GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA
# A NEW APPROACH:
### NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY FOR JAMAICA
##### Towards a Secure & Prosperous Nation
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Professor Anthony Clayton from the Institute for Sustainable Development,
University of the West Indies Mona was engaged as lead consultant to the project
##### A VISION FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
To establish a safe and secure environment for the people of Jamaica, so
that together we can build a prosperous and progressive society, founded
on democracy and liberty, justice and the rule of law, responsibility and
respect for human rights and dignity.
Reviewed and updated through a consultative process by the
National Security Policy Coordination Unit (Cabinet Office)
and the Ministry of National Security.
Professor Anthony Clayton from the Institute for Sustainable Development,
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## Table of Contents
_Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4_
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Updating the National Security Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Environmental analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Assessing probabilities and impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Total Expected Impact metric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
_Tier 1 Threats (Clear and Present Dangers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16_
Assessing Tier 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Homicide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Organised crime & gangs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Corruption fraud, extortion & money laundering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
The impact of crime on the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Calculating the cost of crime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
The role of National Security in enabling development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Key Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1. Remove profit from crime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
2. Reform the justice system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3. Policing by consent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4. Anti-gang strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
5. Focus on at-risk communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
6. Strengthen systems of governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
_Tier 2 Threats (Major Potential Threats) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58_
Traditional threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Organised crime, terrorism, narco-terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Non-Traditional threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Energy, resources, climate change, natural hazard, biodiversity loss . . . . . . 68
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_Tier 3 Threats (Persistent Problems) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78_
Public Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Jamaica’s credibility with international partners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Poverty and unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Role of education and training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Deported persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
Informal settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
_Tier 4 Threats (Possible risks that require monitoring) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86_
Food security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
Water security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88
_Coordinating and Monitoring Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90_
_Annex_
Objectives for implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Tier 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Tier 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
Tier 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
Tier 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120
_Appendices_
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Steering committee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126
International consultants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Consultation workshop representatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
_References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129_
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## Executive Summary
_Jamaica currently has one of the highest per capita levels of homicide and violent crime in the_
_world. This is the result of a combination of factors including imports of illegal firearms and_
_ammunition, the supply and trans-shipment of illegal narcotics, financial frauds, including_
_Ponzi schemes and the Lottery scam, and opportunities for corruption and extortion, all of_
_which have encouraged the use of violence by criminals._
These problems have been compounded suffering in Jamaica. It is essential to seize the
by the creation of garrison communities, initiative, dismantle criminal organizations,
the misappropriation of public funds, links disrupt their operations, sequester their
between politics and organized crime, and assets, sever their political connections, and
the laundering of the proceeds of crime permanently degrade their ability to commit
into legitimate businesses. Criminal gangs serious crimes.
have created an environment of fear, which
The nation has many problems, and limited
enables them to extort money, coerce and
resources. It is therefore essential to
control communities, and intimidate people
prioritize those threats that are causing
into silence.
more harm, or are more likely to happen.
These profoundly serious problems have The 2013 National Security Policy (NSP)
deterred investment, destroyed capital is therefore based on a Probability-
formation and discouraged business Impact Matrix, which uses estimates of
development. The cost of crime and probabilities and impacts as the basis for
corruption to Jamaica includes lost life determining national security priorities and
expectancy, injuries and health care, but also allocating resources. The threats facing the
includes the higher cost of doing business nation are ranked into four Tiers, each of
in a low-trust society, losses to theft and which requires an appropriate response.
extortion, business closures, capital flight,
the emigration of skilled workers and the _Tiers:_
loss of foreign investment.
Violence, crime and corruption have - Tier 1: high-impact, high-probability
profoundly retarded Jamaica’s development. threats; the clear and present dangers.
The economy has stagnated for most of These are the top priority, and require
the last four decades, with low growth and an active response.
declining productivity, while other countries
- Tier 2: high-impact, low-probability
have transformed their productivity, economic
threats. These require constant
growth rates and development prospects.
monitoring, building early warning
The economy is now, at best, one-third of the
systems, and strengthening resilience.
size it should have been; it may be only one-
tenth of the size it could have been. Effective - Tier 3: high-probability, low-impact
action against crime and corruption would threats. These are potentially serious,
do more to improve the economy of Jamaica but represent a lesser threat than
than any other measure. Tiers 1 and 2. They typically require
preventative measures and reforms to
The most important task facing Jamaica today
reduce their impact and cost.
is to root out crime and corruption, and thereby
address the underlying cause of poverty and
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- Tier 4: potential threats that are now is to transform Jamaica’s prospects by
currently assessed to be low-probability decisively breaking the grip that crime and
and relatively low impact. However, corruption have on this nation. This means
they require monitoring and periodic dismantling the gangs, arresting their
reviews, as a change in circumstances leaders and the people who have facilitated
could result in them rapidly becoming their operations, seizing their assets and
more serious. putting them out of business.
This will require six key reforms, all equally
Crime, corruption and violence, along with
important.
the various social problems that exacerbate
them and are perpetuated by them, are the
Tier 1 threats to Jamaica. They result in _The Six Key Reforms:_
so many deaths and injuries that Jamaica
1. Remove the profit from crime
now has one of the highest homicide rates
in the world, and, largely as a result, has
2. Reform the justice system
also suffered from four decades of low
growth. They are the foremost threats to 3. Policing by consent
the security of Jamaica, to the integrity of
4. Adopt a coherent anti-gang strategy
the State, to the economy, and to the lives
of the people.
5. Focus on at-risk individuals
There is no point in merely trying to contain and communities
these problems, and limit the damage that 6. Strengthen systems of governance
they cause. That approach has been tried
for many years, and has failed. The aim
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_The concept of national security includes all the measures taken by a State to ensure its_
_survival and the safety and welfare of its people._
## Section 1 - Introduction
There are many potential challenges to the by conventional or unconventional forces,
integrity of the State. These include the use including terrorism and narco-terrorism,
of conventional or unconventional forces to and to support the police and civil
destabilize a government, annex resources authorities in the event of civil unrest. It
or impose regime or policy change. They also requires the maintenance of police,
also include a range of threats to economic, intelligence and other security services to
institutional and social structures, such as: ensure the maintenance of law and order,
to control and deter crime, corruption,
- Trafficking in people, weapons and
violence and disorder, to maintain cyber-
illegal narcotics.
security, protect sensitive information and
- Money laundering and tax evasion. prevent fraud. Finally, it involves ensuring
- The misappropriation of public funds. civil defence and emergency preparedness,
protecting vital infrastructure, and building
- Attempts to pervert the course of
resilience in social and economic systems
justice.
so that they can withstand shocks.
- The compromising of democracy and
The goal of the 2007 National Security Policy
the political process by threats, violence
was to integrate Jamaica’s policies on security
and corruption.
and related issues, including policy goals,
- The penetration of government agencies responsibilities and actions, into a coherent
by organized crime. strategy. There have been significant progress
since then, but much remains to be done.
- High levels of migration (especially of
There have also been significant changes in
skilled people) as a result of a lack of
both the external and internal environment
security and economic opportunity.
since the 2007 NSP was written, so the risk
There are also threats to cyber-security,
assessment and associated priorities must
including illegal access to confidential
now be recalibrated.
data, government or infrastructure
control systems, fraud or any attempt _Cost of crime_
to compromise or undermine public Crime, violence and corruption are now the
confidence in the currency and the banking foremost threats to the national security of
system; resource threats, such as the need Jamaica, to the integrity of the State, and to
to ensure adequate, affordable supplies of the lives of the people. The economic cost
energy, food and water; and environmental alone is extremely high. For example:
threats, such as earthquakes, or hurricanes,
- The 2010 World Economic Forum
droughts and floods (which might become
Competitiveness Index showed that
more frequent in future as a result of
Jamaica had fallen 17 places in three
climate change).
years to rank 95th of the 132 nations
So national security includes all measures surveyed. This was the most rapid
to avert, deter, mitigate or protect against decline in the world.
any significant external or internal
- In the 2011 World Economic Forum
threats. This requires the maintenance
Index Jamaica had fallen a further 12
of standing armed forces to deter attack
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places in a single year, to 107th of 146 death, pain and suffering. In terms of the
nations surveyed. percentage of the population murdered in
2009, Jamaica suffered the equivalent of a
- The World Bank Doing Business 2013
9/11 terrorist attack every week.
report showed that Jamaica had fallen 4
places to 94th, the ninth year of decline. The most important task facing Jamaica
today is to root out crime and corruption,
- Over the last decade Jamaica has fallen
and thereby address the underlying cause
51 places in the World Bank rankings.
of Jamaica’s social and economic problems.
Such rapid loss of competitiveness usually
It is essential to seize the initiative,
indicates a catastrophic disaster or profound
dismantle criminal organizations, disrupt
economic crisis. In Jamaica’s case, however,
their operations, sequester their assets,
it happened because many countries are
sever their political connections, and
now forging ahead while Jamaica’s economic
permanently degrade their ability to commit
development is still being retarded by
serious crimes.
crime and the fear of crime, along with
the high cost of energy, and dysfunctional
###### A changing world
government bureaucracy. With regard to
The world is being rapidly reshaped by
the latter; Jamaica has implemented 13
scientific and technological advances,
economic reforms since the last World
demographic trends and the shift in the
Bank review, more than any other nation
balance of world population to developing
in the Caribbean region, but is still falling
countries, the rise of Asia as the new centre
further behind in an increasingly competitive
of global manufacturing, surging demand
world. Countries in South America, Africa
for resources and equally rapid shifts in
and Asia are progressing and prospering,
the pattern of environmental impacts, and
while Jamaica has yet to overcome its most
changes in the nature of risk, political and
intolerable, ruinous and deadly burden, of
economic influence, competition and conflict,
crime and corruption.The cumulative cost of
and the geopolitical balance of power.
crime to Jamaica, however, is even higher
These changes have created important
than this loss of relative competitiveness
new opportunities but also existential
suggests. Jamaica’s development has been
challenges for Jamaica, which has had
crippled by violence, crime and corruption
to adjust to market liberalization, the
and, largely as a result, the economy has
phasing-out of preferential terms of
stagnated for most of the last four decades,
trade and rapidly increasing competition
with low growth and declining productivity,
from the emerging economies, while
while other countries have transformed
simultaneously contending with one of
their productivity, economic growth rates
the world’s highest rates of homicide
and development prospects. The cost of
and violent crime, trafficking in guns,
crime, therefore, includes the cumulative
ammunition and illegal narcotics, the
cost of decades of lost productivity growth.
rise in cyber-crime, the compromising of
The economy is now, at best, one-third of
Government programs by organized crime,
the size it should have been; it may be only
increasing pressure on water, energy
one-tenth of the size it could have been.
and other resources, environmental
This still does not complete the reckoning.
degradation and climate change.
Crime and corruption have taken an even
more terrible toll on Jamaica, measured in The threat environment can change very
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rapidly. For example, recent events in The first duty of the Government is to protect
the Middle East and Venezuela have the lives and safety of the citizens and
highlighted the potential vulnerability of residents of Jamaica, and ensure the stability
Jamaica’s energy supplies, while the growth and prosperity of the nation. This requires
in the wealth, power and reach of the maintaining effective and accountable police
Mexican drug cartels threatens a number and security forces, and an efficient and
of Caribbean nations. accessible justice system.
Jamaica needs to have robust but flexible It also means taking all necessary steps to
plans for dealing with the challenges of ensure supplies of energy, food and water,
living in a world of accelerating change, strengthening resilience against natural
with rapidly evolving threats, problems and disasters, protecting the environment,
opportunities. In this age of uncertainty, it is maintaining efficient and productive systems
essential to have the capacity to recognize of education and health-care, protecting
the significance of critical events, and to important infrastructure (such as airports,
act quickly and decisively to deal with any ports, the water supply, communications
threats to the security of the nation. networks, roads and the power supply),
protecting Jamaica’s sovereign territory
###### Jamaica’s national interests
(including terrestrial, marine and air-space),
Jamaica’s essential interests, however, remain
defending the nation against terrorism and
constant. They are founded on our most
trans-national crime, and rehabilitating
deeply-held values; democracy and liberty,
and re-integrating deportees and former
justice and the rule of law, responsibility and
prisoners into society.
respect for human rights and dignity.
_The vision is to establish a safe and secure environment for the people of Jamaica, so that_
_together we can build a prosperous and progressive society, founded on democracy and_
_liberty, justice and the rule of law, responsibility and respect for human rights and dignity._
_The highest priority is to reduce the level of crime and violence, and the associated fear and_
_insecurity._
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## Rationale: Updating the National Security Policy
_There are three main reasons for updating the National Security Policy._
###### 1. Changes in the environment is therefore essential to have clear priorities
and stated commitments that allow for a
There have been significant changes
rapid operational response which will not
in the external environment, including the
depend on further changes in policies.
expanding reach of Mexican drug cartels,
changes in Venezuela and the Middle East This approach also makes it clear that the
that have implications for Jamaica’s energy goals of the NSP are of overarching national
security, and a global recession. There interest, and removes them from the domain
have also been changes in the internal of sectarian politics.
environment, including the normalization
of Jamaica’s largest garrison community in _3. The need to prioritize actions_
2010, which contributed to a 37% decline in
Successive administrations in Jamaica have
the rate of homicides over 2010-2011, the
tended to respond to urgent problems with
largest percentage fall since 1981.
isolated initiatives, with little continuity,
and to chronic, long-term problems by
###### 2. The need to analyse probabilities
promoting new policies, often without the
###### and impacts
sustained attention and commitment of
Some threats are more likely to happen, or resources needed to make them work.
have the potential to cause greater harm, In addition, Jamaica is now one of the
so it is sensible to accord them a higher most indebted countries in the world,
priority. It is important to have a clear and with government expenditure regularly
logical process for assigning an appropriate exceeding annual revenues. It is therefore
priority to each potential threat, as this will essential to establish clear priorities, so
determine the allocation of time, people, that the security forces and relevant civilian
equipment, money and other resources. This agencies are optimally configured, with
is especially important when resources are the right equipment and training, and can
constrained. If every threat were given the deliver the goals of national security with
same priority, resources would be stretched maximum efficiency.
too thinly to be effective anywhere.
The 2013 NSP therefore contains a
Probability-Impact Matrix, which uses
estimates of probabilities and impacts
as the basis for determining national
security priorities.
The threat environment can change
extremely rapidly, but the process of
developing new policies (which involves
consulting, drafting new legislation,
reviewing and amending, finding time in the
Parliamentary timetable and promulgating)
can be very slow; some legislative changes
in Jamaica have taken well over a decade. It
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## Environmental Analysis
_In order to determine the national security priorities it is necessary to identify the main threats_
_to Jamaica. These include threats that constitute a clear and present danger (e.g. the high rate_
_of homicide), and major risks within a given time horizon (e.g. a storm surge that could flood_
_heavily populated areas), although the strategies for dealing with these are markedly different._
###### Horizon Scan well as potential future threats such as
A horizon scan was used to identify the major terrorism and the Mexican drug cartels. The
potential threats in Jamaica’s internal and non-traditional security threats included
external environment. The threats and risks issues such as the availability of energy and
identified in the scan were weighted and other vital commodities, climate change,
ranked in a probability-impact assessment hurricanes, earthquakes and other risks that
matrix to determine the priority that should could result in significant loss of life or civil
be attached to each threat. The review unrest. Jamaica has little or no control over
followed this sequence: most of these external variables. The goal,
therefore, is to identify cost-effective ways
A. Review the internal and external
to reduce exposure and build resilience.
environments.
