpose, its devastating effect on political and social institutions, its transnational nature, and its opacity. Criminal groups and criminal organizations camouflage their illegal operations with licit businesses, and are increasingly supported by digital technologies, such as crypto-currencies and the dark web. In addition to its economic dimension, organized crime has significant destabilizing potential. Its structures adapt themselves to the geostrategic environments in which ----- they operate and have impacts on governance, the social order, and the normal functioning of institutions. As regards serious crime, activities such as the exploitation of minors or trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation target vulnerable groups and seriously violate human rights. Smuggling; cybercrime; trafficking in drugs, weapons, and wild species; and corruption are tangible threats to national security. The convergence between terrorist groups and organized crime networks is on the rise. The increasingly decentralized organizational models of these criminal actors facilitate cooperation and terrorism financing. IRREGULAR MIGRATORY FLOWS The complex, global, and multidimensional nature of migration in today’s world tends to blur traditional distinctions between countries of origin, destination, and transit. Economic, social, and environmental factors, as well as political instability, poverty, and conflict will continue to influence global migratory trends. Moreover, the higher number of options in terms of communication and movement favours a new era of human mobility. Together with opportunities, migratory movements will continue to generate challenges—including those of a security nature, in the broadest sense— and these will need to be managed. Development, both in countries of origin and in host countries, is being disrupted by the illicit activities of criminal organizations engaged in people smuggling and human trafficking, which proliferate around migratory movements and seriously violate human rights. Spain, due to its geostrategic position, will be especially exposed to the challenge represented by the expected rise in migratory flows towards Europe in the coming years. As an EU external border State, Spain views the management of irregular migratory flows as a significant challenge requiring a common migratory policy based on striking a fair balance between solidarity and shared responsibility between States. The risks deriving from irregular immigration directly affect the continuity of the Schengen Area. ----- ENERGY VULNERABILITY Transforming the energy sector will bring new risks associated with the green generation model. The availability of new raw materials, new storage technologies, renewable distributed generation, self-consumption, and efficiency are all aspects to be taken into account in the current energy equation. The incorporation of measures aimed at guaranteeing economic and territorial cohesion to mitigate the socio-economic effects of the changes in primary energy sources, such as the just transition, form part of this Strategy’s new vision for energy security. Although dependence on hydrocarbons from outside Spain will continue to be a factor of vulnerability in the coming years, the transition towards a new, economically sustainable and environmentally friendly energy model is the principal challenge of a sector that is key for both the economy and for security, with climate change representing a systemic risk at the global level. PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION The modernization of, and increase in, the nuclear arsenals of China, India, and Pakistan, together with the advances of the nuclear programme of North Korea and Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, have all contributed to an increasingly multipolar nuclear order. This scenario could give rise to a new arms race defined by the possible resumption of nuclear testing and the development of new weapons. Another factor to be considered is the precariousness of the prevailing treaties for controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. The biological threat—understood as the deliberate use of pathogens, toxins or harmful genetic elements or genetically modified organisms by States, individuals, criminal networks, or terrorist organizations—constitutes a real threat with potentially catastrophic consequences. The regime prohibiting chemical weapons is also facing major challenges, such as the attacks recorded in Syria in recent years. ----- Moreover, the risks deriving from the diversion and smuggling of dual-use materials are increasing considerably due to the transfer of technological knowledge and the global movement of goods. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Climate change is a threat to global security, and in Europe, it is a particularly serious threat to security in the Mediterranean area. This is why mitigating and adapting to climate change is becoming ever more urgent. Climate change is intensifying heat waves, the reduction of water resources, desertification, and **Climate change is** adverse weather events. Areas such as energy **a threat to global** security and environmental safety, and in particular, **security** water management, biodiversity, air quality, and the depopulation of agricultural or forest areas, are all affected by climate change. Climate risks of natural origin, such as floods and forest fires, are having an ever-greater impact on security, as they become increasingly frequent and severe. The deterioration of the environment, of biodiversity, and of eco-systemic services hampers access to basic resources such as drinking water, intensify existing conflicts; moreover, it can cause the forced displacement of persons, and generate food insecurity. ----- ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- # 4 Integrated Strategic Planning ----- Chapter 4 INTEGRATED STRATEGIC PLANNING _This chapter establishes the objectives of the Strategy and sets out_ _an integrated planning process for National Security Policy, with a_ _structure based on three strategic pillars: PROTECT, PROMOTE, AND_ _PARTICIPATE._ The National Security Strategy establishes three objectives: The first objective is to improve the crisis management model. This entails adopting an anticipatory approach, and focusing decision-making on the analysis of objective facts and data. The National Security System will focus its efforts on providing early warnings, formulating preventive