# Increasing Slovenia's defence capacity


The following are the Conclusions of the Strategic
Defence Review. The Review was carried out at the
Ministry of Defence in order to obtain the answers
to questions on the current defence capacity of the
Republic of Slovenia. It allows us to understand
the situation and the reasons why national defen­
ce is not at the expected level. I believe that, thro­
ugh diligent work and thorough analyses, we have
acquired a good basis for directing the further de­
velopment of the defence system, along with its ca­
pabilities, so that it will be able to function effective­
ly and in accordance with its mission. The activities
that will have to be carried out in order to accom­
plish the set objectives have now been more preci­
sely defined.
The fact is that Slovenia, together with other Europe­
an countries, is facing a complex and highly dyna­
mic security environment. There is instability in both
its eastern and southern European neighbourho­
od. No part of Europe is safe from the operation of
extremists. Hybrid operations require renewed and
strengthened military and non-military defence me­
chanisms and the increased resilience of countries.
This changed security environment has been reco­
gnized both at the level of NATO and the European
Union. In response to new threats, the North Atlan­
tic Alliance opted for a strategy based on the deter­
rence of potential aggression; a strategy that would
limit threats and protects against them, and establi­
sh the necessary responsiveness and preparedness
to allow the successful defence of its members. The
EU Global Strategy is focused on strengthening the
mechanisms of mutual assistance for the provision
of security and stability.
The Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Slove­
nia recognizes the changed security situation, whi­
ch requires appropriate defence capabilities in or­
der to address future sources of threats and risks to
national and international security.


The Strategic Defence Review has shown that the
main objectives of the further development of the
defence system and defence capacity of the Re­
public of Slovenia are the provision of necessary
defence capabilities, greater resilience of the sta­
te and society against security threats, the impro­
ved preparedness and sustainability of the Slo­
venian Armed Forces, and the pursuit of common
objectives and commitments in the framework of the
EU and NATO. Unfortunately, the transition from a
mass to a predominantly professional army supple­
mented by the contract reserve has not allowed the
defence system to achieve the necessary capabili­
ties and sustainability of the Slovenian Armed For­
ces to carry out the tasks arising from the national
security documents.
The Strategic Defence Review was conducted in the
year in which Slovenia celebrated 25 years of inde­
pendence. This anniversary reminded us of the bro­
ad political and social unity and the importance of
Slovenian security and defence forces, without whi­
ch autonomy would not exist. Now, 25 years after
independence, Slovenia is not faced with such mile­
stone events, but decisions on the future of the nati­
onal security are no less important. The security of
the country and its citizens is not self-evident and
should not be taken for granted. We are aware that
the efforts to reform the fundamental legal, strategic
guidance and planning documents will require tho­
ughtfulness, maturity and selflessness in shaping the
political and social consensus.
The defence capacity of a country is not a separa­
te responsibility. The strength of the Alliance is ba­
sed on the strength of its individual members. Each
member state is required to provide the necessary
level of national defence and resilience. History te­
aches us that we must be able to provide our own
defence. Our Allies will support us and provide for
certain missing defence capabilities, but they will


not conduct defence on our behalf.
Awareness of the necessity of changing our appro­
ach in addressing the questions of national security
and defence is of crucial importance in both politi­
cal and academic circles and the public. The Mini­
stry of Defence will continue to strive for a broad
political and expert discussion of interests, objec­
tives and ambitions in the field of defence, and in
particular of the further development of the Slove­
nian Armed Forces.
As Minister of Defence, I am committed to ensuring
that the Ministry of Defence continues to lead a pro­
fessional discussion within its powers, and to deve­
lop solutions with the goal of ensuring an effective
and resilient defence system which will provide the
necessary level of the country's defence.

Andreja Katič
_Minister_

Part 5 gives an overview of the objectives to
be pursued in order to improve the defence of
the state, and the main activities to be carried
out to this end.
Part 6 presents the conclusions on the status
of the defence system and further steps in its
development.


## Conclusions of the Strategic Defence Review 2016


**CONTENTS**
Part 1 is devoted to understanding the pro­
cess of preparing the Strategic Defence Re­
view, with an emphasis on its objectives and
purpose.
Part 2 presents the current position, which is
the basis for directing the operations of the
defence system of the Republic of Slovenia,


vernment of the Republic of Slovenia.
Part 3 defines the international security envi­
ronment and the current and future security ri­
sks and threats.
Part 4 presents the main findings on the de­
fence of the Republic of Slovenia and the re­
asons for the fact that its ability to address


-----

In February 2016, the Government of the Re­
public of Slovenia adopted the Medium-Term
Defence Programme of the Republic of Slo­
venia for 2016-2020. It instructed the Minist­
ry of Defence to conduct a Strategic Defence
Review which would: 1) provide an asses­
sment of the state of defence of the Republic
of Slovenia for the implementation of the tasks
associated with the changing international se­
curity environment, 2) assess the effectiveness
of the defence system, and 3) propose mea­
sures to improve the situation.
The Ministry of Defence carried out a com­
prehensive defence review of its powers. The
decision of the Government of the Republic of
Slovenia will dictate the reform of the strate­
gic assessments and of the development and
guidance documents which determine the im­
plementation of national interests and objecti­
ves in the field of defence.
The main objective of the Strategic Defence
Review is to identify the measures and activi­
ties required to ensure the readiness and de­
fence capability of the Republic of Slovenia,
in accordance with the national level of de­
fence ambitions set out in the Defence Strate­
gy of the Republic of Slovenia (Government
of the Republic of Slovenia, no. 80000-1/4
of 7th December 2012) and the Resolution
on the General Long-Term Development and
Equipping Programme of the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces up to 2025 (Official Gazette of
the Republic of Slovenia, no. 99/10).
The Strategic Defence Review gives answers
to the question of whether the organization
and functioning of the defence system and de­
fence capabilities of the Republic of Slovenia
ensure the responsiveness and ability of the
state to cope with current and possible future
security threats and risks. The achieved level
of development of the defence system and its
capabilities is assessed in the light of the cur­
rent national defence ambitions in connection
with its international commitments and decla­


en the planned and actual state of the defen­
ce capabilities of the Republic of Slovenia are
identified.
The Strategic Defence Review is the basis for
the further development of the defence system
so that it can function effectively in accordan­
ce with its mission. The findings and proposed
measures are the basic planning assumptions
and bases for the completion of the strategic
and development documents pertaining to
national security.
The functioning of the defence system depen­
ds on the coordinated operation of all par­
takers of the national security system, so the
realization of the measures arising from the
Strategic Defence Review will require a com­
prehensive interdepartmental approach.