The internal horizon scan also reviewed
- Identify current threats.
both traditional and non-traditional security
- Rank threats into tiers on the basis threats. The traditional security threats
of their probability and impact. related to issues such as the economic cost
of crime to Jamaica, the compromising of the
B. Identify the measures needed to
political system, the extent of corruption, and
control these threats.
the implications for foreign and domestic
The risk assessment drew on two sources:
investment, the growth in the number of
I. Horizon scans and analyses of the gangs, the high level of homicide and violent
external and internal environments. crime, the continued presence of gang-
The horizon scan was developed in dominated garrison communities, and the
consultation with senior police and role of the political system in encouraging
military officers, and other relevant informal settlements. The goal of this
agencies. analysis was to identify strategies that would
help to degrade and dismantle criminal
II. Stakeholder consultation. This
structures, erode their capabilities, remove
involved interviews with relevant
their influence over politics and the allocation
personnel and strategic planning
of public resources, and eliminate their ability
workshops with key stakeholders.
to exact extortion.
This methodology is based on models
The non-traditional security threats include
developed by the UK’s National Security
weaknesses in the planning and regulatory
Council and the Ministry of Defence, and the
systems that have resulted in communities
US National Intelligence Council .
and infrastructure being located in areas that
The topics reviewed in the external horizon are prone to flooding, vulnerable to storm
scan included both traditional and non- surge, on unstable slopes or above aquifers,
traditional security threats. The traditional thereby increasing the number of lives at risk
security threats included a range of factors and the potential economic cost to Jamaica
implicated in the high rate of homicide, as of a major natural disaster.
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|Col1|High impact|Low impact|
|---|---|---|
|High probability|Tier 1 Top priority; active response|Tier 3 Medium priority, regular review|
|Low probability|Tier 2 Monitor carefully, build resilience|Tier 4 Low priority, occasional review|
## Probability-Impact Matrix
The threats and risks identified in the horizon scans were weighted and ranked in a
probability-impact matrix, using the following parameters:
- The probability that an event will occur within a given time horizon.
- An estimate of the impact of each event in terms of fatalities, economic loss, and the risk
of civil unrest.
Each category in the Probability-Impact Matrix corresponds to a Threat Tier, and each Tier is
assigned an appropriate response, as follows:
###### Probability-Impact Matrix schematic
High impact Low impact
High Tier 1 Tier 3
probability Top priority; active response Medium priority, regular review
Low Tier 2 Tier 4
probability Monitor carefully, build resilience Low priority, occasional review
Tier 1 threats are clear and present dangers, Tier 3 threats are typically persistent but
and are therefore the top priority. They relatively low-impact problems, and are
require an active response. therefore unlikely to pose an existential
threat. Here too, however, it is important
Tier 2 threats are major potential or imminent
to note another caveat, which is that social
threats, but there are two caveats:
and economic systems can behave in a non-
- First, some of these threats have the linear manner. As the Arab Spring uprisings
potential to cause catastrophic harm demonstrated in 2011, a situation may
to Jamaica so it is important to actively appear stable, but then a single incident
can trigger catastrophic consequences
monitor all Tier 2 items so that they can
(such as an uprising that overturns the
be rapidly upgraded to Tier 1 if necessary.
established order). Tier 3 threats typically
- Second, the concept of ‘low probability’
require reforms to resolve underlying
always refers to a particular period
problems and reduce potential tensions,
of time. For example, it is inevitable
such as improving governance, eradicating
that Jamaica will experience a major corruption and building stronger institutions.
earthquake one day, as it sits above This will increase resilience, and reduce
several active faults. If this risk was the probability that a Tier 3 threat could
evenly distributed over the next 100 suddenly become more serious.
years, that would give a 1% chance of a
Tier 4 threats are potential risks that are
major earthquake in any one year, and a
currently seen as less probable, and also
10% chance of occurring within the next
as having less potential to inflict harm.
decade. Tier 2 threats therefore require However, Tier 4 threats require monitoring
constant monitoring. It is particularly and occasional review, in case there is a
important to build early warning systems change in the situation that causes a Tier 4
and strengthen resilience. threat to become more serious.
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###### Assessing probabilities and impacts
The probability-impact matrix, which is the on average, every 300 years. That might
basis for the organization of threats into seem like an acceptably low risk. If,
these four tiers, requires analyzing and then however, there are 300 nuclear power
integrating risks and impacts. stations in the world, then, on average,
there will be one serious accident
There is an important question with regard to
every year. That too might not seem so
Tier 2 events (high-impact, low-probability).
acceptable.
How much time, effort and money should be
assigned to prepare for something that is - When a risk is expressed as a ‘one in
not currently happening? Given the current a hundred year event’, many people
fragile state of the economy, and with the assume that that means that the event
security forces under pressure on other will not happen for a century – or, if it
fronts, this is a pertinent question. The does happen, that it won’t happen again
answer is that the nation cannot afford to
for a hundred years. Neither of these
neglect high-impact, low-probability events,
interpretations is correct; a ‘one in a
but they require a different kind of response.
hundred year event’ means that each
For example, if the sea level is expected to
year there is a 1% chance that the event
be higher in future, the first step is to stop
will happen. So it is just as likely to
any new permanent construction from being
happen in year 1 as in any other year.
built too close to the shore. That way, by the
It is also important to note that the
time the sea level has risen, there are fewer
probability remains the same, even when
people in harm’s way.
the event happens. For example, if the
###### Calculating risks event actually happens in year 5, then
the probability of it happening again in
The probability-impact matrix is based
year 6 is still 1%[1].
on risk analysis, which requires some
explanation. Risks are usually expressed as percentages,
or on a scale of zero (impossible) to one
- Risks are the combination of two factors;
(certain). So an extremely low risk has a
the chance that a particular event will
probability close to zero, while a threat that
happen to a person (or a country), and the
is already affecting Jamaica would have a
number of times (or the length of time)
probability of 1, or 100%.
that the person is exposed to that risk. If,
The perception of risk is not necessarily
for example, there is a 1/1,000 chance of
the same as statistical risk; it tends to vary
a person being hit by a car when crossing
by context and between individuals. For
a busy road, that might seem like an
example, Jamaica has one of the highest
acceptably low risk. However, if 10,000
homicide rates in the world, which should
people cross the same road every day,
be a matter of the greatest concern to all
then, on average, 10 people will be hit by
citizens. However, most people take threats
a car every day. That might not seem so
far more seriously when they believe
acceptable.
themselves or their families to be directly
- Similarly, if there is a 1/300 risk of a
serious accident at a nuclear power 1This is true unless the event actually does make it less likely to
plant in any given year, then that might happen again. For example, an earthquake might relieve the strain
on a fault, so that the chance of another earthquake is then lower
be expressed as one serious accident, than before.
-----
exposed to the risk, so will effectively assign have a devastating impact on agriculture,
a lower value to a stranger being murdered but have little effect on the homicide rate. In
further away. The killing of a friend, some cases, however, events are connected
relative, acquaintance or neighbour is far and the risks are then compounded. For
more directly and personally threatening. example, a rise in the level of violent crime
might deter investors, increase the rate of
The distribution of homicides in Jamaica is
skill and capital flight, and force businesses
very uneven; most occur within six of the
to move out of the worst-affected areas,
nineteen police divisions. So many Jamaicans
which would result in rising unemployment
are probably more concerned, in practice,
and a reduced rate of economic growth,
with the distribution of the homicides than
which would result in turn in increased
with the total. This may partially explain
poverty and public debt, which might force
why Jamaica tolerates one of the highest
a reduction in the size and capacity of the
homicide rates in the world; many who
police force, and so on. This combination
live in secure homes in ‘good’ areas do not
might then lead to a further rise in the rate
seem to feel that they are exposed to an
of violent crime, thus triggering another
intolerable level of personal risk. By contrast,
round of damaging consequences. As this
in Italy and Colombia, the elite (including
suggests, the risks that often do the most
judges and politicians) were targeted, and,
damage are compound risks that are
probably as a result, there was sufficient
also linked together in positive feedback
political commitment to break the power of
loops, so that the process becomes self-
organized crime in those countries.
sustaining, and continues to drive a country
Threats can be rated in terms of the actual or in a particular direction.
probable harm that they would cause. This
can be measured in terms of the number _The Total Expected Impact metric_
One way of comparing the impact of diverse
of deaths or serious injuries, the amount
events with different probability profiles
of infrastructure lost, or economic loss,
and potential impacts is to estimate the
such as cost of repairs and replacement,
total expected impact (TEI) for each event.
the increased cost of health care, insurance
This allows comparisons between different
or security, financial capital written off,
threats by calculating the expectation value
reduced income or a reduction in the rate of
for the number of fatalities, which is the
economic development and growth.
estimate of the probability of the event
###### Impacts multiplied by the estimate of the number
Threats can be rated in terms of the actual or of lives that would be lost if the event
probable harm that they would cause. This occurred[2]. So, in this case, TEI=P*F. This is
can be measured in terms of the number a way of integrating risks and impacts, as
of deaths or serious injuries, the amount indicated in the following examples[3]:
of infrastructure lost, or economic loss,
- There is a 50% chance that food prices will
such as cost of repairs and replacement,
be so high this year that some cannot
the increased cost of health care, insurance
afford to eat; it is estimated that 40 people
or security, financial capital written off,
will starve. That gives a TEI of 20 lives[4].
reduced income or a reduction in the rate of
economic development and growth. 2 TEIs can also be used to compare between other types of impacts,
such as economic losses.
Threats can have very different patterns 3 These are not intended to be realistic examples.
of impacts. For example, a hurricane might 4 These are ‘statistical lives’.
-----
- There is a 10% chance of a major order to achieve the maximum expected
earthquake this year, and it is estimated impact reduction. This then allows a
that it would cost 2,000 lives. That gives comparison between different kinds of
a TEI of 200 lives. threat, such as crime, which is already killing
over 1,000 people each year in Jamaica, and
This means that it is five times more likely
an extreme event like an earthquake, which
that the country will be affected by high
could kill more people if it happened, but has
food prices than by an earthquake, but
a relatively low probability of happening in
the earthquake is a much greater threat,
any one year. If, for example, it is estimated
because the TEI is ten times higher.
that a major earthquake in Jamaica might
When an event is already happening, its kill 10,000 people, but has only a 1% chance
probability becomes 100%, so that then of occurring in any one year, that would give
becomes its weight in the analysis. So a a TEI of 100. If, however, 1,500 people are
100% chance of an event that would cost being murdered in Jamaica every year, the
1,000 lives gives a TEI of 1,000 lives. TEI is 1,500, which is fifteen times higher
than for the earthquake. This is, in fact,
Another important difference is that risk
why crime is a Tier 1 threat, while a major
mitigation may have dramatically different
earthquake is classed as a Tier 2 threat.
costs for different events (per expected life
saved). For example, it might be possible to
###### Conclusion
reduce the number of fatal traffic accidents
The reason why crime, corruption and
relatively cheaply, by installing traffic-
violence, along with the various social
calming measures at every accident black-
problems that both exacerbate them and
spot, while the cost of ensuring that every
are perpetuated by them, are the Tier 1
building can withstand an earthquake
threats to Jamaica is as follows. First, they
might be relatively expensive. In a situation
are already happening. Second, they result
where resources are very limited, it might
in so many deaths and injuries that Jamaica
be necessary to calculate the cost of each
now has one of the highest homicide rates
possible intervention in terms of dollars
in the world, and, largely as a result, has
per expected life saved in order to be able
also suffered from four decades of low
to choose the policy option that saves the
growth. No other threat to Jamaica has a
greatest number of lives for a given budget.
comparable social and economic impact.
However, the TEI score gives a relatively Crime, corruption and violence are therefore
straightforward and useful first-order the primary threats to the nation
ranking of events for prioritizing actions in
-----
|LOW IMPACT|Tier 3: Persistent problems|1. Low growth, high rates of unemployment, poverty, increasing disparities of wealth, education and opportunity; resulting in a risk of social unrest. Possible loss of credibility with key 2. international partners; resulting in a risk of reduced influence and support. Deportees 3. Informal settlements 4.|Tier 4: Potential risks|1. Food security. 2. Water security.|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|HIGH IMPACT|Tier 1: Clear and present dangers|1. Transnational organized crime (including trafficking in narcotics, weapons, ammunition and people, money laundering and cybercrime - including Lottery scams, identity theft and fraud). 2. Gangs and domestic organized crime (including contract killing, intimidation and extortion, kidnapping, dealing in narcotics and illegal weapons and money laundering). 3. Facilitators who launder the proceeds of crime. 4. A political system compromised by links to organized crime. 5. Corruption of elected and public officials, public works contracts awarded to criminals. 6. Lengthy delays and weaknesses in the justice system that undermine public confidence in justice. 7. Corruption in the institutions of state, e.g. in the security forces, police, prison and justice systems. Gang-dominated garrison communities. 8.|Tier 2: Major potential threats|1. Mexican and Central America cartels and narco-terrorists who might try to extend their influence across the Caribbean. 2. Terrorism (with particular regard to the tourism industry). Energy and resource security, climate change, natural 3. hazards, biodiversity loss.|
||HIGH PROBABILITY||LOW PROBABILITY||
-----
## Section 2: Policy Tier 1 Threats: Clear and Present Dangers
- Transnational organized crime (e.g. trafficking in narcotics, weapons and people, money
laundering and cybercrime - including Lottery scams, identity theft and fraud).
- Gangs and domestic organized crime (e.g. intimidation, extortion, contract killing,
kidnapping, money laundering and dealing in narcotics and illegal weapons).
- Facilitators who launder the proceeds of crime.
- Links between the political system and organized crime (e.g. corruption of public officials,
with public works contracts awarded to criminals).
- Lengthy delays and weaknesses in the justice system that undermine confidence in
justice.Corruption in the institutions of state, e.g. in the security forces, police, prison and
justice systems.
- Gang-dominated garrison communities.
###### Assessing Tier 1 Threats
The most important and immediate threat to and local gangs, who are supported by
national security and to the lives of the people corruption, fraud, extortion and money-
of Jamaica is the high rate of violent crime laundering. Gangs fight, intimidate and kill
and homicide, which is higher than in most to enforce their control over territory, the
civil wars. Violence is the most significant distribution of weapons, narcotics, and the
cause of premature death and disability proceeds of fraud, scams, extortion and other
amongst young males in Jamaica. This is not forms of crime. The trans-border shipment
true of the entire population, where the main of narcotics (mainly into North America
causes of premature death and disability are and Europe), the imports of weapons
obesity, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, (predominantly from the USA, with smaller
cancer and other degenerative diseases, but flows from Haiti and Central America) and
organized crime, violence and corruption frauds such as the Lottery scam generate
have had a far greater economic impact. The large profits for criminals. The connections
economy is now, at best, one-third of the size between politics and organized crime mean
it should have been, it may be only one-tenth that some of these funds are used to corrupt
of the size it could have been. This means officials and compromise the political
that violence, crime and corruption are the process, which in turn has resulted in some
main causes of poverty in Jamaica, with all major criminals being given protection.
of the attendant problems, such as deficient
In a further blurring of the boundaries,
infrastructure, education, housing, health and
some of those who profit from crime
nutritional status.
appear to be respectable citizens. Organized
###### Politics, Organized Crime and the role crime depends on facilitators; lawyers,
accountants, politicians, bankers and real
###### of the facilitator
estate brokers who assist the criminals by
The main causes of violence and homicide
protecting them, laundering the proceeds
are transnational criminal organizations
of crime (which lawyers can conceal by
-----
claiming ‘client confidentiality’), creating _Homicide_
shell corporations, operating offshore bank Central America, Southern Africa and
accounts, establishing front businesses to the Caribbean region have the highest
conceal illegal activity, creating a facade homicide rates in the world[5]. Key factors in
of respectability for these businesses by Central America and the Caribbean are the
serving as proxy directors, and investing prevalence of criminal gangs and organized
criminal profits in legitimate enterprises, crime, in conjunction with proximity to the
real estate and other assets and holdings. USA; simultaneously the world’s largest
The wealth, power and influence of major consumer of illegal narcotics and the world’s
criminals and their facilitators distorts the largest exporter of weapons.
economy, makes it harder for legitimate
businesses to survive, deters investment
and causes a haemorrhage of skills and
capital from Jamaica.