measures, and strengthening coordination between all public bodies. This includes a framework of co-governance with Spain’s Autonomous Communities on issues in which decision-making powers have been devolved to the regional authorities, or are shared. Management of transnational crises requires the strengthening of EU coordinated action procedures, through risk monitoring mechanisms and the creation of joint databases for identifying and assessing potential risks and threats. ----- The **second objective is to favour the security dimensions of technological** capabilities and of strategic sectors. This requires incorporating security aspects into technological development, from its conception. It also calls for constant adaptations and updates affecting regulations, quality controls, and training. The promotion of R&D&i initiatives and projects is crucial to ensuring that public bodies and the business sector promote technological development aimed at preventing and combating risks and threats in strategic sectors, such as food security, health, and cybersecurity. In particular, it is necessary to be aware of the strategic potential of AI, and this technology’s key role in underpinning national security. The **third objective is to develop Spain’s capabilities as regards prevention,** deterrence, detection, and response to hybrid strategies, in a security context in which conventional threats are combined with the use of economic, technological, diplomatic, and information-related means, as elements of pressure and destabilization. The Strategy establishes three strategic pillars on which the National Security Policy’s lines of action (L.A.) are founded: - A Spain that PROTECTS people’s lives, rights, and freedoms, and the constitutional order. - A Spain that PROMOTES the prosperity and well-being of its citizens. - A Spain that PARTICIPATES in the preservation of international peace and security, and defends its strategic interests. Many of these lines of action include elements involving alignment or convergence with EU and international measures, thus reflecting the global nature of most threats to national security. A culture of national security is an important factor in developing and consolidating the National Security Policy, because social awareness strengthens the resilience of society and of the State. To this end, it is essential to undertake the actions included in the Comprehensive Plan for a Culture of National Security, with the collaboration of the public administrations, the private sector, and civil society, in the following four spheres: training; public communication and dissemination; external profile; and the active participation of citizens and civil society organizations. ----- ----- ----- PILLAR ONE: A Spain that protects people’s lives, rights, and freedoms, and the constitutional order Strengthening the capabilities of the fundamental components of national security— national defence, external action, and public security, supported by the State intelligence and information services—and bolstering public health, civil protection, and the protection of critical infrastructure are key to addressing threats to Spain’s interests and values, in addition to contributing to its territorial cohesion. Deterrence and defence Protecting national sovereignty, as well as the people and their freedoms, requires the availability of sufficient, technologically advanced military capabilities, which contribute to guaranteeing a credible deterrence, based on the premise that diplomacy and international law are the principal instruments for protecting national interests. This improvement in military capabilities associated with deterrence and defence must be sustainable in the long term, thus necessitating a stable budget framework. It also demands an active policy of public-private collaboration that firmly supports Spain’s industrial and technological sector for security and defence. Adapting to the new strategic scenario requires guaranteeing capabilities that cover the entire spectrum of the crisis or conflict, from combat operations to crisis management support for civil authorities. Spain will contribute to NATO’s capacity to carry out collective defence tasks, manage crises, and respond to disasters and catastrophes, within a global vision that incorporates all aspects of conflicts and operations. Moreover, Spain will work to integrate its national command and control systems into the corresponding international and allies’ systems. ----- DETERRENCE AND DEFENCE L.A. 1. Ensure the necessary military capabilities to provide a credible deterrent and an effective response across the entire spectrum of the crisis or conflict, guaranteeing its sustainability over time under a sufficient and stable budget framework. L.A. 2. Strengthen defence capabilities through research, development, and technological innovation that offer a strategic advantage. L.A. 3. Develop the defence, security, and space industries, as well as the dual technologies sector, through public-private cooperation and by harnessing synergies with existing tools, both nationally and in the international security and defence organizations to which Spain belongs, particularly the European Defence Fund and the Permanent Structured Cooperation of the European Union. ----- Combating terrorism and violent radicalization Reducing society’s vulnerability requires neutralizing the threat represented by terrorist actions targeting Spanish citizens and interests both within and beyond its borders, and tackling the radicalization processes that lead to violent extremism. In addition to the role of the law enforcement agencies and the intelligence services, the participation of the armed forces in international counterterrorism missions is fundamental to addressing this threat, as is the coordinated action of all of these actors. The main vectors of these threats—and those against which efforts must be concentrated—are individuals acting alone, foreign terrorist fighters, jihadist and extremist propaganda, and radicalization in prisons. It is also necessary to participate in international initiatives whose purpose is to prevent certain areas from becoming safe havens for terrorists, whether due to the weakness of the governments of these territories or due to their ideological affinity with jihadist groups. Counterterrorism is based on four pillars: prevent, protect, prosecute, and respond. These pillars serve as a basis for developing the main measures for countering this threat. This