Some measures will require the cooperation
of the National Assembly.
The conclusions of the Strategic Defence Re­
view 2016 are a reflection of the functioning
of the defence system since the last Strategic
Defence Review in 2009, and since the be­
ginning of the negative consequences of the
financial and economic crisis from 2010 up
to today.

**2 BASIC PREMISES**
The basic premises for the implementation of
the Strategic Defence Review are the adop­
ted national interests and objectives in the fi­
eld of defence, and the purpose and tasks of
the defence system and defence policy which
provide for the implementation of these basic
premises. These premises arise from the Reso­
lution on the National Security Strategy of the
Republic of Slovenia (Official Gazette of the
RS, no. 27/10) and the Defence Strategy of
the Republic of Slovenia (Government of the
RS, no. 80000-1/4 of 7th December 2012).
National interests and objectives
The long-standing and vitally important intere­
sts of the Republic of Slovenia are (1) the pre­
servation of the independence, sovereignty


preservation of the national identity, culture
and autonomy of the Slovenian nation, both
within the internationally-recognized borders
of the Republic of Slovenia, and abroad and
throughout the world.
The strategic interests of the Republic of
Slovenia:
(1) Recognition of and respect for the integri­
ty of the country's internationally-recognized
borders and the national territory, including
the contact of Slovenia's territorial waters with
the open sea;
(2) The functioning of the democratic parlia­
mentary political system;
(3) Respect for human rights and fundamen­
tal freedoms;
(4) Strengthening of the rule of law and the
social state;
(5) The welfare of the people and the compre­
hensive development of society;
(6) Protection of life and a high level of all
forms of security for the people;
(7) Protection of the rights and development
of indigenous Slovenian national minorities in
neighbouring countries;
(8) Peace, security and stability in the world;
(9) Preservation of the environment and na­
tural resources of the Republic of Slovenia.

The fundamental national security objectives
are: (1) a high level of security based on pro­
per prevention, organization, training level
and preparedness of all capabilities required
for the efficient and timely detection of and
response to modern sources of threats and se­
curity risks, and (2) peacekeeping and streng­
thening of security and stability within the in­
ternational community.
The Republic of Slovenia pursues its vital and
strategic interests autonomously, through in­
tense bilateral cooperation and an active role
in the region, and through the United Nations
Organization, the European Union, NATO
and other international organizations.


-----

Essential interests in the field of defence are:
(1) The preservation of the independence, so­

vereignty and territorial integrity of the
state, and the integrity of the country's in­
ternationally-recognized borders and the
national territory;

(2) An appropriate level of the country's de­

fence capabilities and their readiness;

(3) The implementation of the common de­

fence interests and adopted international
obligations of the state in defence and mi­
litary fields within NATO and the Europe­
an Union;

(4) Peace, security and stability in the world,

with a focus on South-east Europe.

The Republic of Slovenia pursues its interests

in the field of defence in the context of six
defence objectives:

(1) Provision of the country's defence

capabilities;

(2) Effective deterrence of military and other

modern threats, and the defence of the in­
dependence, inviolability and territorial
integrity of the state;

(3) Continuous operation of the defence sy­

stem and other social subsystems;

(4) Strengthening of bilateral and multilate­

ral cooperation in defence and military
fields;

(5) Participation in the efforts of the internati­

onal community to establish and maintain
peace and to strengthen security and sta­
bility in the world;

(6) Increasing the awareness in society of

the importance of the national defen­
ce system, and strengthening its reputati­
on among the citizens of the Republic of
Slovenia.

**Defence policy**

The defence policy of the Republic of Slove­
nia, in accordance with the Resolution on Na­
tional Security Strategy, is aimed at ensuring
the country's defence capabilities as required
for the provision of national defence within
the system of collective defence and securi­
ty. The basic guidelines are the enhancement
of the quality of defence capabilities at the
expense of their quantity, and taking a rea­
sonable and proportionate share of the bur­
den of challenges to collective defence and
security.
The purpose of the Republic of Slovenia's de­
fence policy based on the specified defen­
ce interests of the state and the assessment
of threats and risks to national security whi­
ch require a response of the defence system,
is the use of optimal ways and means to achi­
eve these objectives in the field of defence.
Key points of the defence policy:
(1) Ensuring the defence of the Republic of
Slovenia through inclusion in the international
environment, with particular emphasis on EU
and NATO membership as well as on an equi­
table contribution to and assumption of bur­
dens and responsibilities in these structures;
(2) Provision of national defence capabilities
within the system of collective defence;
(3) Active participation in the operations of
multinational structures, which are primarily


At its session on 23 December 2016, the Government of Slovenia took note of the Conclusions of the
2016 Strategic Defence Review. It recognized the fact that the development of defence capabiliti­
es has stalled since 2010, and that the state now has limited capacity for dealing with future threats
to national security. In order to enhance the country’s defence capacity and resilience, the Gover­
nment tasked the Ministry of Defence and other relevant institutions to adopt concrete measures to
overcome the current situation, taking into account the changed international security environment.