_World homicide rates by region (per 100,000)_
5 Data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime: UNODC Homicide Statistics: Homicide level for 2010 or latest available year.
-----
However, each region contains both violent and relatively peaceful nations. Homicide rates
in the Caribbean, for example, vary greatly from Martinique (4.2) to Jamaica (52.1 in 2010[ii].
The chart below therefore shows the level of homicides in the most violent countries in the
world; those with homicide rates over 30/100,000.
_The world’s most violent countries_
_Africa_ _S America_ _Caribbean_ _C America_
Jamaica (current population 2.8 million) Jamaica’s rate peaked at 1,680 homicides
has one of the world’s highest per capita (62/100,000) in 2009, when it was close to
levels of violent crime. The UN Office on that of El Salvador, but it fell by about 40%
Drugs and Crime’s 2011 Global Study on (the largest drop in three decades) after a
homicide reported that Honduras had the major criminal was extradited in June 2010
highest homicide rate in the world, with 82.1 following a joint military and police operation
homicides per 100,000 people. El Salvador in a heavily fortified gang-dominated
was second (66/100,000), Côte d’Ivoire garrison community, which was then
third (56.9/100,000) and Jamaica fourth normalized with a strong police presence
(52.1/100,000) . The homicide rate in Côte and comprehensive social intervention
d’Ivoire was largely due to the civil war, but programs.
this ended in April 2011, which meant that
Jamaica was probably then in third place[6].
6 There is a controversy about the homicide data for Venezuela. The official statistics for 2011 indicated that the homicide rate was
48/100,000, although independent estimates suggested that it reached 67/100,000. In 2012, the Interior Minister confirmed that the
homicide rate had reached 65/100,000. If this is correct, Venezuela has overtaken Jamaica to become the third most violent country in the
world; because the homicide rate in Venezuela has risen sharply, while the rate in Jamaica has fallen.
-----
###### Putting homicide rates in context
Terrorism usually evokes a far stronger assets, domestic businesses and real estate,
response than crime, but crime kills far more and the diversion of large government
people than terrorism. For example, some contracts, the latter requiring collusion from
3,506 people were killed during the conflict allies inside the political and governmental
in Northern Ireland (current population 1.8 system. In addition to penetrating the state,
million). The conflict lasted 32 years, which TNOCs are also more likely to undermine the
gives an average of 110 deaths per annum. agencies of state, by bribing, intimidating or
So the rate of killing in Jamaica, the greater killing public officials, thereby weakening
part of which is the result of gang violence, both the integrity of the state and public
is about 15 times the rate in the low-level confidence in law and justice. Some of the
insurgency in Northern Ireland, or about 10 most influential members or facilitators
times higher on a per capita basis. So the of these criminal organizations are also
rate of killing as a result of crime in Jamaica involved in business or politics, which allows
in 2009 was about 10 times higher than in them to appear legitimate.
the insurgency in Northern Ireland.
At the other end of the scale, there are
By the end of 2011, some 50,000 people local gangs, predominantly young men who
had been killed or disappeared since Mexico are fighting to defend ‘their’ territory. Their
declared a ‘war on drugs’ in December 2006, crimes are largely opportunistic and local,
which is approximately 17 times more than including extortion and protection rackets
died on 9/11[7]. Mexico’s population is just (for example, a tax may be levied on workers
over 1/3rd of that of the USA, so, on a per to ‘buy bullets to protect the community’), as
capita basis, Mexico suffers the equivalent well as distributing weapons and narcotics.
of nearly nine 9/11 events each year. Some communities have the misfortune to
have several such gangs, who fight each
The comparison with Jamaica is even more
other to control the area.
extreme, because of Jamaica’s much smaller
population. In terms of the percentage of There are also intermediate-level gangs,
the population murdered in 2009, Jamaica who are typically affiliated to one or other of
suffered the equivalent of one 9/11 event the two main political parties, because they
each week. first became powerful by providing directed
political violence in exchange for public works
###### Organized crime and gangs
contracts[8]. They were then able to expand
There are different ‘generations’ of gangs in
their role in other areas of the economy.
Jamaica. At one end of the scale, there are
Some of these gangs became major players
international criminal organizations, with
in the distribution of narcotics and firearms,
a significant presence in more than one
came to dominate particular sectors, and to
country, well-connected to other criminal
cover much wider geographical areas .
networks overseas. These transnational
organized criminal structures (TNOCs)
are involved in trafficking weapons and
narcotics, money-laundering into overseas
7 Nearly 3,000 people died in the four coordinated terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, including the people in the
buildings that were targeted, the passengers and the 19 hijackers.
8 The links between politics and crime in Jamaica have been extensively documented. See, for example, Payne (1988), Gray (2003), Sives
(2003), Robotham (2003), Levy (2001), Munroe (2002), Figueroa and Sives (2003), Harriott (2004) and Kavanagh et al (2003).
-----
###### Corruption, fraud, extortion and money laundering
There are different forms of corruption. Development show that Jamaica has a road
_Organizational corruption is where one or_ density of 1,881km per million persons, the
more people operate criminal activities inside second highest road density network in the
legitimate organizations. This includes any world; but that only 10% of the road network
public official who indicates that an extra was in good condition, one of the lowest
cash payment will ensure that service is percentages in the world, which reflects
actually delivered, or a penalty overlooked. chronic problems with bad construction
Corruption of this kind in, for example, the and poor maintenance, in part due to the
police or prison service creates vulnerabilities practice of preferentially assigning contracts
that can be exploited by criminals. _Judicial_ to favoured contractors[v], with inadequate
_corruption is often a more subtle process._ oversight. Another related area of concern
A lawyer who advises his client to conceal is the placing of public works contracts, as a
the source of his funds may be facilitating number of these have gone to organizations
crime, but the payment to the lawyer will that are fronts for organized crime. This
be concealed in the fee. Political corruption means that the main source of income for
may take the form of close links between
some of Jamaica’s criminal organizations
a politician and a contractor which result
is probably tax dollars, rather than narco-
in the flow of favours in both directions,
trafficking or extortion.
not necessarily involving cash. Judicial and
In all such cases, the taxpayer is doubly
political corruption can often cause far
cheated; corrupt officials and criminals
more harm than organizational corruption,
collude in the theft of public funds, and the
although the latter is both more obvious
infrastructure that results is often more
and more annoying to the public, because
expensive, badly built, or not built at all.
they are less visible, the sums involved are
usually larger, and they undermine the basis Another, less obvious route involves placing
for law and justice. contractors under pressure to take on
unnecessary labour. About 80% of all major
The direction of public works contracts into
the hands of political affiliates has also construction projects in Jamaica come via
been particularly damaging, as this has the government, so all major contractors
often resulted in unnecessarily expensive understand the need to maintain good
or poor quality infrastructure. For example, relations with the party in power, and some
a contract to build a road might provide an are particularly close to key decision-makers
opportunity to reward political affiliates, and in one or both of the parties. If a contractor
shoddy construction would ensure that the is awarded a large contract, he may then
road surface would crumble, which would be expected to take on additional labour
then allow the issuing of another contract from other organizations that are affiliated
to resurface the road. This is one of the to the party in power. This may take the
reasons why Jamaica has, simultaneously, form of providing site ‘security’, construction
one of the most dense road networks in the materials and casual labour, all of which
world, and one of the worst road networks in will come with an additional overhead. This
the world in terms of the percentage of road means that the construction is significantly
in good condition. The 1993 and 1994 World more expensive than it should have been;
Development Reports on Infrastructure and the difference is the cost of corruption.
-----
So the people of Jamaica pay a quadruple capital formation and discouraged business
price for corruption, including: development; some urban areas have been
reduced to derelict lots as businesses
- The loss of legitimate businesses, which
have been intimidated and bankrupted by
cannot compete with those who are
extortion. This reflects the impacts of both
corruptly favoured.
crime and the fear of crime. For example,
- Lost economic development, investment the Transparency International 2010
and prosperity. Corruption Perception Index gave Jamaica
a score of 3.3, indicating a perception of
- A legacy of deficient infrastructure.
pervasive corruption, but most Jamaicans
- The growth of the gangs that still
report that the level of petty corruption has
dominate many areas.
fallen. This suggests that the perceived level
Some gangs grew strong because they took of corruption may be higher than it actually
advantage of and contributed to political is, indicating the extent to which Jamaica
violence. The level of political violence has has become a low-trust society. However,
fallen markedly over the past 20 years, but another reason for the high CPI score is the
the gangs have remained and diversified perception that the level of grand corruption
into a broad spectrum of criminal activities, remains high.
including fraud, extortion and trafficking
The direct cost of crime and corruption to
weapons and narcotics. Technological
Jamaica includes lost life expectancy as well
progress has been an increasingly significant
as the cost of injuries and health care, but
factor, as this has created new opportunities
the total economic loss also includes the
for crime, such as identity theft, various
indirect cost of crime, which includes the
forms of internet fraud and the lottery scam;
higher cost of doing business in a low-trust
the latter has allowed criminals in Jamaica
society, losses due to theft and extortion,
to defraud citizens of other countries,
business closures, capital flight, the
sometimes repeatedly. The size of the
emigration of skilled workers and the loss of
Lottery scam is difficult to assess, as about
foreign investment.
90% of victims do not report their losses, but
the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) There are a wide range of these indirect
has estimated that lottery scams defraud costs. When high rates of crime make
U.S. citizens of $1 billion each year, and the property rights less secure, people tend to
U.S. Senate has stated these are typically work less hard and invest less capital, while
run from Jamaica[vi]. In 2012 the FTC received businesses may reduce the level of their
nearly 30,000 complaints about Jamaican operations. The logic is simple; there is a
lottery scamming, which suggests that there risk that the profits will simply be stolen,
may have been around 300,000 attempts at extorted or confiscated by others. Investors
fraud, many of which were successful[vii]. are also deterred by doubts about law and
order, and the capacity of legal systems to
###### The impact of crime on the economy
effectively enforce justice, as this removes
Violence and corruption in Jamaica have
their protection and reduces their chances
deterred inward investment, destroyed
of redress. Finally, any social system that
10 Jamaica’s largest legitimate sources of foreign exchange (data from 2010 and 2011) are remittances (US$1.8 billion), tourism (US$880
million), and mining and quarrying (US$135 million), indicating that fraud is now Jamaica’s third largest source of foreign exchange. As the
Lottery scam funds are usually imported via wire transfer, it is likely that the national income from remittances also includes a significant
contribution from fraud, money-laundering and tax evasion.
-----
allows powerful members of society to extort which include shorter working hours[10] and
from the poor will condemn that country to consequently reduced worker productivity,
continuing poverty and misery, because this undeclared losses to various forms of
prevents the poor from accumulating capital extortion, higher spending on security,
and improving their circumstances[viii]. increased risk and consequently reduced
access to borrowing, more expensive
###### Calculating the cost of crime
insurance[11] and more costly capital.
An estimate of the cost of crime to Jamaica
by Francis et al. (2003)[ix] included health Probably the most significant omission,
costs, the value of lost production due to however, at least in terms of economic
death and injury related to crime, and public cost, was the impact of violent crime on
and private expenditure on security. They people’s ability to save and willingness
estimated that health costs were 0.4% of to invest, which translates directly into
GDP, lost production was 0.2% of GDP, and reduced rates of capital accumulation,
expenditure on security was 3.1% of GDP, which then depresses future growth rates.
giving a total of 3.7% of GDP. The allowance As the United Nations Office on Drugs
for security included defence, justice, and Crime and the Latin America and the
correctional services and the police. This is, Caribbean Region of the World Bank report
of course, an over-estimate, as expenditure ‘Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends,
on security would not be zero even if Jamaica Costs, and Policy Options in the Caribbean
had a low crime rate. The justification for (March 2007)[xi] points out, this can result in
including all expenditure was, in part, that of a vicious circle, where regions badly affected
all cases filed with the Resident Magistrate by violence receive very little productive
courts in 2001, just 10% were civil cases, while investment, which means that there are very
90% were criminal cases, indicating that the few legitimate employment opportunities,
greater part of government expenditure on which in turn means that crime becomes
the justice system and the police was spent the main source of opportunity, thereby
on crime[9x]. increasing the level of crime, which further
deters investment.
However, this estimate did not include non-
monetary costs, such as the pain, trauma The UNODC/World Bank report also
and suffering of victims and their families, estimated the impact of crime on overall
and the long-term psychological effects of economic growth rates, using a cross-country
living in fear, or the long-term social damage analysis. They compared the economic
caused by the cycle of violence, where growth rate for Costa Rica with that of
children that have lost family members Jamaica. Costa Rica was chosen because it
or otherwise profoundly traumatized by is one of the least violent countries near the
violence are more likely to be violent as Caribbean region; it had a homicide rate of
adults, thereby perpetuating the problems 8.1/100,000 during the period 1996-2000.
from one generation to the next. Also During the same period, the homicide rate
excluded were the various second-order in Jamaica was 33.8/100,000. A regression
and indirect impacts of crime on businesses, analysis suggested that Jamaica’s economic
9 This was further supported by the UNDP report The Social Costs of Crime in Jamaica and the Challenge of Good Governance (2010), which
noted that almost 10% of total recurrent public expenditure now had to be devoted to public order and safety.
10 Some businesses in high-crime areas have a shorter working day so that staff can leave during hours of daylight.
11 Some insurance companies are reluctant to insure businesses in high-crime areas, so these businesses are then left to bear the entire
cost of any damage and losses.
-----
|Country r ank 1 974|GDP/capita 1974|Country r ank 2 003|GDP/capita 2003|
|---|---|---|---|
|1. Jamaica|100|1. Antigua a nd B arbuda|275|
|2. Trinidad & T obago|80|2. Barbados|270|
|3. Antigua & B arbuda|71|3. Trinidad & T obago|220|
|4. Barbados|68|4. St K itts & N evis|210|
|5. St K itts & N evis|50|5. St L ucia|123|
|6. Belize|49|6. Grenada|115|
|7. Guyana|45|7. Belize|106|
|8. St L ucia|44|8. Dominica|102|
|9. St V incent & G renadines|33|9. St V incent & G renadines|94|
|10. Dominica|32|10. Jamaica|89|
|11. Grenada|30|11. Guyana|28|
growth rate would increase by 5.4% per including the decade after Independence.
annum if the homicide rate could be brought The growth rate averaged 4.8% per annum
down to that of Costa Rica. Unfortunately, throughout the 1960s. In the early 1970s,
Jamaica’s homicide rate continued to rise, however, a sharp increase in violence
peaking at 63/100,000 in 2009. precipitated a surge of skill and capital
flight, and established the inter-penetration
Other estimates suggest that the cost of
of politics and organized crime. The pattern
crime to Jamaica may be significantly higher.
of economic growth changed dramatically
For example, Ward et al (2009)[xii] estimated
from consistent strong growth to repeated
that the direct medical cost of injuries due to
recessions and weak growth. Since 1972/3,
interpersonal violence accounted for nearly
the economy has grown at an average of
12% of Jamaica’s total health expenditure
just over 1%, just one-fifth of the previous
in 2006, while productivity losses due to
rate. As a result, Jamaica collapsed from
interpersonal violence-related injuries
being one of the strongest economies in the
accounted for approximately 4% of Jamaica’s
Caribbean to being one of the weakest. This
GDP. If the latter is added to the estimate
can be seen in the table below (based on
of security costs by Francis et al., then the
data from Boyd, 2006)[xiii].
combined total is 7.1% of Jamaica’s GDP.