is expressly set forth in the 2019 National Counterterrorism Strategy, which is the primary national reference document on this issue and encompasses two fundamental plans: the 2020 National Strategic Plan to Prevent and Combat Violent Radicalization and the 2020 National Strategic Plan to Combat Terrorism Financing. With respect to radicalization, it is essential to intensify citizen collaboration, and it is a priority to create Prevention Offices in Delegations of the central government in the regions, and prevention groups in the Local Security Boards. In the case of those Autonomous Communities that already have their own programmes, coordination will be carried out in accordance with their structure and design. In addition, the tools for preventing, detecting and monitoring radicalization processes must be promoted and updated, generally with citizen collaboration— and in prisons, with treatment programmes and radicalization risk assessment. As regards terrorism financing, interoperability between the systems in place in the different institutions will enable the identification of the actors involved and the complete traceability of funds which could be used for terrorist purposes. ----- To curb terrorist activities and online radicalization and to comply with EU law, a National Internet Content Notification Unit will be created to monitor and remove illicit content from the internet. In addition, the protection and prevention plan for combating foreign terrorism, which is focused on providing assistance to Spanish citizens and/or assets that are victims of terrorist attacks perpetrated outside Spain, must be updated. COMBATING TERRORISM AND VIOLENT RADICALIZATION L.A. 4. Develop tools and capabilities that strengthen counterterrorism investigations conducted by the pertinent bodies, and strengthen the coordination of these bodies. L.A. 5. Promote the development and implementation of the National Strategic Plan to Prevent and Combat Violent Radicalization (PENCRAV) and of the National Strategic Plan to Combat Terrorism Financing (PENCFIT). L.A. 6. Step up Spain’s contribution to international counterterrorism initiatives and promote training and capacity-building in bodies and institutions with counterterrorism powers in those countries that are particularly affected. L.A. 7. Promote prevention capabilities in the fight against activities linked to terrorism and violent extremism, especially on the internet and in social networks. L.A. 8. Update the plan for protecting against and preventing domestic and foreign terrorism. ----- Responding to crisis situations When faced with threats that transcend ordinary response frameworks, the crisis management of the National Security System must, first of all, be equipped with a reporting system that supports decision-making through the analysis of indicators that provide early warnings regarding national security risks and threats. Secondly, it must have a secure communications network that enables data integration and offers a response from a national command and control structure. Thirdly, it must have an up-to-date catalogue of human and material resources, as well as preparedness and resource availability plans to tackle crisis situations. All of this must be encompassed in an up-to-date National Security legislative framework. Moreover, dependence on foreign countries for the supply of strategic resources represents a vulnerability which must be mitigated, at both the national and EU levels, with an appropriate industrial policy supporting the production capacity of national resources. Among the sectoral measures, the fight against epidemics and pandemics calls for the modernization of the national epidemiological surveillance system, based on the lessons learned from managing the Covid-19 pandemic. The national public health surveillance system must be updated to enable a rapid and appropriate response. **A versatile and** **digitalized early** **warning system** **enabling a rapid** **response is essential** In the National Civil Protection System, the consolidation of functional structures and coordination networks, together with the allocation of the necessary resources, will facilitate the management of emergencies and disasters, pursuant to the General State Plan for Civil Protection Emergencies. Moreover, it is important to ensure the continuous, real-time exchange of information between the National Civil Protection System and the National Security System in the event of a disaster. Critical infrastructure constitutes another pillar on which the physical resilience of a country is based. This infrastructure includes health, energy, food, transport, and water supply. Its proper functioning is vital and cannot be replaced with any alternative solution; therefore, its disruption or destruction would have a serious impact on essential services. ----- It is crucial to promote the preventive dimension of the national critical infrastructure protection system, placing particular emphasis on protecting the IT systems of critical infrastructure, and of operators of essential services, from cyberthreats. In this regard, public-private collaboration and R&D&i are key to strengthening resilience against cyberattacks. The Autonomous Cities of Ceuta and Melilla, due to their location in North Africa and the specific characteristics of their Spanish and European border, require particular attention from the central administration to guarantee the safety and well-being of their citizens. ----- ADDRESSING CRISIS SITUATIONS L.A. 9. Develop the National Security System comprehensive crisis management model by drafting crisis management regulations; implementing an indicator-based early warning system; creating a catalogue of resources and preparedness and resource availability plans; and designing a preparedness exercise plan in the national security framework. L.A.10. Create a strategic reserve based on national industrial production capacities, with a triple focus:: a) Identify the essential industrial resources of the different public administrations and of the private sector corresponding to their respective spheres of authority. b) Guarantee the supply of those goods and services that are considered essential and strategic. c) Safeguard the industrial base supplying essential and strategic resources, including electronic components, strategic materials, high technology machinery, aeronautics, semiconductors, essential chemicals, advanced agricultural equipment, communication technology, and