The Conclusions of the Strategic Defence Review emphasize the need for nominal growth in defen­
ce expenditure in order to provide for the Republic of Slovenia’s defence capacity. Based on the
Government’s decisions, and in consideration of the adopted programme priorities and the fiscal
framework for the sector’s budget, preparation of future defence budget proposals for the next mid­
-term period will have to take into account the conditions to provide for a gradual nominal growth
from EUR 20 million to 30 million annually. The main goal is to gradually come close to the accepted
obligation within NATO with regard to the target level of defence expenditure, with an interim goal
of 1.2% of GDP in the next ten years.


**Defence system**
The defence system of the Republic of Slo­
venia is part of the national security system,
which has the task of pursuing national goals
in the field of defence. The defence strate­
gy defines the defence system as a series of
political, regulatory, organizational, military,
personnel, material and financial, intelligen­
ce and security, information and communi­
cation, development and research, educati­
onal and other activities organized by the
state in order to provide effective defence.
The purpose of the defence system of the Re­
public of Slovenia is to ensure the defence
capabilities of the state to enforce its intere­
sts and achieve its objectives in the field of
defence, in order to protect the fundamental
values of Slovenian society. The fundamen­
tal basis of the country's ability to defend it­
self lies in its defence capabilities.
The defence system is composed of the Slo­
venian Armed Forces, as the promoter of mi­
litary defence and the development of milita­
ry capabilities, and of non-military elements
of the defence system, which formulate and
implement the defence policy, provide con­


(4) Ensuring adequate defence prepare­
dness to respond to current and future se­
curity threats, including the appropriate po­
sture, structure, equipment and qualification
of the Slovenian Armed Forces and civilian
capabilities;
(5) Ensuring the greatest possible protection
of the Slovenian Armed Forces' members and
ensuring the basis of achieving an appropria­
te level of the army's interoperability with the
armies of the EU and NATO member states;
(6) Intentional and selective equipping and
training of the military to operate in the Al­
liance in a variety of circumstances in terms
of combat intensity as well as geographic
and climatic conditions, the aim being to en­
sure the deployability of at least 50% of the
land forces and to maintain at least 10% of
forces in a high level of readiness in the na­
tional territory or in multinational operations
and missions;
(7) Maintaining the level of preparedness
of defence capabilities to carry out all the
prescribed essential tasks, which should not
be reduced below the minimum of the inter­
nationally comparable military standards


-----

allied forces, and carry out preparations
and implement measures for the defence of
the country and for the operation of the de­
fence system in crisis situations. Other natio­
nal authorities, local community bodies and
civil society organizations which are of par­
ticular importance for defence are also inclu­
ded in the defence system through the imple­
mentation of their activities which contribute
to the defence of the country.

**3 SECURITY ENVIRONMENT,**
**THREATS AND RISKS**
**International security environment**
The international security environment, of whi­
ch the Republic of Slovenia is a part, is com­
plex, interdependent and subject to many sud­
den and unpredictable changes with a global
dimension. This results in greatly increased and
changing security threats and risks.
The Republic of Slovenia, together with its al­
lies, recognizes the belt of instability surroun­
ding the EU and NATO. The EU and the Alli­
ance are facing a range of security challenges
which occur mainly in the east and south. They
are created by state and non-state actors using
conventional and unconventional forces and
resources. Particularly worrying is the increa­
singly active re-use of military forces and reso­
urces on the outskirts of the EU and in Europe
(e.g. Ukraine).
Enhanced military threats are reflected in the
building of tension in crisis areas leading to ar­
med conflicts; in the acceleration of the arms
race between regional competitors and in the
consequent demonstration of power; in the glo­
bal redistribution of power to control resources
and supply options; in the protection of mem­
bers of national groups in other countries by
armed forces; in the geostrategic redistribution
of the influence of important actors in the inter­
national community; and in the threats arising
from deviations from the agreement on the sco­
pe of conventional forces and the reduction of
nuclear weapons.
In the future, the changing international secu­
rity environment will, in addition to the traditi­
onal (conventional) military threats which will
be reflected in the building of tensions, new cri­
sis areas and wars, and unconventional forms
of military operation (including hybrid opera­
tions), be mainly affected by climate change,
the scarcity of natural and other strategic reso­
urces, the unfavourable global demographic,
financial, economic and social changes, the
uncontrolled trade in sensitive materials and
services, the deepening gap between the rich
and the poor, and the effects of globalization.
The changed security environment requires
greater preparedness and responsiveness of
the entire defence system, mainly through fa­
ster decision-making and response to crises.
It requires the high flexibility of military capa­
bilities that should be able to respond, within
their competence, to the unconventional forms
of threat, as well as to traditional military forms
of threat.
Changes in the international security enviro­
nment are reflected in the strengthening of
NATO's deterrent posture and a higher level
of the readiness of forces, and in the enhan­


defence system.

**Security threats and risks**
Due to its geostrategic position and proximi­
ty to crisis areas, together with the still uncer­
tain political situation in the Western Balkans,
the Republic of Slovenia is exposed to vario­
us types of security threats and risks which co­
uld, at least indirectly, threaten its national se­
curity. The security of the Republic of Slovenia
is also affected by the dynamics of the situati­
on within the European Union, in which some
countries are faced with a growing threat of
terrorism. Due to its involvement in the wider
international political and security structures,
the Republic of Slovenia is, from the perspec­
tive of a potential threat to its security, also su­
sceptible to developments in other regions of
the world (the Middle East, North and Sub­
-Saharan Africa).
As a member of the EU and NATO, the Re­
public of Slovenia is, in addition to unconven­
tional threats, indirectly faced with conventi­
onal forms of threat. Possible forms of threat
include military threats, terrorism, hybrid thre­
ats, cyber threats, mass migrations, organi­
zed crime and the activities of foreign intelli­
gence services.


decisive response of all actors within the enti­
re national security system, with crucial politi­
cal support to adaptations of the system in the
normative, organizational, material, technical
and human resources fields.

**4 DEFENCE OF THE COUNTRY**
The primary purposes of defence are to de­
ter attacks and defend the independence, in­
violability and integrity of the state. Natio­
nal defence in a broader sense includes the
national contribution to the deterrence of at­
tacks on the Alliance and to the defence of
its members.