Jamaica’s economy grew strongly for 23
years, throughout the 1950s and 1960s,
###### Jamaica’s comparative decline
Country
rank
1974 GDP/capita Country
rank
2003 GDP/capita
1974 2003
1. Jamaica 100 1. Antigua
and
Barbuda 275
2. Trinidad
&
Tobago 80 2. Barbados 270
3. Antigua
&
Barbuda 71 3. Trinidad
&
Tobago 220
4. Barbados 68 4. St
Kitts
&
Nevis 210
5. St
Kitts
&
Nevis 50 5. St
Lucia 123
6. Belize 49 6. Grenada 115
7. Guyana 45 7. Belize 106
8. St
Lucia 44 8. Dominica 102
9. St
Vincent
&
Grenadines 33 9. St
Vincent
&
Grenadines 94
10. Dominica 32 10. Jamaica 89
11. Grenada 30 11. Guyana 28
The GDP per capita data is shown relative to income in Jamaica, which is set at 100, so that all other
incomes are percentages of income in Jamaica in 1974. In 1974, for example, income in Antigua and
Barbuda was 71% of income in Jamaica. By 2003, income in Antigua and Barbuda was 275% of income in
Jamaica. Every other country in the region, apart from Guyana, became relatively prosperous compared to
Jamaica. Jamaica and Guyana were the only two countries where per capita income actually declined, but
Jamaica’s case is exceptional, for two reasons. One is that it fell from being the regional leader to being
one of the two weakest economies in the region. The other is that Jamaica was not gradually overtaken
by the other countries; there was a remarkably sharp turning point in Jamaica’s fortunes which clearly
marked the beginning of the country’s decline. The inflection point in Jamaica’s development can be seen
in the graph below (from Kn’lfe, 2005)[xiv].
-----
###### Jamaica’s inflection point
If 1972 is taken as the baseline year, the and spur the emigration of skilled personnel,
accumulated cost of crime from 1972 to all of which would tend to increase the rate
2010 at 3.7% of GDP would be US$8.7 billion, of business closures, as well as forcing some
at 5.4% GDP it would be US$12.7 billion, and of the remaining businesses to relocate.
at 7.1% of GDP it would be US$16.7 billion. There is also likely to be a significant cost
For comparison, Jamaica’s public debt at in terms of lost foreign direct investment,
December 2011 was US$18.7 billion, so the which will become increasingly likely to
accumulated losses due to crime (at 7.1% of go to other jurisdictions as the conditions
GDP) would equal 89% of that debt. deteriorate. This would then result in rising
unemployment and a reduced rate of
However, this estimate may still be too
economic growth, which would in turn result
conservative, because, as the UNODC/World
in increased poverty and rising public debt,
Bank report points out, some of the factors
involved are deeply interconnected. This which might force a reduction in the size and
means that the risks are compounded, which capacity of the police force, reduced levels
can result in a vicious spiral of escalating of social expenditure and the withdrawal of
social and economic damage. For example, government business incentive programs.
a rise in the level of violent crime might This combination might then lead to a further
increase the cost of doing business (with rise in the rate of violent crime, and all the
losses to theft, looting, arson and extortion, other risks and uncertainties associated
the added cost of additional security with high levels of crime and violence,
and pressure to take on unnecessary thus triggering another round of damaging
‘workers’), deter investors, reduce the rate of consequences. High rates of corruption,
reinvestment and new business formation, compounded by the fear of violence, can
increase the rate of capital flight overseas also result in the misappropriation of
-----
public funds and the channeling of public One way to estimate this loss is to compare
works contracts to organized crime, which Jamaica with Barbados, a smaller country
can result in unnecessarily costly and with few natural resources. If Jamaica’s rate
poor-quality infrastructure, which can of productivity growth had kept pace with
then undermine attempts to improve a that of Barbados, then Jamaica today would
country’s fiscal management, and increase be almost three times more productive and
its indebtedness. wealthier than it is now, and the quality
of life would have been correspondingly
As this suggests, compounded risk factors
transformed. Another way to estimate this
that are also linked together in positive
loss is to project forward from the rate
feedback loops often do the most damage,
of growth before Jamaica’s descent into
because the process becomes self-
violence, when Jamaica’s economic growth
sustaining, and continues to drive a country
rate collapsed from nearly 5% to just over 1%.
in a particular direction. This analysis is
If the growth rate of the 1960s had continued,
supported by the World Bank’s 2011 World
then today Jamaica’s economy would be
Development Report , which reaches an even
almost ten times bigger than it is now[13].
more profound conclusion; that violence is
not just one cause of poverty among many So violence, crime and corruption have had a
other factors, it is the primary cause[xvi],[12]. profound and terrible impact on Jamaica. The
economy is now, at best, one-third of the size.
So the estimates of the annual losses to
It may be only one-tenth of the size it could
crime do not complete the reckoning of
have been. This supports the conclusion in
the cost of crime and violence to Jamaica,
Jamaica’s Vision 2030 National Development
because it is also necessary to estimate the
Plan ; that effective action against crime
cumulative impact of lost growth. If the above
and corruption would do more to increase
analysis is correct, Jamaica’s development
productivity and improve the economy of
has been crippled by its high rates of crime
Jamaica than any other measure[14].
and corruption. This is supported by the fact
that the economy has stagnated for most of The high levels of crime in Jamaica are both
the last four decades, with low growth and a symptom and a cause of the country’s
declining productivity, while other countries lost development. Crime adds a significant
have transformed their productive potential, hidden cost to all business and government
economic growth rates and development transactions, deters investment, encourages
prospects. The full cost of crime, therefore, the migration of skill and capital, diverts
has to include the cumulative cost of four resources, fosters an atmosphere of fear
decades of lost productivity growth. and tension and polarizes society; the
12 The Report notes, for example, that until 1990, Burundi and Burkina Faso had similar rates of growth and levels of income. In 1993,
however, Burundi suffered a civil war, while Burkina Faso continued to remain peaceful. As a result, Burkina Faso is now two-and-a-half
times richer than Burundi. The Report concluded that people in developing countries that are badly affected by violence are over twice
as likely to be malnourished, three times as likely to miss primary school and almost twice as likely to die in infancy as people in other
developing countries, and that the countries that are most affected by violence are also the most vulnerable to economic shocks, mainly
because their institutions of government are greatly weakened. The Report also points out that gang-related violence now kills more
people than most wars (in Guatemala, for example, more people are now murdered each year by gangs than were killed in Guatemala’s
civil war in the 1980s) so that countries with high rates of crime and violence are likely to suffer similar consequences of lost economic
growth and perpetuated poverty.
13 It is important to note with a counterfactual analysis of this kind that other factors might have intervened to prevent Jamaica from
achieving this better future, but this comparison does provide some measure of what has been lost.
14 Vision 2030: National Development Plan (p106)
-----
middle class retreat into gated communities With similar resolve, Jamaica could solve
while the poor must engage in a struggle to its problems with crime, corruption and
survive. This has fostered a low-trust culture violence, and liberate itself from poverty and
characterized by high levels of incivility and underdevelopment.
aggression, in which many people have
###### Conclusion: the role of national
come to accept higher levels of criminality,
are fatalistic about their ability to prevent _security in enabling development_
it, and are therefore more likely to commit Crime in Jamaica cannot be considered
crimes themselves. Understandably, most apart from other mainstream development
surveys find, firstly, that crime and violence concerns; it reflects organized activities
are the main deterrents to investment, and, that undermine and exploit weak civil
secondly, that the majority of the population institutions in order to be able to manipulate
thinks that crime and violence are the most and exploit vulnerable individuals and entire
important problems facing Jamaica today[15]. communities for personal and organized
gain. This destroys the process of capital
With sufficient political will, however, it
formation and business development; some
would be possible to restore Jamaica’s peace
areas in major cities have been reduced to a
and prosperity. It would not necessarily
wasteland of derelict buildings as businesses
take long. In just six years (2002-2008),
have been bankrupted by extortion, the
Colombia was able to reduce the number of
entrepreneurs have emigrated and their
kidnappings by 87%, the number of terrorist
capital has been reallocated elsewhere, a
acts by 82%, and the number of homicides by
combination that can sabotage all hopes of
53%. This was the result of four policies:
development.
- Changing the primary goal of national
A fight against crime is therefore a fight for
security from the defence of the state to
development; measures to reduce the social
the protection of all citizens.
and economic damage caused by pervasive
- Deploying a ‘clear, hold and build strategy’ crime have to be integral to the developmental
to reclaim the country from the narco- activities of the state. Security should be
traffickers and extortionists. seen as both a core developmental goal and
an essential precondition for the delivery
- Isolating hard-core gang members, and
of other developmental goals. Government
giving the peripheral members a way out
spending on national security is therefore
of the gangs.
a primary investment; peace and stability
- Reforming the legal system, so that the are the preconditions for investment,
time needed for a criminal case was business development and economic
reduced by 80%, and the conviction rate growth. Investments in improving law and
rose from 3% to 60%. order in Jamaica would do more to increase
productivity and improve the economy than
As a result, Colombia’s economic growth rate
any other measure (including investments
rose from 1.9% to 7.9%, and unemployment
in infrastructure, education or health
fell by 29%.
15 Jamaica’s high levels of violence have consequences for other countries as well; a number of killings in the USA, UK and Canada have been
attributed to Jamaican gangs. One Jamaica-based gang is estimated to have killed over 1,400 people in the USA during the 1980s, while
the arrest of over 100 members of the same gang in Toronto in 2011 resulted in homicide rates in the city immediately falling to a 25-year
low . Jamaican citizens have, for some years, been the largest foreign contingent in British jails; in 2005, there were 2,500 incarcerated at a
cost to UK taxpayers of £91 million per annum. The harm is reciprocal; there have been murders in the US and UK that were immediately
followed by retaliatory killings in Jamaica.
-----
care). Investment in national security is an assets and putting them out of business.
investment in Jamaica’s future development
The next section of this report outlines
and prosperity.
the measures designed to deliver these
Jamaica’s development has been profoundly results. There are six key recommendations,
damaged by violence, crime and corruption.
all equally important. The only way that
There is no point in merely trying to contain
Jamaica can escape from the trap of crime,
these problems, and limit the damage that
corruption, poverty and underdevelopment
they cause. This approach has been tried
is to make progress on all six measures
for over forty years, and has failed. The goal
simultaneously.
now, therefore, is to transform Jamaica’s
prospects by decisively breaking the grip The future of the nation depends on the
that crime and corruption have on this outcome.
nation. This means dismantling the gangs,
arresting their leaders and the people who
have facilitated their operations, seizing their
-----
## Addressing Tier 1 Threats
###### Six key steps are needed to address the Tier 1 threats in Jamaica
1. Remove the profit from crime
2. Reform the justice system
3. Policing by consent
4. Adopt a coherent anti-gang strategy
5. Focus on at-risk individuals and communities
6. Strengthen systems of governance
##### I. Remove The Profit From Crime
It is a common misconception that the way partly in response to market prices, and
to make progress against organized crime is partly in response to pressure from law
to disrupt specific forms of criminal activity. enforcement agencies. If one form of crime
For example, a great deal of time, effort and becomes more lucrative and less risky than
money has been expended on intercepting another, the criminals will usually adapt
shipments of drugs or weapons, and many and change their tactics accordingly. The
lives have been lost in the attempt. This Italian Mafia, for example, have defrauded
approach has been pursued by a number of the European Commission for subsidies for
countries for decades, and many criminals wind turbines, the Mexican drug cartels may
have been caught and jailed, but organized now make as much money from illegal oil
crime continues to thrive, illegal narcotics sales as from cocaine, while cybercrime now
and weapons are still being traded, and does more economic harm to the European
criminal activity is still inflicting serious Union than illegal narcotics. Similarly, some
social and economic harm. criminal organizations have relocated their
criminal enterprises into weaker or more
One of the main reasons why this approach
lenient jurisdictions when under pressure.
has never succeeded in eliminating
For example, as a result of the strong
organized crime is that it does not allow for
measures taken by the Government of
the flexibility and adaptability demonstrated
Colombia, cocaine production in Colombia
by successful career criminals, many of
fell markedly. However, the total production
whom have been adept at identifying and
of cocaine in the region did not decline,
moving into new areas of criminal activity.
because production simply relocated from
Traffickers will also switch their suppliers,
Colombia into Bolivia and Peru [xviii], [xix].
use different shipping routes, develop new
products and expand into new markets; The structure of criminal organizations will
-----
also evolve in response to pressure from law crime, and of those people who facilitate
enforcement. For example, drug trafficking in and assist organized crime.
Mexico used to involve many small, mostly
This means that the focus has to shift from
family-based criminal organizations. Under
street-level criminals to the top bosses,
pressure from the security forces, these small
who enjoy and control the profits, and the
gangs were replaced by a few large cartels,
people who handle the money, i.e. the
as the cartels had the financial resources
facilitators. The latter group was identified
and organizational ability to operate the
in the US Government’s ‘Strategy to Combat
more sophisticated supply and distribution
Transnational Organized Crime’ as being the
operations required in the increasingly
key to dismantling and degrading criminal
difficult environment. A related problem is
networks; it includes the politicians, lawyers,
that routine police interventions are more
accountants, bankers, businessmen, real
likely to catch the less skilled criminals, while
estate brokers and others who operate in
the more intelligent or ruthless criminals
both the licit and illicit worlds. As the US
are more likely to evade capture, which will
Government strategy points out, organized
have the effect of raising the average level of
crime depends on these facilitators; they
criminal competence over time.
channel contracts to businesses that are
So fighting crime by trying to disrupt specific fronts for organized crime, create chains
criminal activities will certainly affect the of sub-contracts that conceal the true
pattern of crime, but this often means beneficiaries of e.g. public works projects,
displacing the main impact of crime from create shell corporations that conceal the
one sector or from one area to another, real owners of particular assets, establish
rather than reducing the overall level of offshore corporations and bank accounts to
criminal activity. This is why this approach move funds out of the jurisdictional reach of
is sometimes referred to as ‘squeezing the law enforcement, establish front businesses
balloon’; pressure applied in one location or to conceal illegal activity, create a facade of
on one form of activity will merely push the respectability for these businesses by serving
problems into another area where there is as proxy directors, launder money into real
less resistance [xx]. estate and other assets and holdings, and
allow or facilitate a range of other corrupt
###### The business of crime
financial and business transactions. It is the
Career criminals are not in the business of
facilitators that protect organized crime,
extortion, trafficking narcotics or weapons;
and allow it to flourish. They are also among
they are in the business of making money.
the primary beneficiaries of organized
Crimes of that type are motivated primarily
crime, as they take a significant percentage
by profit, so the only way to permanently
of the profits of extortion, narco-trafficking
reduce the level of crime is to take the profit
and murder, while continuing to pose as
out of crime[16]. This is now being done very
respectable citizens.
successfully in a number of other countries
with the aggressive use of Proceeds of Crime Targeting the top bosses and their
legislation. This allows law enforcement facilitators is therefore the most effective
agencies to seize the assets of organized way to degrade criminal networks, seize
16 Two of the most important factors in determining the level of crime are the profit margin and the perceived risk of detection and
punishment. The rate of crime will tend to increase when criminal activity is lucrative and when the risk of detection and punishment is
perceived to be low, so it is important to simultaneously increase the risk of detection and punishment (i.e. with more effective systems of
policing and justice) and remove the profits of crime (by seizing the assets of criminals and their facilitators).