healthcare equipment. L.A. 11. Modernize the national public health surveillance system by renewing healthcare technologies and IT systems. The Digital Strategy for the National Health Service will include measures to improve prevention, diagnosis, surveillance, and health management under a framework of co-governance with the Autonomous Communities. L.A. 12. Prepare a Comprehensive Security Plan for Ceuta and Melilla. ----- Counterintelligence, the fight against disinformation campaigns, and action against foreign interference To protect Spain’s interests it is essential to prevent, detect, and neutralize covert attacks from outside Spain, whose objective is to illegally obtain sensitive information to attack Spain’s international image or to conduct interference actions. This entails strengthening and integrating the Intelligence Services’ capabilities for addressing espionage and operations in cyberspace, threats which are assuming ever-greater relevance due to their capacity to destabilize State institutions and due to their impact on citizens’ lives and freedom. To this end, it is essential that the Spanish Intelligence Services maintain their position at the vanguard of such services in the European Union. In this regard, their human and technological capabilities will be enhanced, to ensure that they continue to maximize the advantages linked to appropriate data management and processing, such as AI, quantum computing, and the cloud. Moreover, efforts will be made to ensure that the necessary legislative updates are made to guarantee both the rights of Spanish citizens and the capacity of the Intelligence Services to act in their defence. Protecting Spain’s scientific and technological heritage will require an additional effort by the National Intelligence Centre (CNI), the National Cryptology Centre (CCN), and the National Security Office (ONS). Greater efforts will be required to raise awareness of actions carried out by hostile intelligence services in the sphere of national industry and other strategic sectors. In addition, it will be crucial to strengthen the National Security Office, in line with the growing importance of protecting classified information as an essential National Security resource. This measure will in turn favour the participation of Spanish industry in classified programmes abroad. In addition, tackling disinformation campaigns, which undermine citizens’ trust in democratic institutions and lead to social polarization, requires making systematic use of detection, early warnings, and notifications, as well as coordinating the response, always in harmony with the guidelines and the work carried out in the European Union. Public-private collaboration, especially with the media and ----- suppliers of social networks, and raising citizen awareness are other key aspects when it comes to detecting and tackling disinformation campaigns. National initiatives will be coordinated with existing EU plans, such as the Action Plan against Disinformation and the European Democracy Action Plan. ----- COUNTERINTELLIGENCE AND COMBATING DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGNS AND FOREIGN INTERFERENCE L.A. 13. Prepare a National Strategy for Combating Disinformation Campaigns. L.A. 14. Increase the capabilities of the Spanish Intelligence Services against attacks by hostile intelligence services, particularly in cyberspace. L.A. 15. Strengthen the capacities of the National Security Office and guarantee an adequate legal framework for the protection of classified information. L.A. 16. Strengthen international cooperation in counterintelligence. ----- PILLAR TWO: A Spain that promotes the prosperity and wellbeing of its citizens In a context characterized by the need for economic recovery, achieving inclusive growth and job creation will require forward-looking policies on investment in innovation and competitiveness that will strengthen the long-term resilience of our society. Security of the global commons Everyday social and economic activity depends, to a large extent, on the free circulation of persons, goods, services and ideas throughout the global commons: cyberspace, maritime space, air space, and outer space. These commons are characterized by their functional openness, lack of physical borders, and easy accessibility. Furthermore, it is difficult to attribute responsibility for any irregular or criminal action in the global commons, given their size, weak regulation, and lack of sovereignty. Cyberspace The safe and reliable use of cyberspace must be guaranteed to protect the rights and freedoms of citizens and to promote socio-economic progress. To this end, it is important to increase the technological, human, and economic capabilities of national cybersecurity aimed at prevention, detection, response, recovery, investigation, and active defence. Spain’s Charter of Digital Rights represents a step forward in the protection of citizens’ rights in the current virtual environment. This progress includes the recognition of the right to equality in digital spheres, and the rights to non-discrimination and nonexclusion. In the public administrations, it is vital to move ahead with the national cybersecurity governance model, maximizing the efficiency of resources and integrating national capabilities. ----- In this regard, the Cybersecurity Operations Centre, by providing horizontal services, will enable Spain to step up its surveillance, detection, and response capabilities with respect to cyberattacks against the central administration and its public bodies, as well as against regional and local administrations. The development of cybersecurity infrastructure in Spain’s Autonomous Communities and Autonomous Cities will be of particular relevance. Additional priorities include the creation of a system for observing and measuring the national cybersecurity situation and the implementation of a national platform for reporting and monitoring cyberincidents to enable measurement of the exchange of information between public and private bodies in real time. It will, moreover, be essential to implement the new requirements envisaged in the EU Cybersecurity Strategy for the Digital Decade, and in adaptations of new legislative proposals, which must include the provisions necessary to protect networks and systems. Maritime space The Maritime Security Strategy promotes a comprehensive approach that seeks to strengthen the coordinated and cooperative action of the different administrations; to adopt measures to bolster the