**Defence ambitions**
Defence ambitions result from the national
political guidance and strategies, as well as
the adopted political guidance and strategies
in NATO and the EU, and are shaped into a
common view by all member states and agre­
ed to by the Republic of Slovenia. NATO com­
plements that part of Slovenian defence ca­
pabilities that the Republic of Slovenia does
not develop.
The level of ambition in the setting up of the
national defence is a sovereign decision of
each state, but each credible member of the
Alliance must establish its own defence


The Strategic Defence Review is one of three processes which are taking place simultaneously over
a two-year period and which relate to the review of the national security system of the Republic of
Slovenia. They all address a comprehensive review of national interests, goals, ambitions and the
normative basis in the area of defence. Preparation of new defence legislation and the NATO de­
fence planning process are taking place in parallel to the Strategic Defence Review.
Step 1 of the Strategic Defence Review provided a detailed review of the status and efficiency of
the Defence System of the Republic of Slovenia, as well as the implementation of interests and go­
als in the area of defence. Step 2 identified the actions and measures required to provide for the
further development of the Defence System, particularly from the perspective of the required de­
fence capability and resilience of Slovenia in relation to future security threats. Step 3 was inten­
ded for the endorsement of conclusions and recommendations by the Government of the Republic
of Slovenia, which adopted several decisions for the achievement of the main objectives. Step 4 is
intended for the adoption of the revised fundamental political guidance and strategic planning do­
cuments that define national security.
In spring 2016, Phase 5 of the NATO defence planning process was completed, which provided a
defence planning and capability review for Slovenia. It also provided the status of the implementa­
tion of the assigned capability targets and the implementation of the common goals agreed in the
Alliance. The process is currently in Phase 3, which is intended for the apportionment of a new set
of capability targets for the next long-term period.
The preparation and coordination of a new Defence Act and the Service in the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces Act took place throughout 2016. Both will be adopted by Parliament in 2017. They
will provide conditions for the implementation of certain measures derived from the Strategic


-----

(1) The deterrence of attacks on the state, and
defence of its independence, inviolability and
integrity until the activation of the system of
collective defence;
(2) The acceptance of joint operations and al­
lied military capabilities in its territory;
(3) The taking of a fair share of the burden
and risks of crisis response and collective de­
fence outside the national territory;
(4) The independence, inviolability and in­
tegrity of the state, and the continuity of na­
tional authority after the withdrawal of al­
lied military capabilities from its territory.

The defence ambitions of the Republic of Slo­
venia formally include the organization of
defence forces to the level of brigade battle
groups to carry out combat operations in the
national territory with an appropriate level of
sustainability of forces. An operation of high
intensity within the Alliance formally includes
a unit at the level of a battalion battle group
on a one-year rotation, and simultaneous par­
ticipation in a low-intensity operation in the re­
gion with a company-level unit.
The planned target size for the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces is 10,000 members by 2018. This
number is expected to increase by no more
than 25,000 members in the event of a sharp
deterioration in the security situation, which is
consistent with the Military Strategic Reserve
Doctrine of the Republic of Slovenia.

**Defence capacity**
The defence of the Republic of Slovenia is ba­
sed on the country's own defence capabilities
and the capabilities of the Alliance in the con­
text of the system of collective defence.
The basic building blocks of national defen­
ce are:
(1) The national defence capabilities;
(2) The resilience of the state and society to
potential security threats;
(3) The preparedness and sustainability of the
Slovenian Armed Forces;
(4) The defence and security guarantees of
the EU and NATO.
The analysis conducted in line with the objec­
tives of the Strategic Defence Review showed
a gap between the actual and projected level
of defence capabilities of the Republic of Slo­
venia. The level is set at the basis of the cur­
rent assessments, policies and objectives of
the National Security Strategy, the Resolution
on the General Long-Term Development and
Equipping Programme of the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces up to 2025, the Defence Strate­
gy of the Republic of Slovenia, and the chan­
ges in the security environment in the EU's
neighbourhood.
The lower than planned level of defence ca­
pabilities is reflected in the limited capacity
to operate in high-intensity operations and in
the lack of specific mechanisms to raise the re­
silience of the state to new forms of threats.
There are limited organizational and structu­
ral capabilities of the defence system to facili­
tate the transition to operating in the most de­
manding and unpredictable situations.
It may be concluded that, in terms of possible
future security threats, the future requirements


res to improve the country's resilience to futu­
re threats. It will be necessary to prepare a
national assessment of long-term security thre­
ats and risks by 2030 to clarify the answer to
the necessary long-term defence capabilities
and the level of preparedness of the defence
system. This assessment will be an assessment
by the EU and NATO, supplemented by nati­
onal views.
The defence system of the Republic of Slove­
nia and its defence planning provide a tran­

sition to the response to a crisis in the field of
defence and a gradual transition to war. The
operation of the defence system is based on
a normative foundation, strategic political gu­
idance, and the strategies and doctrines, whi­
ch must be reviewed and revised, taking into
account the EU and NATO, in the light of the
changed geostrategic security environment
and the consequential changes in the policy
guidelines and strategic documents.
In recent years, the Slovenian Armed Forces
has developed into an army whose knowled­
ge, skills and processes are complementary
to the Alliance and which operates success­
fully in multinational operations and missions.
It ensures the readiness of forces to deploy un­
der the EU and NATO, and the planned le­
vel of preparedness to respond to natural and
other disasters and to participate in protecti­
on and rescue activities. It is also prepared,
within the framework of its powers and where
necessary, to be included in the implementati­
on of security tasks.
The Slovenian Armed Forces has limited re­
sources to achieve its mission and the tasks
assigned both within and outside the natio­
nal territory to the extent required across the
full spectrum of combat operations. The cur­
rent human and material resources and their
level of sustainability hinder its operations in
the most demanding combat situations, so its
performance is linked to a higher risk with re­
gard to the effective implementation of the as­
signed tasks and possible casualties.
The operation and development of the Slo­
venian Armed Forces since 2009 has been
negatively affected by the failure to moderni­
ze the Slovenian Armed Forces, which would
enable further development, and by instabili­
ty in the military leadership, the ageing of the