-----
their assets and undermine their power, legitimate assets) are also used in tax evasion
which then allows these criminal networks (where people try to avoid paying the taxes
to be permanently dismantled. The countries to which they are liable), so the measures
that have started to make aggressive use needed to prevent money laundering can
of Proceeds of Crime legislation are all also help to reduce the level of tax evasion.
now extracting large volumes of cash from For example, Italy, where tax evasion was
criminals. For example: estimated to be 8% of GDP, was obliged by a
financial crisis to introduce controls in 2011-
- The London Metropolitan Police are now
2012 on some of the measures used to
seizing US$100,000 per day, on average,
avoid taxes. These controls then disrupted
from organized crime and money-
a number of the Mafia’s money-laundering
launderers. The UK as a whole recovered
operations, revealing the overlap between
or deprived criminals of over £1 billion in
these two forms of crime[xxii].
assets and profits from crime in 2011[xxi].
Much tax evasion takes place in sectors
- In 2011, the FBI brought in over US$12
of the economy where cash payments are
billion in seized assets and Court-ordered
common, including restaurants, garages and
restitution payments, as well as securing
construction sites, and where professionals
3,000 convictions.
also accept payment in cash, as funds can be
- The Monti administration in Italy transferred without accompanying records.
(November 2011 – December 2012) In Jamaica, entertainment is sometimes
estimated that the nation was losing used in money-laundering operations,
€275 billion (17.5% of GDP) each year because the cash generated by crime can be
in tax evasion and money-laundering, disguised as gate receipts.
which suggested that Italy could pay off
It is important to take all necessary steps
its entire national debt in less than six
to restrict both money laundering and tax
years if this money could be recovered.
evasion. However, it is also important to
At this stage, it is difficult to estimate the address the factors that increase the level
extent of the criminal assets that could be of tax evasion. In particular, the level of tax
seized in Jamaica. However, if the extent evasion tends to be higher where taxes
of the problem in Jamaica is in proportion are onerous, the tax system is complicated
to that in the UK, USA and Italy, it would and burdensome, and the probability of
mean that a successful program of asset detection is low. Measures to prevent tax
recovery could cripple organized crime while evasion, tax fraud and money laundering in
simultaneously helping to put the public Jamaica should therefore be accompanied
accounts in order and paying down the by measures to reduce the tax burden on
national debt. The first priority, however, legitimate businesses and PAYE workers,
is to break the power of organized crime to bring the informal sector into the tax net,
by sequestering criminal assets, as that and to simplify and streamline the process
will stem the haemorrhage of investment of tax collection. This will help to reduce
capital and skills from Jamaica. the level of tax evasion, improve the public
finances, and make it easier to identify
###### Money laundering and tax evasion
serious criminals.
Some of the same tactics used in money
laundering (where people try to conceal the
proceeds of crime and ‘launder’ them into
-----
###### Action Points
The fight against the crime that has crippled Jamaica requires decisive leadership. It also
depends on a ‘whole-of-government’ approach. National security is not the sole province
of the portfolio Ministry; key Ministries and Government agencies, such as the Ministries
of Finance and Justice, also have an essential role to play. It is important, therefore:
1. _Establish a permanent framework for inter-Ministerial cooperation on national_
security issues, under the auspices of the National Security Council, which is
chaired by the Prime Minister. Other specific recommendations include:
2. _Establish a task force . The successful prosecution of fraud and money laundering_
cases depends on the ability to manage and integrate complex legal, financial
and personal data from diverse sources and jurisdictions, so it is a high priority
to establish a high-level task force that will integrate the necessary strands of
information. This task force should not be disbanded after a few successes, as
it will take a long time to trace and seize the proceeds of organized crime, break
the power of the major criminals, eliminate the influence of the key facilitators,
destroy their reign of fear and eradicate the pervasive corruption that allowed
criminality to flourish.
3. _Upgrade the intelligence architecture, strengthen technical capacity . It is vital to_
strengthen the technical capacity needed to detect and unravel complex fraud
and money laundering operations.
4. _Establish a special court . The next section of this document outlines proposed_
reforms for the justice system. However, this is likely to be a lengthy process. In
the interim, therefore, it may be necessary to establish a special court with the
necessary technical support and expertise to hear serious cases of organized
crime, fraud and money-laundering[17].
5. _Denial of Assets. There should be automatic denial of tainted assets during_
trial. Criminals should not be allowed to pay their legal fees with the proceeds
of crime. Those accused of crimes such as fraud, extortion or money-laundering
should be required to demonstrate that the funds used to pay their legal fees
were obtained legitimately, and they should only be allowed to draw moderate
living expenses from frozen assets while their case is being determined.
6. _Asset Forfeiture . There should be automatic asset forfeiture on being found_
guilty of crimes such as major fraud, extortion, trafficking, embezzlement and
money-laundering, including not just the funds associated with the actual trial,
but all personal assets that cannot be proven to be clean, plus an estimate of the
lifetime personal profits derived from criminal activity, and confiscation of those
estimated profits[18].
17 This was one of the recommendations of the Jamaica Justice Reform Task Force Report of 2007
18 This is the model now used in other jurisdictions, such as the UK.
-----
###### Financial investigation
1. Increase the capacity of the Financial Investigations Division (FID) by granting it
stronger investigative powers, and more aggressive use of asset recovery. This
should be modeled on the cross-referencing initiative introduced in Italy in 2011
which allows tax officials to examine bank accounts to check declared income
against bank deposits, as well as real estate, investments and car ownership.
2. The FID should focus on profiling the most serious criminals instead of going
after ‘small dollar’ cases.
3. The Revenue Protection Division should be given a mandate to cooperate
with national security agencies in all cases involving suspected fraud, money-
laundering and tax evasion.
4. Regularly review the legislation relating to cybercrime, including scams, fraud,
extortion and the ‘grooming’ of victims by sex abusers to ensure that it remains
adequate to address one of the most rapidly-evolving forms of crime.
5. Accelerate the introduction of a National Identification System, as this would
help to prevent many forms of money-laundering and tax evasion (provided that
all public and many private transactions then required entering the national ID
number, including government offices, tax, banking, large money transfers and
investments).
###### Public contracts and licenses
1. Establish higher levels of transparency and oversight of the award of public
contracts. As far as possible, a ‘fit and proper’ criterion should be applied to bidders
for all government contracts and licenses. Major contracts should be subject to
vetting, so that any person or organization known to be involved in organized
crime, a front for organized crime or a significant beneficiary of organized crime
can be identified before the bid is awarded.
2. All government contracts should specify that if the contract is won by a person or
organization that is subsequently established to be involved in organized crime or
a front for organized crime, then part or all of the cost of the completed component
of the contract has to be refunded by the contractor, plus interest, with an additional
penalty to cover the increased cost of completing any unfinished components of
the contract.
3. All government contracts should specify that if the contract is won on the basis of
forged certification or certification obtained corruptly or by any other fraudulent
and/or material misrepresentation, then part or all of the full cost of the completed
component of the contract has to be refunded by the contractor, plus interest, with
an additional penalty to cover the increased cost of completing any unfinished
components of the contract.
-----
4. Amend the definition of Government Contract to include all major sub contractors
and other tributary contracts above a given threshold value (which should be
pegged to the value range of contracts which require the endorsement of the
National Contracts Commission)[19].
5. All contractors and major sub-contractors should be routinely required to
disclose the principal and beneficial shareholders of their respective companies.
6. Contracts for infrastructure projects should carry fixed-term maintenance
obligations and recoverable cost liabilities, so that any road (for example) that
deteriorates badly while in normal use within the given period has to be properly
repaired at the contractor’s expense.
###### Legislation
1. Increase significantly the penalties for contravening the Public Sector
Procurement Guidelines.
2. Merge the Corruption Prevention Commission, the Integrity Commission and
the Office of the Contractor General into a single Anti-Corruption Agency[20].
3. Review the Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA) to ensure that the legislation can be
extended to anyone who facilitates organized crime, and anyone involved in
corrupting the government’s contracting process.
4. Encourage the use of the Evidence (Special Measures) Act, 2012, which allows
evidence to be given by live link from remote locations, in cases where there is
a risk that witnesses might be intimidated, or where the victim (of e.g. a Lottery
scam) is an elderly citizen of another country, or where the victim or witness
is a child, and needs to be protected from the trauma of appearing in court[21].
The Evidence (Special Measures) Act can also be used to reduce the number
of prisoners on remand that have to be transferred between the correctional
centres and the courts, which will increase security and reduce cost.
5. Introduce Public Interest Immunity legislation, so that information from covert
sources can be taken into consideration in Court without the need to disclose
their identities.
6. Amend the Real Estate Dealers and Developers Act to close the loopholes
that currently allow illegal funds to be blended with legitimate investment
capital. Serious breaches should be made a first or second schedule offence,
as appropriate, under the POCA. The Real Estate Board should also be given
formal responsibilities under the POCA to monitor all transactions and report
any suspicious activity.
19 It will be necessary to incorporate precise definitions of major subcontractors, tributary contracts and threshold values into the relevant
contracts and legislation.
20 This proposal would supersede the Special Prosecutor Bill.
21 This is not the only measure needed to protect children who have to appear in court; others were proposed by the Child Development
Agency and were included in the Justice Sector Reform program. It is particularly important, for example, that cases involving children are
dealt with rapidly, in a child-friendly environment.
-----
7. Introduce reporting requirements for non-financial institutions under the POCA.
This includes professionals such as lawyers and accountants, agencies such as
the Real Estate Board, and possibly large-scale car dealers and entertainment-
providers [22], [23].
8. Introduce cash payment limits to prevent money laundering, tax evasion and
extortion. Any transaction above the set limit should be by credit card, cheque,
manager’s cheque, inter-account transfer or any other method that leaves a
record and an audit trail. Payments by the Government for goods and services
should be made by wire transfer, phasing out the use of cheques, as this will help
to reduce both cost and the risk of fraud and corruption.
###### Seized assets
1. Part of the funds seized should be re-invested in the asset seizure program and
the fight against organized crime. Part of the funds should also be returned to
the community to fund developments that will benefit everyone (such as new
schools, clinics, community centres, roads, water and drainage systems and street
lighting), as this is an essential part of the ‘hearts and minds’ strategy needed to
win the support of the community, and turn them against the criminals.
2. Some criminal assets can go to auction. In some cases, however, powerful
criminals may attempt to intimidate potential buyers. In such cases, it may be
necessary for Government agencies to retain control of the assets, converting
houses into schools, for example, and giving vehicles to the JCF and JDF to use
on patrol[24].
22 These two business activities are regularly used for money-laundering in Jamaica.
23 These entities can be given reporting requirements for threshold and suspicious transactions under POCA by Ministerial Order; legislation
is not necessary.
24 In Italy, cars seized from the Mafia are sometimes given to the police and used to patrol Mafia-dominated areas, which helps to
demoralize the criminals
-----
##### II. Reform The Justice System
_“When the sentence for a crime is not quickly carried out, the hearts of the people are_
_filled with schemes to do wrong.”_
_Ecclesiastes 8:11_
The justice system is made up of a number of and underpins Jamaica’s ability to seek the
separate agencies who are each responsible extradition of people in other countries
for operating, maintaining or enforcing part wanted for crimes in Jamaica. However, the
of the system of criminal and civil law. This judicial system currently has several serious
includes the courts, judges, justices of the weaknesses, which undermine the national
peace, prosecution and defence lawyers, the system of law enforcement and criminal
police, the prison service and correctional justice.
officers, the Ministry of Justice and the
- The system does not, in general, process
Ministry of National Security. It also includes
cases quickly and efficiently, so the
providers of services such as mediation, child
process of justice is often subject to
protection and victim support. Every one of
these agencies has to play its part efficiently inordinate delays. In 2010 there was a
if the justice system is to work properly. A backlog of some 460,000 court cases,
significant problem in any one of the key of which about half had been in court
agencies can have serious repercussions for for more than eight months. Cases,
the functioning of the system as a whole. particularly those involving murder,
rape, carnal abuse, and wounding with
The judicial system is a key part of the
intent, took more than two years, on
justice system. The judiciary includes the
average, to be settled . The situation
judges of the Supreme Court and the Court
of Appeal, and the magistrates. In this has improved since then, as a result of
context, however, it is also important to take a number of reforms, but the Justice
into account the prosecution and defence Ministry estimated in 2013 that there
lawyers, the staff in the court registries and was still a backlog of over 400,000 cases
court bailiffs. in the courts, of which some 205,000
were in the Resident Magistrate courts[25]
One of the greatest strengths of the judicial
There have been cases where people
system in Jamaica is that it adheres to
have remained on remand in police cells,
the principle of judicial independence,
remains immune to inappropriate political awaiting trial, for over two years. This
interference, and is largely uncorrupt, which is a very serious problem; the right to a
ensures the necessary confidence of other reasonably rapid and efficient trial has
countries in mutual legal assistance treaties, been established in law since 1225[26].
25 Almost 80% (about 160,000) of these cases in the Resident Magistrate courts are for traffic violations, most of which are relatively minor
offences, so reform here would greatly reduce the total backlog.
26 By clause 40 of the Magna Carta, which states “to no one will we refuse or delay, right or justice”.
-----
- The conviction rate even for some serious court. In some cases, this is simply because
crimes is low, for homicide it is just 5% . the process is so time-consuming[28]. In
The most significant deterrent of crime other cases, however, it is because the
is a high probability of detection and witnesses fear that their identification will
punishment, so this low rate of detection lead to reprisals, and that lengthy delays
and conviction is likely to be a significant and frequent acquittals will give ample
factor in Jamaica’s high level of homicide. opportunity for revenge attacks, which is
one of the reasons why so many cases do
- There have also been allegations of
not end in convictions. This in turn leads to
corruption, mostly focused on the Court
the second consequence, which is vigilante
Registries and the Court Bailiff system,
justice; in some communities suspected
but in some cases involving senior
thieves or child abusers are more likely to be
lawyers and members of the judiciary.
beaten or killed than delivered to the police.
There are probably relatively few corrupt
lawyers, judges, court officials or clerks in _Restoring faith in justice_
Jamaica, but criminals may only need one
Public confidence in justice depends on a
well-placed corrupt facilitator in order to
system that can deliver justice impartially,
escape justice. There has only been one
swiftly, effectively and economically.
charge of judicial corruption in recent
These goals are not just about efficient
years (and that charge led to a successful
management, but rest on the deepest
conviction), but the allegations suggest principles of the rule of law. It is important
that this might not be the only instance. to note that judicial reform can be both
These problems undermine public confidence rapid and effective. In Colombia, a process of
in the justice system, which can result in two judicial reform started in 2002. By 2008, the
damaging consequences. One is that many time needed to process a criminal case had
witnesses are willing to give information been reduced by 80%, and the conviction rate
to the police, but are reluctant to appear in had increased from 3% to 60%.
27 Over the period 2004-2010, 61% of homicides were unsolved, while 39% were ‘cleared’, i.e. the murderer was identified. However, of
the 39% that were cleared, 88% were cleared when the person thought to be the murderer was themselves killed, either in reprisal, or
else in a fight with police officers, or else did get to court but was acquitted (approximately 1/3’’ were killed; 2/3’’’ were acquitted). Just
12% of the 39% survived long enough to get to court, and were duly sentenced. This means that the conviction rate for murder is less
than 5% per year This also means that someone believed to be a murderer is about three times more likely to be killed and about five
times more likely to be acquitted than they are to be sentenced. This, in turn, means that increasing the severity of punishment (by, for
example, reintroducing capital punishment) is unlikely to have the desired deterrent effect, as criminals will realize that the punishment
is still unlikely to be applied.