capacity of the Spanish State to take action at sea and along the Spanish coastline; to foster collaboration with the private sector; and, lastly, to promote international cooperation, in particular through International Maritime Organization initiatives, the European Union Maritime Security Strategy, and NATO’s Maritime Strategy. One of the priorities in the maritime sphere is the security and safety of Spain’s merchant and fishing fleets in national and international waters. Moreover, in a national security context, it is crucial that there be preventive planning that provides effective responses to complex situations requiring concerted action by the different bodies engaged in the maritime domain. This entails introducing AI technologies into maritime systems, platforms, and surveillance sensors, to modernize maritime capabilities. ----- Airspace and outer space It is essential to guarantee security in airspace and outer space within a shared framework aimed at countering the risks and threats that arise in these environments, and neutralizing their impacts, in accordance with the principles of efficiency and maximum coordination, both in the use of analysis and assessment capabilities and of those for responding to risks and threats. Given their proliferation, the threat posed by remotely piloted aircraft calls for urgent action. The space industry is key for national security due to the services it provides. It is essential to develop a security policy for outer space based on international cooperation, in which the collaboration of all the actors involved constitutes an intrinsic part. In this regard, Spain must join all international initiatives aimed at preserving the peaceful use of outer space, paying particular attention to EU space programmes. In view of the rapid evolution of this sector, it is vital to achieve an effective and efficient distribution of competences in space between the different bodies involved. The creation of a Spanish Space Agency will contribute to organizing areas of authority and establishing a national policy that serves as a guide for both the public and private sectors. It will thus be possible to maximize returns on investments, promote areas for public and private collaboration, facilitate the dual use of space capabilities, and strengthen the national space industry clearly and coherently. Moreover, the Agency will represent Spain internationally in the space industry. ----- SECURITY OF THE GLOBAL COMMONS In cyberspace: L.A. 17. Move ahead with the integration of the cybersecurity governance model into the framework of the National Security System. In maritime space: L.A. 18. Prepare risk scenarios and preparedness and response plans for those situations considered to be of particular concern for national security in the sphere of maritime security. In airspace and outer space: L.A. 19. Create the Spanish Space Agency, with a component dedicated to national security, to lead efforts relating to space, to efficiently coordinate the different national bodies with responsibilities in the space industry and to unify international collaboration and coordination.. ----- Economic and financial stability A just, stable, and secure economic context is a prerequisite for progress and favours both job creation and the competitiveness of Spanish business and industry. The economic strategy for addressing the crisis resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic is set forth in the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan. This Plan provides a roadmap for modernizing the Spanish economy, for post-Covid recovery of economic growth and job creation, as well as responses to the challenges of the coming decade. The measures adopted must be accompanied by a robust and progressive fiscal policy that respects the principles of budget stability and financial sustainability, promoting measures against tax evasion, money laundering, and corruption. Moreover, to implement a preventive policy and anticipate possible crises, it is important to monitor systemic risks and disseminate warnings regarding aspects that could have an impact on financial stability. Furthermore, ensuring the sustainability of economic growth in the medium term demands promoting the modernization and productivity of the Spanish industrial ecosystem. This also makes sense as regards certain assets that are strategic for national security and that attract direct foreign investment. Technology, health, the aerospace industry, and renewable energy—the latter being an area in which Spain holds a leadership position—are all strategic industrial sectors for security. These sectors must be promoted, in an open economy, in line with EU legislation and the EU coordination mechanism, and also with a view to safeguarding the value chain, contributing to greater strategic autonomy and thereby to greater resilience in crisis situations. ----- ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY L.A. 20. Strengthen the modernization and productivity of Spain’s industrial ecosystem by promoting the competitiveness of strategic sectors that are key for national security, in line with the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan. ----- Combating organized crime and serious crime Public policies against organized crime and serious crime must aim at the early identification of criminal activity, and its effective prevention, prosecution, and eradication. To this end, it is necessary to promote the coordinated action of the intelligence services, law enforcement agencies, and tax and judicial authorities. Public institutions must wage a direct campaign against crime, in addition to raising social awareness about it. A Strategic Plan for Combating Crime was approved in March 2020. Neutralizing the organized crime economy requires instruments that improve intelligence and detection, in addition to new cybersecurity capabilities. To this end, it is necessary to establish a strategic plan that addresses money laundering, and asset tracing and recovery. The development of a plan against the trafficking and exploitation of human beings, especially of women and girls, will contribute to addressing social inequalities that generate crime, and the vulnerability of certain groups to hate crimes. Moreover, it is essential to establish specific action plans, such as the plan for the Strait of Gibraltar, for combating organized crime in those geographical areas that are especially susceptible to its inception, action, and entrenchment. Furthermore, new