were carried out during the transition from a
mass to a predominantly professional army.
This applies to processes within the Sloveni­
an Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defen­
ce, as well as at the level of the entire society,
which is why the sustainability of the Slove­
nian Armed Forces to carry out its missions
and tasks has not been achieved. Experience
has shown that there are systemic weaknes­
ses in the provision of an adequate number
of sufficiently high quality human resources in

the active and reserve structure, and that the­
re is a risk that, in case of need, the increa­
sed size and structure of military capabilities
of the Slovenian Armed Forces would not be
achieved as is required by the Military Stra­
tegic Reserve Doctrine of the Republic of Slo­
venia. There is also a risk that a protracted or
extremely grave crisis situation and/or milita­
ry threat would not allow the country to incre­
ase its defence capabilities in time and ensu­
re its sustainability.
The number of active component members of
the Slovenian Armed Forces has been decli­
ning rapidly in recent years, and is now al­
most 700 members short of the planned num­
ber. The reasons for this trend are mainly
found in the reduction in defence spending
and consequently the inability to implement
all the measures set out in the Service in the
Slovenian Armed Forces Act. Changes in the
retirement of military personnel have distur­
bed the career planning and entry and exit to
and from the Slovenian Armed Forces.
The size of the contract reserve component
has decreased in recent years due to the
sharp reduction in the funds earmarked for
the Slovenian Armed Forces. The number of
members has not increased in any substantial
way, despite the objectives set out in the Me­
dium-Term Defence Programme 2016-2020.
This is the result of a reduced interest in ser­
ving in the contract reserve, and the fact that
the human resource base for the manning of
the contract reserve has been greatly redu­
ced due to the past abolition of compulsory
military service. In recent years, the voluntary
military service has been systematically dec­
reased due to budget cuts, and remains sym­
bolic despite several additional measures by
the Ministry of Defence.


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ral Long-Term Development and Equipping
Programme of the Slovenian Armed Forces
up to 2025 and NATO's capability goals
2013 for the Republic of Slovenia, which is
the consequence of a multi-annual reduction
in defence spending. The purchase of wea­
pons and key military equipment will only be
implemented to a very limited extent accor­
ding to the Medium-Term Defence Program­
me 2016-2020.
Establishment of the most important target ca­
pability and development challenge of the
Slovenian Armed Forces, namely the medium
battalion battle group, will, as a consequence
of the current situation and the lack of financi­
al resources, only be able to start in the next
medium-term period after 2020, which is late
in relation to the changes in the security en­
vironment and the adopted policy guidelines
within the Alliance. In the light of the experi­
ence of and recommendations by the Allies,
the process of establishing such a capability,
having adequate funding, takes five years, so
it can be assumed that Slovenia will be at le­
ast ten years late. It is also important to under­
stand that Slovenia will have to establish an
additional medium battalion battle group in
the next scheduled cycle, due to the changed
political and security situation on the outskirts
of Europe. This means that the so-far unfulfil­
led commitment will become an even greater
challenge in the medium term of six years.
The implementation of governmental measu­
res in the financial crisis has been reflected
in the constant and disproportionate cuts to
the defence budget. A total of EUR 943 mil­
lion less than planned was given to the de­
fence system during the period 2010-2015,
in accordance with the adopted medium-term
defence programmes and defence budgets.
The current medium-term financial projection
will not ensure the necessary growth in defen­
ce expenditure due to the balancing of public
finances. The planned projection of financi­
al resources does not reflect the commitments
made to NATO on the progressive raising of
defence expenditure to a level of two percent,
which should begin immediately, with the cor­
responding annual growth, and enable the


and the achievement of their performance tar­
gets. By 2020, the Republic of Slovenia will
not be able to make any substantial positive
changes in the establishment of defence ca­
pabilities for its own defence or for participati­
on in collective defence in the event of military
threats, with regard to the planned dynamics
of increasing the defence budget in the con­
text of the medium-term defence programme.
The European Union and NATO provide the
Republic of Slovenia with an environment in
which it can develop and implement its securi­
ty, economic, cultural and other interests. As a
member of both organizations, Slovenia sho­
uld contribute its share to the development of
joint military capabilities and operations. This
share should be proportional to its size and
economic power. However, the Republic of
Slovenia dedicates a smaller share of social
resources to defence than most members of
both organizations, and it even dedicates the
least resources to equipment investment. This
means that it does not carry a fair share of the
burden and the relative risk in relation to the
common objectives of the Alliance.
Based on the findings of the Strategic Defen­
ce Review, it can be concluded that the main
reasons for the fact that the preparedness and
ability of the Republic of Slovenia to address
future security risks and threats are not at the
planned level are:
(1) The reduction in the funding for defence;
(2) Incomplete implementation of the policy
guidelines, strategies and doctrines, of whi­
ch a significant part is dependent on materi­
al resources;
(3) The unfinished project of a professional
army supplemented by the contract reserve;
(4) Formal incompletion and substantive non­
-implementation of the Strategic Defence Re­
view of 2009.
The Strategic Defence Review has shown the
potential to improve the functioning of the Mi­
nistry of Defence, particularly from the stan­
dpoint of a rational organization and raising
the quality of processes. Some progress was
made in the past in the procedural and orga­
nizational integration of the military and non­
-military parts of the Ministry, but not all the


processes, as well as the more efficient
horizontal coordination, were met. The Revi­
ew also pointed to the unfavourable age and
status structure of the administrative part of
the Ministry of Defence.