28 This can also result in similar problems in recruiting juries.
-----
###### Action Points
Decisive action is required to resolve the current weaknesses in the justice system.
Some of the recommendations in this section were also made by the Jamaica Justice
System Reform Taskforce in 2007, but not all of the recommendations made by the
Taskforce have yet been implemented. The following steps are therefore recommended:
_Improve court management_
1. Modernize court procedures, systems, protocols and working practices, especially
in the Registries.
2. Strengthen the management of courts, especially with regard to scheduling (to
ensure that the accused, the relevant police officers, witnesses, the evidence,
prosecutors and defence lawyers all come before the court at the appropriate
time), and introduce penalties for delinquents (where there is no reasonable excuse
for lateness or non-appearance).
3. Extend court working hours from the current average of five hours a day[29].
4. Mandate the use of electronic records for case files, including witness statements
and precedents, and electronic tagging for physical evidence, as this will help to
improve efficiency and transparency, and the security and integrity of the records.
This process should start in the Court Registries.
5. Encourage judges not to tolerate the use of delaying tactics in order to defer the
execution of sentence (in some instances, this may have allowed time for evidence
to be contaminated or destroyed, witnesses to be intimidated or killed, or for the
case to lose political salience).
_Reduce delays_
1. Establish clear guidelines for granting adjournments. Only one adjournment should
be permitted per case unless there are exceptional circumstances. This is partly
to reinstate the right to a speedy trial, and partly to reduce the risk that evidence
could be lost or witnesses intimidated or suborned.
2. Require that Notice of Alibi should be given in advance (not necessarily the names
of those giving the alibi), as this will prevent one particular delaying tactic[30].
3. Abolish Preliminary Enquiries[31] (Preliminary Inquiries before magistrates, who may
then refer cases to the Supreme Court, are, on occasion, so extensive that the case is
effectively tried twice, and they can also offer an opportunity for some defence lawyers
to prolong the proceedings). The magistrate involved should make a preliminary
assessment of the evidence and documented pleadings and then, in instances
involving serious or organized crime, refer the case directly to the higher court.
29 The principle of judicial independence is a vital safeguard against political interference; its purpose is to ensure that everyone receives a
fair and unbiased trial. It does not mean that members of the judiciary are exempted from reasonable expectations as to their management
ability, workload, performance, productivity and the length of the working day.
30 This issue is also under review by the Ministry of Justice.
31 This is being addressed, with the introduction of the Committal Proceedings Bill.
-----
4. The burden on the Courts should be reduced with the use of plea bargaining and
alternative dispute resolution methods, including restorative justice, for minor
crimes[32].
5. Reform the management of traffic violations. The more effective use of traffic
cameras, with automatic fines, would remove the need for many cases to come
to court.
6. Accelerate the implementation of the other provisions in the Ministry of Justice’s
Backlog Reduction Strategy and the report of the 2007 Justice Reform Taskforce.
_Increase consistency_
1. Ensure greater consistency in the enforcement of laws and sentencing (a lack
of consistency makes outcomes more idiosyncratic and therefore encourages
‘judge-shopping’, which is where some defence lawyers try to contrive that their
client will come before a judge that they think will be more lenient). The Judiciary
should use sentencing guidelines, with tariffs. If a judge chooses to hand down
a sentence outside the guidelines, he or she should be required to give a formal
explanation.
2. The prosecution should be permitted to make recommendations as to the
appropriate sentence (as is currently the case in the UK and USA), although
the decision should remain with the judge.
_Increase effectiveness against organized crime_
The most effective way to break the grip of major organized crime bosses is to seize
their criminal assets, so it is important to strengthen and streamline the process of
assert seizure.
1. Give members of the judiciary additional training in the role and use of Proceeds
of Crime and Asset Forfeiture and anti-corruption legislation, and to encourage
them to routinely require persons convicted of serious crimes to prove that they
came by their assets legally[33].
2. There should be automatic asset forfeiture on being found guilty, including not just
the funds associated with the actual trial, but all assets that the convicted person
cannot prove to be clean, plus, where appropriate, an estimate of the lifetime personal
profits derived from similar cases, and confiscation of those estimated profits[34].
3. Provide additional training for police officers in the management of evidence and
the preparation of cases, especially with regard to POCA and anti-gang legislation.
4. Provide additional training for lawyers in the Office of the Director of Public
Prosecutions in the preparation of cases involving POCA and anti-gang legislation.
32 These issues are being addressed by the Justice Undertakings for Social Transformation (JUST) Program in the Justice Ministry.
33 For maximum impact, seized assets should be used to increase the size and capability of police POCA units, to upgrade police equipment,
and converted into community assets in troubled areas (as part of a ‘hearts and minds’ strategy to strengthen the community and erode
the power of the gangs).
34 This is the model used in the UK and USA.
-----
5. Review the Proceeds of Crimes Act 2007 to ensure that it contains similar provisions to
the 1982 Rognoni-La Torre law (Article 416 bis of the Italian Penal Code), which makes
conspiracy with organized crime a criminal offence, including laundering criminal assets,
collusion, fronting for or helping to conceal criminal operations, and gives courts the
power to seize the personal assets of persons involved in the conspiracy, as well as any
assets transferred to their relatives or partners in the prior five years, which allows the
seizure of the personal assets of anyone who assists a criminal to launder the proceeds
of their crimes.
6. Require judges to act more rapidly in approving forfeiture orders. These currently take
over 14 months on average, which gives criminals time to conceal or transfer assets.
7. Impose denial of tainted assets during trial (criminals should not be allowed to pay
their legal fees with the proceeds of crime); those accused of crimes such as fraud,
extortion or money-laundering should be required to demonstrate that the funds
used to pay their legal fees were obtained legitimately[35], and they should only be
allowed to draw moderate living expenses from frozen assets while their case is
being determined.
8. Ensure that the lawyers in the DPP’s office and judges are aware that the Proceeds
of Crime Act 2007, the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering Prevention) Regulations,
2007 and the Proceeds of Crime Regulations, 2007 are all applicable to lawyers,
bankers, accountants and other professionals. In particular, a lawyer that assists
their clients to conceal their assets or otherwise launder their funds is effectively
conspiring to weaken the system of justice in Jamaica and undermine the people’s
faith in law and justice, so any such case should be prosecuted to the full extent that
the law allows.
9. Ensure that lawyers cannot conceal possible cases of money laundering, fraud and
tax evasion behind the principle of client confidentiality by requiring that all sums
(over a set minimum) transferred or invested on behalf of clients are reported,
disclosing sources and amounts[36].
10. Review the Parole and Bail Acts to ensure that particular categories of criminals (homicide,
violent crime and sex crimes) are normally ineligible for parole or bail where there is a
clear risk that witnesses will be intimidated or murdered, or evidence destroyed[37].
35 In cases where the accused cannot demonstrate any non-tainted assets, it may be necessary to grant them legal assistance, with the
proviso that all costs should be recovered from the assets of the accused in the event of a guilty verdict
36 At present, the Bank of Jamaica is responsible for ensuring that financial institutions operating in Jamaica comply with anti-money
laundering provisions, but the Bank does not regulate lawyers, even though they may manage and invest significant sums of money
on behalf of their clients. Lawyers are subject to the Legal Profession Act, which requires a certain standard of the practice of law to be
maintained through the prescription of professional standards and etiquette. In addition, the General Legal Council has issued the Canons
of Professional Conduct and Etiquette; non-compliance may lead to the suspension or the revocation of the Certificate to Practice Law in
Jamaica. However, these standards may be insufficient to prevent corruption.
37 Bail has sometimes been granted even in cases where the person had been accused of multiple homicides, and was believed to have
already murdered a number of witnesses. This would be less likely to happen in the UK, where the Bail Act 1976 gives six separate grounds
on which the prosecution can argue for denial of bail (including a significant risk of the defendant committing a crime while on bail), and
where a person with a previous conviction accused of actual or attempted murder or rape would be granted bail only in ‘exceptional
circumstances’ (Crime and Disorder Act 1998). However, in some of these cases the reason for granting bail is that the police officers or
witnesses do not appear in court at the right time, which is another reason why it is essential to strengthen the management of courts
with regard to scheduling and time-keeping.
-----
11. Strengthen anti-gang legislation, where necessary, to ensure that gang membership
or association is defined as a serious criminal offence.
_Ensure the integrity of the judiciary_
1. Amend judicial letters of appointment to indicate the expected standards of
performance and incorporate the Judicial Code of Conduct and any further required
ethical standards, with provisions for removal from the bench for anyone who falls
significantly below the performance and standards required.
2. Members of the judiciary should be required to file annual declarations under the
Corruption (Prevention) Act.
3. Review the Legal Profession Act to strengthen the ethical standards required of
lawyers, and strengthen, if necessary, the power of the General Legal Council to
enforce such standards.
4. Members of the judiciary, defence and prosecution lawyers should be required to
submit to polygraph examinations if requested to do so by the Anti-Corruption
Commission.
5. Strengthen the ability of the Court Management Service to monitor the performance,
professional conduct and ethics of Registry staff and bailiffs.
_Ancillary reforms_
1. Strengthen the management of the chain of evidence. It is essential to have
protocols for the preparation of witness statements, police reports, and the
management of evidence from the crime scene to the police storage facility, the
forensic laboratory and the court, so that all parties involved can be confident that
the witness statements are authentic, that the facts in the police reports have
been recorded accurately, and that the evidence presented in court is the same
evidence that was taken from the scene of the crime (this is not currently the case;
many charges are dismissed because of inconsistencies and technical errors in the
evidence presented).
2. Ensure witness protection in cases where the witnesses might be at risk (witnesses
sometimes have to sit in the same waiting room as the accused, and their identities
are usually known, which makes it easier for violent criminals to intimidate
witnesses or have them murdered).
3. Ensure that all prisoners undergo rehabilitation training before discharge, in order
to reduce the rate of re-offending[38].
38 It is important to remember that prison serves as a deterrent and as a form of punishment, but also that almost every prisoner will
eventually be discharged back into society – most of them in a relatively short time. So it is important to ensure that prison also serves
as a means of rehabilitation.
-----
##### III. Policing by Consent
_The goal of the JCF should be to become a fully modern police service, and one of the most_
_respected, trusted institutions in Jamaica. Citizens must feel that they can trust and confide_
_in the police before they will be willing to give evidence against dangerous criminals. In order_
_to win the trust of the people, the JCF should focus on protecting the safety and security of_
_the people._
The JCF is already committed to a series act as judge, jury and executioner, because it
of reforms that have started to overcome is understood that police officers may have
the legacy of an adversarial relationship to make decisions in a fraction of a second,
between the police and the general public. often in extremely stressful circumstances,
In time, it will be replaced by one of trust, when a delay could easily result in the death
confidence and mutual respect. This is not of the police officer, or of a hostage, or of an
only a valid goal in its own right, it is also innocent bystander.
necessary in order to respond to the threats
This extraordinary power is not given lightly,
from organized crime, which will require a far
and every police officer has to be prepared
higher level of cooperation and information-
to account fully for his actions whenever he
sharing between the citizens and the police.
uses force that results in death or injury.
As a general rule, the only way to win This is just as true when the person killed
against a constantly-evolving threat is was a criminal, and had been trying to kill
to be significantly smarter, more flexible, police officers, as when the person killed was
adaptive and resourceful than the enemy. It an innocent bystander. Every use of lethal
is very difficult for a traditional, hierarchical, force has to be investigated, explained and
bureaucratic organization with a slow justified. This is to ensure that the power
decision-making process to win against granted to police officers is not abused. For
a rapidly-moving foe. In a complex, fluid, the police to retain the full confidence of
asymmetric conflict, law enforcement has the society they must be ready to account
to think strategically, and take the offensive for their actions. It is very important that
rather than let the criminals dictate the any police officer who seriously abuses his
terms of the struggle. Police forces also have power is removed from the police force, and
to adapt to be able to operate effectively in made to face criminal charges.
complex environments. This means adopting
It is important to note that a mistake is
a much flatter structure with a more devolved
not the same as an abuse of power. If an
decision-making process, so that officers on
officer is threatened by someone holding
the front line can make immediate tactical
a gun, shoots him in self-defense, and
decisions. This, in turn, can only work if every
then discovers that the person’s gun was
officer understands the goals, the priorities,
not loaded, that officer would normally be
the legal and moral context, and can make
exonerated, because he could not have
intelligent decisions accordingly.
known that the gun was not loaded at the
###### The use of lethal force time. The general legal principle is that if
Every police force in the world is authorized the officer tried to avoid killing the person,
to use deadly force in certain circumstances, but made a reasonable decision to use
usually when it is the only way to save lethal force on the basis of the information
innocent lives. Society grants police officers available to him at that moment, then his
the power, in such extreme circumstances, to use of force was lawful.
-----
###### Comparative rates of use of lethal force
When making comparisons between the level of violence in the society. In Jamaica,
rates of use of lethal force in different a country with one of the highest rates of
countries, it is important to note that there murder and violent crime in the world, it
are also some critical differences between is, sadly, probably inevitable that there will
countries in this regard. For example, most be a higher rate of use of deadly force by
officers in the UK are not routinely armed police officers[39]. However, every effort must
(except in Northern Ireland, where all be made to reduce the use of lethal force to
officers are authorized to routinely carry a the lowest possible level, both to save lives
handgun). The London Metropolitan Police and to increase trust in the police.
Service has 33,000 officers, of whom some
There are still two serious problems with
2,700 are authorized to carry guns, but very
the use of lethal force in Jamaica today, both
few of these are armed on a regular basis.
of which stem from the legacy of mutual
In addition, armed officers in the UK may
distrust between the police and particular
only use their weapons to stop an imminent
communities.
threat to life, and current policy is that the
‘use’ of a firearm includes pointing it at - Some police officers feel beleaguered,
someone, as well as firing it. For the whole misunderstood and unappreciated by
of England and Wales, there are less than society. Some of them have to risk their
7,000 officers authorized to use firearms; lives; most of them work in very difficult
firearms were authorized for almost 20,000 conditions for modest pay and pension.
operations between April 2008 and March The people who support and understand
2009, but weapons were only fired in four them are other police officers; so there is
instances. often a strong feeling of loyalty to each
other. This can, unfortunately, mean that
Police officers in the USA are routinely
some officers will collude in covering-up
armed. In the period 1991-2008 there
abuses by other officers, sometimes out
were, on average, 358 justifiable homicides
of misguided loyalty, sometimes out of
by police each year (this does not include
fear.
cases of unjustifiable use of deadly force).
However, this has to be put in the context - Some communities identify more with
of the greater use of weapons against the the criminals, and fear the police. This
police in the USA. Over the same period, on can mean that even the legitimate and
average, 60 police officers were killed each necessary use of force against criminals
year, while about another 100 officers were is condemned by the community; again,
saved because they were wearing body sometimes out of misguided loyalty,
armour. This means that for every two sometimes out of fear.
persons killed by a police officer in the USA,
With regard to the first failing; it is important
there was one equally deadly (or potentially
that every police officer should understand
deadly) assault on a police officer.
that the relationship between society and
So the use of deadly force by a police the police is far too important to jeopardize
officer has to be put in the context of the in order to protect one or two bad officers,
39 From 2006-2008 the average number of people killed in Jamaica each year by police officers was 262, while the average number of police
officers killed each year was 14. However, the average number of gun attacks on police officers is about 500 each year, so the ratio of
people killed to the number of potentially deadly assaults on police officers is similar to that in the USA.