channels must be promoted for the prevention, investigation, and analysis of the ties between organized crime and terrorism. ----- COMBATING ORGANIZED CRIME AND SERIOUS CRIME L.A. 21. Design a strategic plan to combat the illicit enrichment of criminal organizations and offenders. L.A. 22. Design a specific strategic national plan against the trafficking and exploitation of human beings. ----- Organizing migratory flows The organization of migratory flows and the fight against irregular migration and human trafficking networks are matters requiring the constant attention of the public administrations, and the involvement of the third sector and of civil society. Coordinating mechanisms to improve the efficiency and integration of all the efforts and capabilities of the public administrations will result in greater effectiveness and coherence in managing migration. From a comprehensive, preventive perspective, collaboration with the countries of origin and transit is absolutely necessary to reducing irregular migration towards Spain. This is why it is essential to strengthen and increase the scope and number of bilateral and EU collaboration agreements, particularly in the Maghreb, the Sahel, and West Africa. In addition, establishing new channels for regular migration and improving existing channels is an essential part of the commitment to African countries. Border control and surveillance is of fundamental importance in this sphere. On the one hand, it is a shared responsibility, including the countries of origin and transit, to which help must be offered to enable them to increase their capabilities and resources. On the other hand, as regards the external borders of the European Union, irregular immigration is the responsibility not only of the EU border countries, but of all EU partners. In addition to maritime and land routes, it is also imperative to monitor arrivals by air, whether from Africa or from other continents, secondary movements towards or from Spain, and illegal prolongations of stay that result in irregular immigration. Other important concerns include the early identification of vulnerable groups and of potential beneficiaries of international protection, and the improvement of centres equipped to provide them with assistance. Spanish legislation needs to be updated for the purposes of: optimizing search and rescue capabilities at sea; humanitarian assistance; the reception, preliminary identification, and processing of immigrants throughout the migration cycle, including determination of the status of applicants for international protection. ----- The integration of migrants is fundamental to achieving a more prosperous, cohesive, and resilient society. To attain this objective, it is crucial to improve coordination between the three levels of the public administration and to establish public policies aimed at eradicating all forms of discrimination, racism, and xenophobia. ORGANIZING MIGRATORY FLOWS L.A. 23. Establish a comprehensive and collaborative information system at the level of the central administration, enabling timely knowledge of the status of immigration flows, the resources committed to their management, and the needs identified. L.A. 24. Strengthen relationships and agreements with countries of origin and transit to achieve orderly migration and prevent human trafficking. ----- Energy security and ecological transition The energy transition towards a more sustainable model—one that includes a higher percentage of renewable energy and contributes to achieving climate neutrality and greater strategic autonomy—introduces new opportunities and challenges, in addition to the need to guarantee the security of supply and transportation of hydrocarbons over the coming years. Renewable energy and the energy system infrastructure, and in particular renewable energy grids, have their own geopolitical repercussions. Therefore, technologies associated with the energy transition, facilities and new materials, such as rare earth elements, are gaining ground in preference over more traditional resources, such as oil and gas. The changes in the energy matrix entail the incorporation of new technologies and, therefore, greater dependency thereon. The new energy paradigm calls for a review of the 2015 National Energy Security Strategy, and for its proper updating and adaptation to this new context, in which, moreover, the European Green Deal and the 2015 Paris Agreement must also be taken into account. The 2021-2030 National Climate Change Adaptation Plan is the basic planning instrument for promoting coordinated, consistent action between ministries, the Autonomous Communities, and local entities. ----- ENERGY SECURITY AND ECOLOGICAL TRANSITION L.A. 25. Update the National Energy Security Strategy to establish targets and lines of action in line with the ecological, energy, and economic transition. ----- PILLAR THREE: A Spain that participates in the preservation of international peace and security and defends its strategic interests Spain is a staunch defender of respecting and complying with international law. At the same time, it recognizes the need for certain reforms of the international system. In particular, Spain advocates a review of the United Nations system—a central pillar of concerted multilateral action for conflict prevention, humanitarian action, and the achievement of peace—to attain a more streamlined and effective organization, one that is equipped to tackle the global challenges of today’s world. Moreover, global governance mechanisms are suited to managing public goods such as public health, food safety and security, and the environment. A preventive and cooperative security approach is the principal criterion of Spain’s commitment to the international community. Moreover, Spain promotes a comprehensive approach to the resolution of conflicts abroad, based on multidimensional cooperation that strengthens governance, security, and progress. Gender equality is a hallmark of Spain’s foreign action, as is the achievement of the Women, Peace and Security Agenda, with the objective of advancing towards real and effective equality worldwide. Strengthened multilateralism Spain is committed to international peace and security. The global threats of the 21st century, such as pandemics and the effects of climate change, cannot be countered by one country acting alone. What is called for is concerted action founded on strengthened multilateralism, with the United Nations serving as a primary reference at