**5 STRENGTHENING DEFENCE**
**CAPABILITY AND RESILIENCE**
Efforts to improve the country’s defence
should be directed towards:
(1) Developing combat capabilities;
(2) Ensuring the conditions necessary to raise

the level of preparedness and sustainabili­
ty of the Slovenian Armed Forces;

(3) Establishing mechanisms for a rapid incre­

ase in defence forces in the event of a di­
rect military threat to the country;

(4) Enhancing the resilience of the state to

contemporary and future security threats.

In doing so, the essential factors are:
(1) A significant increase in the defence bud­

get with predictable dynamics;

(2) Consistency in exercising its own com­

mitments, decisions and policies arising
from the adopted strategic and planning
documents;

(3) A comprehensive approach to the provisi­

on of systemic conditions for the operati­
on of a professional army;

(4) The ability to respond to new security thre­

ats and challenges.

The main objectives of the further deve­

lopment of the defence system and defen­
ce capabilities of the Republic of Slove­
nia, which arise from the findings of the
Strategic Defence Review, are:

(1) Ensuring the necessary defence

capabilities;

(2) Enhanced resilience of the state and soci­

ety to security threats;

(3) Improving the preparedness and sustaina­

bility of the Slovenian Armed Forces;

(4) Pursuit of the common goals and commit­

ments made in the context of the EU and
NATO.

**Objective 1: Ensuring the**
**necessary defence capabilities**
The development of defence capabilities sho­
uld focus on increasing the national defence
capabilities for responding to military threats,
and on the potential provision of the required
share of capabilities in order to participate in
high-intensity operations in the context of col­
lective defence.
The main development goal in the medium
term 2018-2023 is the formation of two me­
dium battalion battle groups.
To ensure the possibility of a rapid increase in
defence forces in the event of an extreme de­
terioration in the security situation, it is neces­
sary to start setting up mechanisms and crea­
ting a structural basis to ensure the structural,
organizational and personnel conditions for
the successful implementation of the Milita­
ry Strategic Reserve Doctrine. To this end, an
appropriate scope of material resources must
be provided for the implementation of tasks to
increase the number of military personnel to
an additional 25,000 members.


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**resilience of the state and**
**society to security threats**
It is essential to implement national measures
to strengthen the resilience of the state and
society to contemporary and future security
threats, with emphasis on the continuous ope­
ration of government at all levels; the conti­
nuity of public infrastructure and services;
the uninterrupted provision of energy; the in­
formation and communication support and
other resources important for the functioning
of the state; the security and the lives of citi­
zens; and the protection of critical infrastructu­
re. It is also necessary to improve the mecha­
nisms to enhance cybersecurity and increase
resilience against hybrid threats.
It is important to ensure continuous monito­
ring and upgrading of crisis response measu­

res in the field of defence, and their elabora­
tion and coordinated operation in the context
of defence planning, which will significantly
influence the timely and effective response to
threats.
It is essential to define in detail the tasks and
responsibilities of the Slovenian Armed Forces
to protect the critical infrastructure and assist
the national authorities in times of crisis and
war, especially in cases of extreme or/and
long-term security destabilization of the inter­
national security environment.
The crisis management system and the state's
ability to respond to various security threats
should be periodically checked through nati­
onal crisis management exercises which bring
together high-level decision makers in the na­
tional security system, in particular the Gover­
nment of the Republic of Slovenia and the Na­
tional Security Council.
Even in peacetime conditions, it is important
to increase activities to transfer defence and
military knowledge and skills to the popula­
tion fit for military service who are willing to
voluntarily participate in such education and
training. Provision should be made for the
possibility of exercising the rights of citizens
to organize themselves in a state of war.


**preparedness and sustainability**
**of the Slovenian Armed Forces**
Short-term measures to improve the prepare­
dness and sustainability of the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces should be primarily focused on
ensuring the conditions to improve the man­
ning situation in both size and personnel struc­
ture; on education and training; on the opera­
bility of the key equipment and the equipment
of individuals; on the modernization of the
communication and information system; and
on ensuring adequate operational and stra­
tegic stocks of ammunition and material
resources.
Plans should be prepared to ensure readiness
for the deployment of forces upon the activa­
tion of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty,
and to ensure the appropriate quantities of

ammunition and equipment for rapid respon­
se in high-intensity operations.
Conditions should be provided to increase
the participation of the Slovenian Armed For­
ces in NATO exercises, which would increase
their ability to operate in high-intensity opera­
tions and support the implementation of the
NATO Readiness Action Plan.
In the long term, it is necessary to ensure stabi­
lity in the provision of sufficient financial reso­
urces for equipping, operations, training and
exercises, maintenance, and the provision of
stocks of ammunition and material resources.
It is important to find suitable solutions for the
territorial organization of the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces and its greater involvement in and
connection to the local environment throug­
hout the territory of the Republic of Slovenia.

**Objective 4: Achieving common**
**goals and commitments**
**in the framework of the**
**European Union and NATO**
In accordance with the provisions of interna­
tional and national law it is necessary to su­
pport the military, political and other efforts
of the EU and NATO in the provision of secu­
rity guarantees to member states, and of all
efforts aimed at stabilizing the Western Bal­


ties should contribute to the common defen­
ce and security of the territory, population
and values, through the implementation of the
NATO Strategic Concept, particularly in rela­
tion to its basic tasks (collective defence, crisis
management and cooperative security).
It is essential to contribute national capabili­
ties to support the implementation of the EU
Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Poli­
cy, in order to support the common interests of
peace, security, prosperity, democracy and a
rule-based world order. It is also necessary to
defend the cooperation and synchronization
of efforts and development between the EU
and NATO, and to avoid the duplication of
structures and capabilities.
In the context of the EU's priorities (security of
the EU, national and social resilience in the

south and east of the EU, an integrated appro­
ach to conflicts and crises, cooperative regio­
nal arrangements and global management),
efforts should be directed towards:
– Implementing commitments to mutual assi­

stance and solidarity, with a focus on ad­
dressing security challenges such as ter­
rorism, cyber threats, energy security and
organized crime, and to supporting the
management of external borders;