-----
and that their behaviour increases the risk
to other officers.
With regard to the second problem; this will
require a long-term sustained effort to win
the hearts and minds of the community.
An important part of this strategy is that
the JCF should demonstrate that they are
always accountable, and that they will not
tolerate any abuse of police powers.
-----
###### Action Points
_Reassuring the public_
1. There should be increased transparency with regard to failures of proper procedure,
with independent investigation of every use of deadly force by the police.
2. Ensure that any police officer who is found to have seriously abused his powers is
removed from the police force and made to face criminal charges.
3. Give JCF officers increased training in the use of non-lethal options, equip more
officers with non-lethal technologies and develop appropriate protocols to ensure
that every officer can respond appropriately to each threat increase.
_Supporting the police_
1. Give increased counseling and other psycho-social support for police and security forces,
especially first-responders and others who are exposed to serious risk and trauma.
_Information management_
Good information management is required throughout the entire process of detection,
arrest, trial and conviction. Criminals cannot be convicted of crimes unless there is
sufficient evidence or testimony to establish their guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
1. There should be a transition to intelligent policing – intelligence-led policing, better
information management and access, and a total policing strategy that encourages
the sharing of relevant information between different police divisions. This will
require the further strengthening of performance tracking, with a national crime
map updated continuously to allow the management of crime hotspots and civil
unrest, modeled on the New York crime map information management system.
2. The JCF should institutionalize the use of predictive analytics software such as
CRUSH (Criminal Reduction Utilizing Statistical History), which looks for patterns
in crime records, intelligence briefings, offender profiles and other data to identify
where particular types of crimes are most likely to occur. The JCF should also
strengthen their capacity to undertake criminal profiling.
3. The JCF should accelerate the full integration of JCF information management
systems, phase out all paper-based recording, and mandate a transition to electronic
records, with templates developed for PCs and hand-held devices (such as smart
phones) to guide officers to input the data correctly. The first priority would be
to introduce these systems for crime recording, crime scene management and
management of the chain of evidence.
4. Automatic number-plate recognition software should be installed as part of CCTV
traffic management systems.
5. Take Integrated Ballistics Identification System (IBIS) records of all guns in Jamaica –
all police, military and legally-owned guns should be recorded, as should all criminal
firearms when seized.
-----
6. It is important to strengthen crime scene management, including the rapid debriefing
of first responders, with good systems for the management of physical, electronic
and all other forms of evidence. Many police forces manage the chain of custody
with the paperwork that accompanies the evidence. However, as it is possible for
paperwork to be lost, along with the physical evidence to which it is attached, the
recommended solution is to manage the entire chain of custody through a single
database, with secure information management systems that allow controlled
access for legitimate inputs and inquiries.
7. This system for the management of the chain of evidence has to be integrated with
the system for managing the documentation needed in Court. All paper records
used in the justice system should therefore be replaced with electronic records;
this will prevent case files from being lost.
8. The police should train more Scene of Crime Officers, and must have access to at least
one full-spectrum forensic laboratory which can process all types of physical, ballistic,
blood-spatter and biological evidence; including DNA analysis and body reconstruction.
_Supportive legislative reforms_
1. Introduce legislation for the mandatory registration of all cell phone numbers (this is
now routinely done in countries such as Mexico, which introduced this requirement
in order to assist in tracking kidnappers and extortionists).
2. Introduce legislation to require Cellular Service Providers to store call data for a
given period, and make these records available to police, with a valid warrant, when
this is needed to assist investigations.
3. Review the legislation that covers wiretaps and electronic intercepts in order to
allow the police electronic access, with a valid warrant, to a wider set of databases
in the pursuit of crime, including bank accounts, tax records and shipping manifests.
_Management of staff and resources_
It is important to deliver police services efficiently and cost-effectively. The following
measures are recommended:
1. Merge the ISCF into the JCF in order to improve efficiency and reduce cost.
2. The District Constable Act needs to be reviewed and upgraded in order to improve
the service provided and to address welfare issues.
3. The program of ‘civilianization’ (for positions in the JCF that do not require powers
of arrest) should continue.
4. The JCF should aim to have ownership of its buildings. Currently, it is a major drain
on public funds and the money currently spent on rent could be used to replace or
repair JCF buildings.
5. The JCF should have a proper fleet management plan for purchasing, servicing,
decommissioning and selling vehicles. Currently, most vehicles are purchased off
the lot and are not built to police specifications and as a result many of the vehicles
are not operational.
-----
##### IV. Adopt A Coherent Anti Gang Strategy
_No single strategy will solve Jamaica’s complex problems with crime and violence. A number_
_of coordinated, inter-locking strategies will be necessary, for the following reasons:_
- Most of the crime and violence in Jamaica to note that these organizations include
is the result of the activities of organized facilitators who may appear to be
crime and gangs, but part of the violence respectable citizens.
reflects personal and community-based
In order to make these important differences
problems, rather than organized forms
clear, major international criminal enterprises
of criminality. Each of these requires a
will be referred to in this section as trans-
different approach.
national and organized criminal structures
- There is a cycle of violence that is passed (TNOCs), while the term ‘gangs’ will be used
down through generations. Children who to refer to local street gangs and larger
are raised in poverty and exposed to gangs with more extensive operations.
violence are far more likely to become
There are about 250 criminal organizations
violent in their turn. It is essential to
operating in Jamaica[41]. Both the TNOCS
break the cycle of repeated trauma and and the gangs do significant damage to
violence by protecting and counseling Jamaica’s economy and social fabric, but
the children involved. the pattern varies. TNOCs may be involved
in international trafficking of weapons and
###### Transnational and organized crime
narcotics, fraud, scams, tax evasion and
###### and gangs
money-laundering. Gangs are responsible
There are important differences in the
for most of the public disorder and violence
structure and operations of criminal
in Jamaica; they dominate a number of public
enterprises, from sophisticated international
areas and crowd out legitimate businesses
operators to local extortionists, and different
through violence, threats and extortion.
approaches are required:
Some of the areas targeted for extortion
1. Local street gangs can be addressed with include buses, taxis, bars and entertainment,
a combination of focused deterrence driving out competition so that people are
strategy, violence reduction initiatives obliged to use their services.
and community-based policing.
There are connections between TNOC
2. Major gangs that operate in more than structures and local gangs. Money may
one area or sector can be addressed with be channeled by major criminals into local
a combination of focused deterrence gangs in order to extend their influence
strategy and clear, hold and build and power, while the local gangs provide a
tactics[40]. source of recruits; the most intelligent and
ruthless can aspire to rise up the hierarchy
3. Sophisticated international criminal
in the future.
structures require intelligence-led
operations, financial profiling, strong The problems with violent crime, corruption
proceeds of crime legislation and and the misappropriation of public funds in
international cooperation between law Jamaica will never be entirely resolved until
enforcement agencies. It is important the TNOCs and their support networks are
40 These approaches draw on game theory, psychology and population-centric counter-insurgency tactics, and are usually effective.
41 Data from 2010.
-----
largely dismantled. They are the instigators multinational businesses. Some of them
and beneficiaries of the corruption that cooperate in shipping and distributing
has directed public funds into the hands narcotics and firearms. Others will generate
of organized crime, and often resulted in cash through criminal activities in one
unnecessarily expensive or poor quality country, and launder it in another. It is
infrastructure, the beneficiaries of the therefore essential that law enforcement
proceeds of extortion, narco-trafficking, agencies cooperate equally effectively
frauds and other crimes, which have across national borders.
distorted the economy, fuelled inflation and
###### Trace the money, seize the assets
undermined legitimate businesses, and the
primary conduit for illegal firearms. With regard to TNOCs, the focus has to be
on tracing the money and seizing criminal
It is particularly important to disrupt and
assets. It is a common misconception that
prevent the imports of illegal firearms
the way to make progress is to intercept the
and ammunition, partly because they are
drugs, or the weapons. These organizations
responsible for about 80% of homicides in
are not, however, in the business of
Jamaica, and partly because they allow the
trafficking narcotics or weapons, they are in
local gangs to create an environment of fear,
the business of making money. If one form
which then enables them to extort money,
of criminal activity becomes less profitable,
coerce and control entire communities, and
or one trans-shipment route becomes too
intimidate people into remaining silent. It is
risky, they will adapt and diversify. They
important to intercept the shipments, but
are also relatively adept at laundering the
as noted earlier, it is even more important
proceeds of crime into a diverse array of
to dismantle the criminal networks that
legitimate businesses.
organize and manage the business, which
will require seizing the assets of those It is therefore essential to build up personal
involved in managing, organizing or in any and financial profiles of the TNOCs, of
way facilitating the trade. the leader, top lieutenants, and key
facilitators - lawyers, bankers, real estate
These problems can only be solved in
brokers, business managers and other
cooperation with law enforcement agencies
legitimate service providers - who are
in other countries. It is important to improve
involved in laundering the funds, serving
international cooperation and the flow
as proxy directors, managing the legitimate
of intelligence between law enforcement
businesses and providing a facade of
agencies in order to complete the financial
respectability.
profiles, trace assets, and track the
shipments of weapons and narcotics. This The key to taking down TNOCs is to
will require protocols to allow the transfer understand that they have to operate in
of intelligence, including transcripts of a web of connections. They need sources
telephone intercepts. This is the only of supply, access to markets and financial
way that it will be possible to unravel the services for money-laundering. They need
international connections for the shipments transport and communication links. Their
of guns and narcotics, and dismantle the leaders usually operate through lieutenants,
criminal organizations that operate these so it may take time to trace the connections
trades. back to the boss. Eventually, however, with
international and inter-agency cooperation,
A number of criminal organizations have
all these links and connections can be traced.
learned to operate very effectively as
-----
Many crimes can only be solved when the With regard to shipping, it is vital to note that
relevant information is pieced together. It illegal consignments will often be concealed
is particularly important to develop a full inside legal freight, so measures are needed
financial profile of someone suspected of to eliminate corruption and prevent the
playing a major role in a TNOC, as only then intimidation of customs officials[42]. There
does the disparity between their declared should be strong protocols and procedures
income and real wealth become apparent. It for scanning and checking containers and
is important to note that some of their assets other shipments. With regard to the latter
may be in other countries, so international point; this should be done without imposing
cooperation between law enforcement inordinate delays on trade, so this will
agencies is essential. It might be necessary, require investing in chemical sniffers and
for example, to examine bank records in order multi-dimensional scanners.
to see patterns of payments, match these
Individuals involved in money laundering,
with telephone records that show contacts
and trafficking people, weapons, ammunition
with weapons suppliers, cross-match these
or narcotics are typically resourceful and
with information from the Bureau of Alcohol,
resilient. They will respond to interventions
Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) on
and, try to anticipate moves. For every
arms sales, compare these records with
measure taken against them, they will try
shipping manifests that show when particular
to find a counter-measure. If one trafficking
shipments came in, trace cash payments to
route becomes too risky, they will find another.
contractors as profits from arms sales which
They will adapt and develop new tactics.
were laundered, and finally to link all these Some of them have influence, weapons,
together by mapping the connections and money, political allies and other assets, and
transactions between everyone involved. they may have penetrated law enforcement,
customs and other arms of government in
Particular sectors of the economy are more
order to get advance intelligence. The people
likely to be the focus of criminal activity.
who run major criminal cartels tend to be
Construction allows access to corruptly-
particularly ruthless, smart and adaptable,
awarded contracts, entertainment and
mainly because those who do not possess
casinos provide a ready way to launder cash,
these qualities tend not to get to the top or
and shipping companies allow the transport
to survive for long.
of weapons and narcotics. With regard to
the construction industry, it is important With regard to local gangs, here too, the focus
to have higher levels of transparency and has to be on seizing the assets. There are
oversight of the award of public contracts, young men in Jamaica, in their early twenties,
to insist on ‘positive vetting’ of contractors, who have never held a job, have no declared
to eliminate all bids from those with income, yet have accumulated assets over J$1
connections to organized crime, and to billion in value, all of which are the proceeds
ensure that security at building sites is of crime (typically the Lottery scam). With
provided by legitimate firms. With regard to the effective use of POCA, these assets can
entertainment and casinos, it is important be seized. It is not necessary to prove that
to insist on positive vetting of all applicants some particular asset was linked to a specific
for licenses, with automatic disbarment of crime; under POCA the court can seize all
those with connections to organized crime. assets that cannot be proven to be clean.
42 The proposed development of a Logistics Hub in Jamaica makes it particularly important to protect the shipping industry from criminal
involvement
-----
###### Non-organized crime
A significant part of the crime and level of violence will tend to be lower when
violence in Jamaica reflects personal and one gang dominates an area[44]. No such
community-based problems, rather than limitation applies with non-organized
organized crime. Organized crime has: crime. This is one of the main reasons
why the level of violence often rises when
- Objectives (e.g. money and power).
a dominant organized crime gang starts
- A hierarchy of command. to lose control, as the remaining members
are now reduced to a disorganized state
- Rules, with penalties for disloyalty.
and may also be fighting for dominance.
- Some level of specialization; the
members will have particular roles There are connections, however, between
organized criminal structures, local gangs
(money-launderer, enforcer, look-out,
and the level of non-organized crime in a
driver and so on).
community. For example:
The ability of the organization to function
effectively can be significantly disrupted - The organized criminal structures and
by arresting key individuals (which breaks the local gangs may form a hierarchy. The
links in the network), seizing assets (which major Mexican drug cartels, for example,
reduces the organization’s power), and sub-contract some tasks to local gangs.
reducing the influence and control that A significant level of organization is
the senior members have over the more required for trans-national shipments
peripheral members, (which undermines of illegal weapons and narcotics, and the
the organization’s cohesion)[43]. people who operate these trades may
then gain influence over one or more
This does not apply to non-organized
local gangs because they control the
crime; as the people involved are not
distribution of cash and weapons. They
organized into groups, and do not have
can then use local gangs as enforcers
specialized functions. Non-organized
and contract killers.
crime is less systematic, more anarchic
and random, and therefore cannot be - Individuals may progress through the
dismantled in the way that an organized hierarchy; starting as an at-risk street
criminal structure can. As non-organized child, then becoming associated with a
crime is not motivated by profit to the local gang, then becoming a full member,
same extent as organized crime, it cannot progressing to a more senior position,
be as readily disrupted by seizing assets. possibly becoming the dominant figure
in an area, forming contacts with major
The level of violence associated with non-
criminal organizations, moving into more
organized crime can be higher than with
lucrative forms of crime and so on.
organized crime, because the organized
gangs usually try to maintain a monopoly - The higher level of violence, stress and
on the use of violence in their area, so the fear, the readier availability of weapons
43 This typically involves giving the junior and peripheral members a way out of the gang, often in the form of a partial amnesty for
surrender and assistance with a return to normal life, combined with a relentless campaign against the senior, hard-core members, aimed
at denying them freedom of movement and communication, depriving them of their assets and making every part of their life as difficult
as possible.
44 This does not mean that the level of violence will be low elsewhere, in areas that are not part of the gang’s core territory. Violence tends
to be highest at the public spaces that mark the boundaries between gang territories.
-----
and the general break-down of law, order Effective anti-gang strategy almost always
and normal social structures in an area involves a combination of approaches and
will tend to spill over into other areas of tactics. Six of the most important are:
life. In particular, young people who have
been raped, abused, beaten or who have _1 . Focused enforcement_
lost their parents often show aggressive,
_2 . Community-based policing_
disturbed behavior.