world level. Spain’s proposal includes initiatives aimed at ensuring that the World Health Organization is a more effective instrument. Moreover, arms control measures designed for today’s multipolar world, and taking China into account, must also be promoted. ----- STRENGTHENED MULTILATERALISM L.A. 26. Bolster preventive diplomacy and Spain’s role as an active and committed actor in conflict mediation abroad. L.A. 27. Step up support for the international regime for disarmament and for the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, by updating the international regime for monitoring, exportation, and verification. L.A. 28. Promote the implementation of the objectives of Spain’s Second National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security as regards mainstreaming the gender perspective and ensuring the significant participation of women in conflict prevention, management, and resolution, and the consolidation of peace. ----- European strategic autonomy Strategic autonomy means the European Union’s assuming greater geopolitical influence on the world stage, which could be used to redress asymmetries of influence between major actors; to promote just governance in response to global challenges such as technological development, climate change, and combating pandemics; and to defend the EU’s values and interests. Strategic autonomy transcends defence. Building the European health security framework, acting to increase the resilience of supply chains, advancing towards greater energy security, and promoting technological sovereignty all form part of the broad spectrum of policies aimed at strengthening European security and the Union’s status as a global actor. In this regard, it is crucial to reduce the strategic dependencies on raw materials and essential components of industrial value chains by diversifying production and supply, maintaining reserves and promoting production and investment in Europe. An essential pillar of European security is to deepen complementarity between the European Union and NATO. A Europe with heightened capabilities makes the Atlantic Alliance stronger, and vice versa. When the European allies shoulder a greater share of responsibility in the security and defence sphere, this strengthens the commitment adopted. Another key issue is the fostering of greater police, military, intelligence, and judicial cooperation in the European Union to combat terrorism, organized crime, and serious crime. ----- FOR EUROPEAN STRATEGIC AUTONOMY L.A. 29. Promote decisive leadership in the formulation and development of the Common Security and Defence Policy, in line with the conclusions obtained from the European security review process. L.A. 30. Strengthen the strategic autonomous capabilities of the European Union, including the construction of the Europe of Defence and the development of European industrial and technological capabilities. ----- Higher profile in NATO Collective defence is a core element of national security. The best guarantee of Spain’s commitment to multilateralism as the optimal vehicle for protecting interests and values against shared threats to security is our participation in NATO. A comprehensive vision of security risks and threats, which encompasses the challenges presented by the southern flank, must be duly considered in the strategic reflection undertaken by NATO. HIGHER PROFILE IN NATO L.A. 31. To participate actively in the NATO Strategic Concept review, through the following actions: a) Promote greater convergence with the European Union on technological policies b) Emphasize the importance of the southern flank, particularly of the Sahel, for European and transatlantic security. c) Maintain Spain’s contribution to NATO operations in Eastern Europe and to the Missile Defence System as a deterrent. ----- Conservation of the environment, sustainable development, and the fight against climate change The effects of climate change constitute one of the most pressing threats to national security due to their cross-cutting impacts in spheres as diverse as energy security, emergencies and disasters, conflicts, and the displacement of persons due to environmental degradation and natural disasters. In particular, a significant security nexus lies in potential conflicts deriving from the effects of climate change in the most vulnerable countries. To this end, the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan advocates preventive development assistance policies, which focus on building resilience through early detection. This requires identifying those places most vulnerable to climate change in order to prioritize action. The commitments adopted in the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda are reflected in Spain’s National Action Plan for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, which constitutes the main national reference for advancing in the fight against the climate crisis. CONSERVATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, AND THE FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE L.A. 32. Integrate the 2030 Agenda into development cooperation policies, to strengthen the most vulnerable countries’ climate- change preparedness capabilities. L.A. 33. Pursue those objectives of the peace, security, and social cohesion component of the 2021-2030 National Climate Change Adaptation Plan that seek to prevent possible conflicts through early detection, by identifying situations that could represent threats to international peace and security. ----- ## NSS ### 2021 ----- # 5 The National Security System and Crisis Management ----- Chapter 5 THE NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT _The fifth chapter of the Strategy presents an integrated model for_ _effectively addressing crisis situations in a preventive, streamlined_ _manner in the framework of the National Security System._ he National Security System comprises all the bodies, entities, resources, and procedures that enable the State to act to protect the freedom and wellbeing of its citizens, to guarantee the defence of Spain and of its constitutional T principles and values, and to contribute to international security together with our partners and allies. ----- The National Security Council is the cornerstone of the National Security System, and is the body responsible for supervising and coordinating crisis management actions. These actions are aimed at: - Detecting and assessing specific national security risks and threats. - Facilitating decision-making. - Ensuring