– Supporting joint efforts and closer coope­

ration in the field of defence for the deve­
lopment of defence capabilities;

– Supporting closer cooperation with

NATO, especially in the area of operati­
ons in the Mediterranean and North and
Sub-Saharan Africa, and to strengthening
the mechanisms for dealing with hybrid
threats;

– Supporting joint efforts to strengthen the

security structures in the southern neigh­
bourhood, with a focus on South-east Eu­
rope, where efforts should be made for a
coordinated approach with NATO;

– Strengthening cooperation and solidari­

ty in the fight against terrorism in the EU
and mutual assistance for faster recovery
of member states in the event of an attack;

– Strengthening national technological ca­


-----

**and other conditions**
1. Personnel and organizational measu­

res at the Ministry of Defence
Efforts in the development of human resour­
ces in the Slovenian Armed Forces should
be directed to the planning of career paths,
providing high-quality and stable leadership,
education, and improving the status of active
component members.
Measures to ensure the necessary human re­
sources should focus on the creation of con­
ditions for improving the preparedness and
sustainability of the Slovenian Armed For­
ces and defence capabilities, in accordance
with the target number of 10,000 members.
Human resources should dynamically follow
changes in the security situation and threats in
the world, as well as the defence needs and
ambitions of the Republic of Slovenia, both in
terms of their number and quality.
It is important to significantly increase the pos­
sibilities of an increased scope of volunta­
ry military service. Possibilities must be esta­
blished for voluntary participation in various

forms of the acquisition of knowledge and
skills to defend the country.
Measures need to be carried out to increa­
se interest in employment in the armed forces
and to retain and stop the decline in the per­
sonnel structure of the peacetime and reserve
structure of the Slovenian Armed Forces.
It is also necessary to suggest appropriate sy­
stem solutions at the level of the entire public
administration, and amendments to the labour
regulations that will support the development
of a professional army, supplemented by vari­
ous forms of the reserve component.
Due to the increased combat characteristi­
cs, it is important to rejuvenate the personnel
structure of the Slovenian Armed Forces and
raise the level of the physical fitness of soldi­
ers. Arrangements should be proposed go­
verning the retirement of military personnel
and ensuring the predictability of leaving the
military organization.
The status of soldiers needs to be improved
through both tangible and intangible measu­
res, especially in terms of the implementation


Efforts in the context of implementing NATO's
enhanced defence and deterrence posture,
achieved by strengthening the collective de­
fence and defence capabilities and by increa­
sing the resilience of countries and civil prepa­
redness, should be directed towards:
– Continuous and comprehensive streng­

thening of the level of preparedness, in­
teroperability and responsiveness of the
defence system and the Slovenian Armed
Forces, which directly supports the com­
mon enhanced defence and deterrence
posture;

– An appropriate national contribution to

the renewed NATO Response Force, whi­
ch, in cooperation with the lead Allied
nation, will signify a proportionate and
credible share of the joint forces of the
Alliance;

– Joint contribution to the security assu­

rance measures, which will demonstrate
Slovenia's commitment to the fundamen­
tals of the North Atlantic Treaty; to deter­
rence and the collective defence of the

Allies, with a focus on providing the ca­
pabilities of the Slovenian Armed Forces
to NATO's Rapid Response Forces; and
to participation in exercises and milita­
ry operations, which will ensure prepare­
dness to respond to threats coming from
the south and south-east, including the pe­
riodic deployment of units in the context
of the enhanced forward presence of the
Alliance in the East. This should take into
account the principles of military necessi­
ty, financial capacity and the sustainabili­
ty of forces;

– Recognizing cyberspace as a new doma­

in of operation of the Alliance and imple­
menting the commitment to cyber defence
through the development of national pro­
cedures and capabilities for an effective
response to cyber threats and defence of
national infrastructure and networks;

– Ensuring conditions for the development

of national defence capabilities in the
context of the NATO Capability Targets
for Slovenia, including the new ones whi­


sential to improve the system of financial re­
wards for contract reserve members and
members of the voluntary military service.
It is also important to reinforce the procedural
and organizational measures for a more effi­
cient structure and performance of the defen­
ce system, which will be based on greater in­
tegration of the civil and military dimensions.
Moreover, it is necessary to implement chan­
ges in the organization and formation struc­
ture of the Slovenian Armed Forces and the
command and control system.
2. Material resources

Activities to commence a new cycle of mo­
dernization should be started immediately to
enable the purchase of combat vehicles for
the medium battalion battle group, which in­
cludes the modernization of other capabilities
of the Slovenian Armed Forces that are part
of this group (CBRN, engineer support, logi­
stic support, fire support, air defence and re­
connaissance capabilities).
In order to facilitate the establishment of es­
sential combat capabilities and to boost the
modernization of the Slovenian Armed For­
ces, as many purchases as possible should
be made directly through intergovernmental
agreements and joint purchases through the
EU and NATO agencies. Possibilities need to
be considered for renting key equipment.
It is important to continue the sale of per­
manently discarded weapon systems and
equipment which would no longer be used to
equip the military strategic reserve even in a
changed security situation. The acquired fun­
ding should be directed to the modernizati­
on of the main equipment of the Slovenian Ar­
med Forces.
3. Financial resources

It is important to deliver on the commitment
to defence spending by gradually increasing
the defence budget to approximately 2% of
GDP over the long term until 2027, and by
focusing on the proportion of investments to
the extent of 20% of the defence budget for
the priority capabilities agreed within the Alli­
ance. The medium-term projection of defence
spending needs to be corrected. The nominal
growth of the defence budget should reach
EUR 30-45 million annually in order to
economically maintain the already establis­
hed defence capabilities of the Republic of
Slovenia, and to establish the priority capabi­
lities which the Republic of Slovenia needs in
order to meet the national needs and fulfil the
commitments to the EU and NATO.
A plan should be developed to gradually re­
duce the debt and to pay the overdue financi­
al obligations to international organizations,
and to properly define the obligations of in­
dividual ministries. In the future, payment of
membership fees to the UN should be exclu­
ded from the financial plan of the Slovenian
Armed Forces.
In order to ensure stability in providing resour­
ces to modernize the Slovenian Armed Forces
it is necessary to consider legislative solutions
that will enable the repayment of financial
commitments in the long term.
4. Legal and other normative bases