an optimal and coordinated response using the necessary State resources. To carry out these actions, the National Security Council is assisted by the Situation Committee—a singular specialized committee that serves the entire System. The Situation Committee will be supported by the other specialized committees, in their respective sectors, in all aspects related to risk and threat assessment, in the analysis of possible crisis scenarios, particularly those that could lead to a situation of concern for national security, and in the evaluation of results. AN ADVANCED CRISIS MANAGEMENT MODEL In a security environment characterized by its considerable complexity and rapid pace of change, hard-to-foresee events with substantial security impacts become more likely to occur. Their prevention and management call for detection and early warning instruments capable of integrating and analysing all available information. A comprehensive approach to guarantee resilience A comprehensive, resilience-based approach covers all phases of crisis management, from normality to post-crisis recovery. This approach entails implementing streamlined structures and processes that enable the adoption of anticipatory policies, assisted by the system’s digitalization. Furthermore, the concept of resilience must be integrated into the crisis management model at all levels, incorporating both coordination between all public administrations (central, regional, and local), and between ministries, the private sector, science institutions, and civil society. ----- To this end, and in line with similar developments in the European Union and NATO, Spain’s Situation Committee will guarantee, in the context of crisis management, a comprehensive government- and society-wide approach to stepping up resilience against the entire spectrum of national security risks and threats—paying particular attention to hybrid strategies, given the multidimensional and coordinated nature of this type of threat, which seeks to undermine the stability of States and institutions.. Structures and processes In the framework of the National Security System, the supervision and coordination of crisis management is a function of the National Security Council, assisted by the Situation Committee. The Department of National Security supports the Situation Committee by integrating and analysing information from all authorities and bodies, early warnings, situation monitoring, and preventive technical assessment and response actions. This support will be extended through the liaison and coordination mechanisms of the National Security System, including both permanent and strengthened coordination mechanisms. In this way, it will be possible to activate a coordination cell, formed by representatives from all the ministries and bodies involved in responding to and managing the crisis. Moreover, the Department of National Security was created to serve as a point of entry and liaison with crisis management systems at the political-strategic level of the European Union (Integrated Political Crisis Response Mechanism) and NATO, except as regards national defence and civil protection. For the purposes of proper preparation and training, it would be advisable to carry out political-strategic crisis management exercises on a regular basis. The general objective of these exercises will be to activate the structure and procedures of the National Security System, practising crisis management with respect to a situation of concern for national security. Moreover, the members of the National Security System will, when necessary, participate in the exercises of international organizations. ----- System development The following initiatives will be undertaken to develop national capabilities for managing crisis situations: **•** **Catalogue of national security resources** A dynamic catalogue will be prepared of strategic State sector resources that can be made available to the competent authorities. Both the public and private sectors will participate in its preparation. To this end, Spain’s Autonomous Communities will prepare their own catalogues of resources, which will be integrated into the central State catalogue, on the basis of their competences and the information provided by the Government. **•** **Preparedness and resource availability plans** These will be prepared for those scenarios approved by the National Security Council for which, based on the analysis of risks and threats, it is considered advisable to have them. **•** **Indicator-based early warning system** The integrated model for effectively managing crisis situations in a preventive and streamlined manner is based on a system that will enable decisions to be made in accordance with the information provided by objective impact assessment data and scientific evidence. A system of key indicators for national security will be developed for this purpose. Monitoring and analysis of these indicators will enable the roll-out of preventive actions and, if necessary, the timely implementation of response and management measures. **•** **Integration of national security information** The technological solutions adopted to assess the security situation and support strategic analysis will be based on knowledge management and ----- feature AI techniques. These developments will enable the integration and analysis of all relevant information, its distribution and availability to all the actors involved in crisis management, and system interoperability. **Development of special communications of the Presidency of the** **Government** A National Security System management instrument will be established through special communications. This instrument will serve for coordination purposes and for the exchange of classified information on crisis management. **Integration of the Autonomous Communities and Autonomous Cities** **in the National Security System** It is incumbent upon the Sectoral Conference for National Security Issues to facilitate cooperation between the State and the Autonomous Communities on national security matters of common interest. It is absolutely vital that all actors involved in a crisis situation should have access to the special communications of the Presidency of the Government to ensure their effective integration into the National Security System. Consequently, a plan to progressively expand this network will be developed over the next five years. ----- ----- **i** **S** **i** S G ----- G **i** **S** **i** S ----- ----- ----- -----