Comprehensive systemic conditions for the


-----

a greater security risk. A loose understan­
ding of and failure to comply with the
international legal order increases the li­
kelihood of conventional military conflicts
on the periphery of Europe and the Allian­
ce. Contemporary threats, crises and armed
conflicts in the EU's neighbourhood pose a
potential security threat to the Republic of
Slovenia, to which the country will have to
respond appropriately.
The defence system of the Republic of Slo­
venia has stalled in its development. It cur­
rently does not reach the required level of
ability to deal with future threats and risks
to the national security, and cannot achie­
ve all the assigned goals and tasks or set up
all the necessary defence capabilities. Given
the significantly changed international se­
curity environment, it is necessary to take
concrete measures to overcome the current
situation.
The Slovenian Armed Forces does not reach
the necessary level of preparedness and abi­
lity to operate across the full spectrum of
military operations. Modernization of the
armed forces has ceased, and assessment of
the human resources warns that this trend
of reduced capacity to operate will continue
in the future.
The Republic of Slovenia is at a point whe­
re it is necessary to consider its role in the
Alliance and the concept of providing its
own security and defence. It must urgently
reform the basic principles that define the
objectives and interests in the field of defen­
ce, and direct efforts and resources towards
achieving the priority goals. However, in
doing so, the increase in defence spending
will not automatically improve defence ca­
pabilities. It is also essential to renew the
strategies and doctrines, to implement sy­
stem changes, to begin the modernization
of the Slovenian Armed Forces, and to stop
the negative trend in the area of human re­
sources in the armed forces.
The political decision on a "small, modern
and effective" army from the time when Slo­
venia abolished compulsory military servi­
ce and was integrated into NATO did not
materialize. The Republic of Slovenia needs
an army which, in cooperation with the
allied forces, will be able to defend the co­
untry, participate in the provision of secu­
rity to the state and its citizens, and pro­
vide and establish security in the world.
Renewed strategic guidelines and norma­
tive bases should include a decision on the
future armed forces and provide the sy­
stem, status, financial, material, personnel,
doctrinal and other conditions for the ar­
med forces' development and the provision
of its necessary preparedness.


appropriate regulatory framework in other
areas related to the field of defence.
The new Defence Act must provide a basis for
the further development of the defence system
in the long term.
The new Service in the Slovenian Armed For­
ces Act, which will be proposed together with
the new Defence Act, will need to regulate the
areas which have so far been regulated by
the Defence Act (for example, accomplishing
the mission of the Slovenian Armed Forces,
preparedness, military discipline and the like).
It is important to renew the concepts and im­
plement solutions which will contribute to a
greater ability to operate across the full spec­
trum of military operations (such as the rene­
wal of the Military Doctrine, the Military Stra­
tegic Reserve Doctrine, the Contract Reserve
Concept etc.).
It is also necessary to prepare a military as­
sessment of the long-term target seize, struc­
ture and capabilities of the Slovenian Armed
Forces.
Possibilities need to be considered for the
re-enforcement of all the components of mili­
tary service, with special attention paid to the
extent of personnel capabilities to implement
all the components of military service in the
Slovenian Armed Forces and the administra­
tive part of the Ministry of Defence at the re­
gional level.
5. Strategic policy and planning

guidance
It is necessary to prepare a projection of the
security situation in the international enviro­
nment of the Republic of Slovenia, and to pre­
pare and, if necessary, annually update an
assessment of security threats and risks to the
Republic of Slovenia. A projection of the secu­
rity situation, subject to the internal and exter­
nal political priorities of Slovenia, will be the
basis for the long-term development planning
of the defence system of the Republic of Slo­
venia, and for the provision of the necessary
level of defence capabilities. The assessment
of security threats and risks will be the basis
for the national security system’s response to
these threats and risks.
Based on the projection of the security situati­
on in the international environment, and


Republic of Slovenia is also a member of, it is
important to review the Resolution on the Na­
tional Security Strategy of the Republic of Slo­
venia and possibly propose its renewal to the
National Assembly. In doing so, it will be ne­
cessary to also renew the objectives and inte­
rests in the field of defence.
It is important to reform the Defence Strategy
of the Republic of Slovenia, which will enable
the implementation of the policies of the Reso­
lution on the National Security Strategy of the
Republic of Slovenia, and the potential new
conceptual and strategic guidelines of the Eu­
ropean Union and NATO in the field of com­
mon defence and security. The Defence Stra­
tegy will answer the questions on the required
level of defence capabilities of the Republic
of Slovenia and the country's resilience to cur­
rent and future security threats.
The amendments to the national security do­
cuments and the policies of the European Uni­
on and NATO in the field of defence and
security will, in relation to the modified pro­
jections of financial resources, be the basis for
proposing that the National Assembly renews
the Resolution on the General Long-Term De­
velopment and Equipping Programme of the
Slovenian Armed Forces, which will provide
long-term guidelines for exercising the de­
fence ambitions of the Republic of Slovenia
and establishing the necessary defence ca­
pabilities. It will be necessary to take into ac­
count the new NATO Capability Targets for
2017, which will be adopted by the Republic
of Slovenia.
It will also be necessary to prepare a pro­
posal of the new Medium-Term Defence Pro­
gramme for 2018-2023, in line with the new
NATO Capability Targets for the Republic
of Slovenia for 2017, the amendments to the
Resolution on the General Long-Term Deve­
lopment and Equipping Programme of the
Slovenian Armed Forces, and changes to the
financial projections.

**6 CONCLUSION**
The Republic of Slovenia is facing a worse­
ning security situation in the region and
the wider international environment. Indi­
vidual EU and NATO member states have


-----