_3 . Support for witnesses and victims_
- The higher level of stress, violence and
fear will induce many more young people _4 . Clear, hold and build_
to join a gang because they believe that
_5 . Prevent recruitment_
the gang will give them some measure
of protection, usually from another gang. _6 . Denial of liberty_
###### Action Points
_1 . Focused enforcement_
_Increase probability of detection and punishment_
One of the most powerful deterrents of crime is the probability of detection and
punishment. If the probability of detection is low, or the punishment is mild, there
is little effective deterrent. To be effective, punishment must have three qualities
– it must be certain, swift and severe. Many people assume that severity is the
most important factor, but it is actually the first two factors that have the biggest
influence on rates of crime. This is because the severity of the possible punishment
has little deterrent effect if the criminals perceive that there is a very low probability
of being detected and caught, as they don’t think that the punishment will be
applied. The effect of the severity of the possible punishment can also be weakened
if there are lengthy delays in judicial processing, as repeated appeals may reduce
the probability that the sentence will ever be carried out, and they also give time
for the intimidation or killing of witnesses. So the goal of focused enforcement is to
increase the probability of both detection and punishment. This typically requires
that resources are focused on just one gang (or on one area) at a time, usually the
most violent and dangerous, rather than spread them too thinly across all gangs. The
goal is to significantly increase the probability of detection of crimes by that gang,
which acts as a serious deterrent, as well as disrupting their operations, degrading
their capabilities, reducing their assets, eroding their power and eventually resulting
in the complete dismantling of that gang.
_Increase the speed of punishment_
The most effective way to disrupt a criminal structure is to build evidence against
an entire gang, especially the leadership, then to arrest them all at the same time.
This has a greater impact than arresting low-ranking members, who can be easily
replaced. It is also important to increase the speed of punishment. This requires
reform and streamlining of police and judicial procedures.
-----
_2 . Community-based policing_
This is sometimes seen as ‘soft’ policing, but is partly based on population-centric
counter-insurgency tactics.
a. This should be organized on a ‘Same Cop, Same Neighbourhood’ basis, with officers
being assigned to particular communities so that they become familiar with the
local residents, and get involved in helping to solve problems and resolve conflicts.
The role of community-based policing is to complement focused enforcement
strategies. The focused enforcement strategy will require tactical operations
against the gangs, while the role of community-based policing is to eliminate their
social support and influence.
b. Community policing should be supported by improved planning, regulation and
building control; this is in order to prevent illegal settlements, and to remove
abandoned buildings and any zinc fences used to create defensible spaces in which
gangs can operate.
_3 . Support for victims and witnesses_
a. Strengthen Witness Protection Programme
Some victims and witnesses have reported that they got little support or sympathetic
treatment in court. Some of them are exposed to threats of retribution or further
violence. This undermines faith in law, order and justice. It is very important,
therefore, that victims and witnesses should be protected and supported. This
means that victims and witnesses should be kept separate from the accused in
court, and that the witness protection program should be strengthened.
_4 . Clear, hold and build_
a. Adopt a Clear, hold and build strategy
Strong anti-gang measures are needed to normalize and integrate the worst-
affected communities. In areas where gangs are deeply entrenched, this will
require a Clear, Hold and Build strategy. These are operations that can clear gangs
out of entire communities; hold those areas by maintaining a strong, continuous
police presence to provide lasting security, and then build a robust civil society
by engaging other government agencies and NGOs to provide education, training,
economic opportunities, health care and prompt justice. The goal of this clear, hold,
and build strategy is to reassure the community, remove their fear of gangs, build
sustained popular support, increase the flow of intelligence about gang operations,
and ensure that gangs have no safe haven anywhere.
_5 . Prevent recruitment_
a. Disrupt the process of gang member recruitment
There are effective tactics, developed in the cities of Boston and Glasgow, for
interrupting the process of recruitment to local street gangs. These involve call-ins
for the gang members and confrontations with victims, followed by the presentation
of a clear choice – reform, and qualify for assistance and job-training, or remain in
-----
the gang; anyone that chooses to remain an active gang member should then be
subjected to every possible form of legal harassment by every arm of government
(tax compliance, vehicle licensing, business permits and so on should all be made as
difficult as possible for known gang members who refuse to give up their criminal
connections).
_6 . Denial of Liberty_
a. Violent criminals should not normally be granted bail, especially when there is a
clear risk that witnesses will be intimidated or murdered, or evidence destroyed.
-----
## V. Focus On At-Risk Individuals And Communities
_It is important to deal with both crime and the causes of crime. Taking the profit out of_
_crime helps to demoralize the criminals; anti-corruption measures can be used to shut off_
_the supply of public funds, the supply chain for weapons and ammunition can be broken by_
_disrupting organized criminal structures, and strong anti-gang legislation and tactics can_
_make the gangs far less powerful. However, it is equally essential to address the social_
_problems, such as the cycle of violence and poverty, as otherwise the problems of crime and_
_violence will reappear._
###### Breaking the cycle of violence
Children are particularly vulnerable to Social Development Commission, the
violence. Some of the children that do Citizen Security and Justice Program,
not do well at school are from broken or the Jamaica Social Investment Fund, the
dysfunctional families, and have limited Community Renewal Program, the Safe
social skills; others are seriously traumatized, Schools Program, the Neighbourhood Watch
having been abused, raped, beaten, or having Program and so on, and employment-
seen family members murdered. Children creation programs, such as the Jamaica
that have lost one or both parents or a close Emergency Employment Program and the
relative to violence often show aggressive, former Jamaica Development Infrastructure
disturbed behaviour, which can result in Program. Significant resources have been
their being punished or excluded at school, committed to these programs, but none
thereby damaging them further, and making of them have brought about a sustained
it more likely that they will become gang reduction in the level of crime and violence,
members[45]. reduction in the level of unemployment, or
increase in economic growth. This is because
Many of these children have never had
these programs have never been integrated
any support or counseling. Given that
into a coherent strategy, inter-Ministry and
severely disturbed children often come
inter-agency coordination is usually poor,
from dangerous and dysfunctional homes,
and there has been a lack of clarity as to the
the most effective place to intervene is
primary goal of social intervention.
usually in school, but many teachers have
Similarly, there have been various strategies
not been trained to recognize or deal
to reduce crime, but most have not been
with these problems. Every school should
sustained for long enough, resources have
therefore have a program to deal with
been insufficient, and, in some cases, there
maladaptive behavior, post-traumatic
has been inappropriate political interference
stress, depression and other long-term
to direct the resources to particular groups.
consequences of physical, sexual, emotional
There have been several attempts to apply
and psychological abuse.
a clear, hold and build policing strategy;
###### Social interventions the JCF and JDF can clear and hold, but the
There are a number of social intervention crucial third element does not usually follow.
agencies and programs, including the Eventually, the level of police and military
45 Neglected or traumatized children are more likely to join gangs, partly for protection, and partly as a substitute for a family. A related
problem is that some areas then have serious problems with gang-related violence in the schools, as these become battlegrounds
between gangs.
-----
commitment has to be drawn down, the formation of the gangs. It will need a long-
gang may then return and the community term commitment to confidence and peace-
will typically revert to its former behaviour. building measures to irreversibly change the
anti-police culture and garrison mentality in
It is critically important, therefore, that
some communities. It is also important to
any future intervention by the JCF and JDF
is properly supported by the other arms engage schools, youth clubs, church groups
of government, and that the government and other relevant agencies in these social
remains engaged in that community until the interventions, as many of them have deep
people again have confidence in the police, roots in the communities and can play a
and faith in law and order and justice, so powerful role in engaging youth and providing
that they will then resist the return or re- an alternative to gang membership.
###### Action Points
_Breaking the cycle of violence_
1. Every school has a programme to deal with maladaptive behavior, trauma, post-
traumatic stress, depression, and other long-term consequences of the physical,
sexual, emotional and psychological abuse of children.
_Social Intervention_
1. _The first goal of all intervention programs should be a sustained reduction in the_
_level of crime and violence . All other social goals (such as increased investment,_
job-creation and long-term, skilled employment) depend on the primary goal
of ensuring safety and security; they cannot be achieved without a marked
reduction in crime, violence, corruption and extortion. All social intervention and
employment-creation programs should therefore be part of the anti-gang and
community regeneration initiative.
2. Much stronger coordination and co-operation is needed among the social intervention
agencies and programs. These agencies have different parent Ministries, so
cooperation will have to be mandated by the Prime Minister.
3. _Self-sustaining process of economic regeneration . It is important that communities_
do not become dependent on scarce public resources, so all interventions should
come with an exit strategy. Once economic confidence has returned, money is being
invested and viable businesses are being established, the public funding should
start to taper off and be reallocated to the next community in need.
46 In Brazil, the police and army will typically give up to a week’s advance notice of their intention to move into a crime-dominated favela.
47 This should be incorporated as a provision in the Anti-Gang legislation.
48 This will require that these officers are properly trained in community policing, with a particular emphasis on human rights.
-----
###### A Clear, Hold And Build Strategy For Jamaica
The Sequence of intervention:
_PHASE 1: CLEAR ._
_PHASE 3: BUILD ._
After intelligence-gathering, the JDF and
The full spectrum of social intervention
JCF would go into a troubled area with
and employment creation programs
overwhelming strength and dominate the
would then prioritize the same area. The
streets. They would signal their intention
Community Safety and Security Branch,
to do so[46]; as the goal is to ensure that
the National Interschool Brigade, the Safe
the gang members flee or are arrested,
Schools Program and Neighbourhood
not to have a gun battle in the middle of
Watch Program should all be engaged in
a densely-populated urban area. Gang
the process of community reconstruction
members who are arrested should be
at this stage. In addition, the Social
denied bail, so that they cannot return to
Development Commission would
the area to organize armed resistance[47].
prioritize the area; the Ministry of
_PHASE 2: HOLD ._ Education would prioritize the schools in
The JDF would withdraw, the JCF would the vicinity for improvements, including
remain in significant strength, but officers assigning specially trained teachers and
trained in community policing would take child counselors. The Ministry of Health
the lead once the level of violence has would prioritize the health facilities for
subsided[48]. The locally-based community upgrading, with particular support for
officers should then remain committed physical and mental health education,
to the area for extended periods, using inoculation programs for children and
the ‘Same Cop, Same Neighbourhood’ sexual health programs for adults, the
approach. This is to ensure that the Ministry of Transport and Works would
officers become familiar with the local prioritize the roads in the area for repair,
residents and issues, and can help to the utilities would ensure adequate
solve problems and resolve conflicts. (metered) supplies of water, electricity
This will also help to ensure a flow of and so on[50], the National Training Agency
intelligence from the community to local would prioritize the area for job-related
officers about any gang members that training and the private sector could be
try to return or resume their former offered tax relief if they set up business
behaviour[49]. in these areas.
46 In Brazil, the police and army will typically give up to a week’s advance notice of their intention to move into a crime-dominated favela.
47 This should be incorporated as a provision in the Anti-Gang legislation.
48 This will require that these officers are properly trained in community policing, with a particular emphasis on human rights.
49 There have been complaints in the past that operational policing – especially where paramilitary units are involved – can undermine the
work of the community police and the social intervention agencies. This is why the timing and sequencing of these phases is very important.
50 In areas that have been used to not paying for their water and electricity, it would be sensible to offer a transitional period of 1-3 years
at a lower tariff before returning to a standard tariff.
-----
###### A tough love approach
It is very important to ensure that public with assets seized from the criminals and
funds and training programs can be gangs. The source of the funds should be
accessed by reformed gang members publicized in order to emphasize to the
who want a chance to lead normal community that their poverty and misery
lives, but are not captured by the gangs had been inflicted on them by the gangs,
themselves; some of them are adept at and that the wealth that had been stolen
masquerading as legitimate community from the people was being returned.
groups. One option is to operate a weapons
It is important to depoliticize the conflict
exchange program, where weapons are
with the gangs, so that all the above
surrendered in exchange for employment
initiatives are entirely apolitical, and
training and access to low-interest loans
focused solely on dismantling criminal
for business start-ups. However, this is
structures and reducing the level of
unlikely to work until the former gang
violence. The initiatives should all be
members feel safe enough to surrender
designed primarily to give at-risk youth
their weapons; most peace programs do
and the less committed gang members
not attempt to decommission weapons
a way out. This will make it possible
until the community feels confident that
to identify and isolate the remaining
there will not be a return to violence.
hard core gang supporters, than to put
This strategy requires a ‘tough love’ them under pressure on multiple fronts
approach, which involves offering simultaneously.
attractive inducements for giving up
Over the longer term, the planning system
a life of crime (including, for example,
must be strengthened and enforced
secure neighbourhoods, better schools,
in order to prevent the formation of
community centres and training aimed
any potentially isolated and defensible
at making young people employable),
spaces within Jamaica’s cities, or the
coupled with harsh penalties for those
construction of more squatter or garrison
who do not change. With regard to the
communities, and to ensure that political
penalties, a multi-agency approach is
factors are not taken into account when
essential, so that gang members who do
deciding on the allocation of houses or
not agree to change their behaviour can
land. This issue is addressed in more
be subject to intrusive inspections of all
detail in the discussion of informal
areas of their lives.
settlements in Tier 3 (below).
As far as possible, all the improvements
in a troubled area should be financed
-----
## VI. Strengthen Systems Of Governance
National development depends on a number The key to solving the problems of crime
of factors, but one of the most important and corruption, therefore, is to build
factors is the quality of national institutions; strong, competent, politically-neutral,
countries with good institutions can survive trusted institutions, which will strengthen
most crises, whereas countries with bad or the integrity and the moral authority of
weak institutions cannot develop a coherent the state. This will require severing the
response to their challenges and are remaining connections between politics and
therefore more likely to fail under pressure. crime, taking strong measures to prevent
This conclusion is supported by the World corruption, reforming the justice system,
Bank 2011 World Development Report, and restoring the people’s faith in law and
which found that the most significant justice by demonstrating that no-one, no
predictors of violence are unemployment matter how wealthy and powerful, is above
(violence is also the main deterrent to the law.
saving and investment, so perpetuating the
problem) and the legitimacy of government;
countries with good governance are much
less likely to have high murder rates.
###### Action Points
Some of the measures needed to strengthen governance are addressed in more
detail elsewhere in this document. The key measures include the following:
1. Move the focus away from reactive and containment strategies to concentrate
on dismantling criminal organizations, including their facilitators
2. Seize the proceeds of crime
3. Strengthen anti-corruption measures
4. Increase transparency in the public accounts, especially with regard to
procurement
5. Reform the justice system
6. Improve intelligence-sharing with key strategic partners
7. Encourage the DPP and the Judiciary to vigorously pursue the most serious
cases of high-level corruption and illegal enrichment.
-----
## Addressing Tier 2 Threats Major Potential Threats
_I . Traditional threats_
The Tier 2 traditional security threats to Jamaica are:
- The Mexican, Central or South American drug cartels and maras gangs, which could
seek to extend their influence and diversify their operations across the Caribbean.
- Terrorism, possibly aimed at tourists. The tourism industry would be a soft target,
and offer the opportunity to create mass casualties and cause extensive economic
damage to countries seen as sympathetic to the USA.
_II . Non-traditional threats_
- Potential shortages of energy and other resources, natural hazards, climate change
and environmental degradation.
Tier 2 threats are high impact, low probability is evenly distributed over 100 years,
events. These are _major potential threats,_ that gives a 1% chance of a magnitude
in contrast to Tier 1 threats, which are a 7 earthquake in any one year, and a
clear and present danger. There are five 5% chance of occurring within the next
particularly important characteristics of Tier five years. This is a serious risk, but a
2 threats. lesser risk than the Tier 1 threats such
as organized crime, which - because
1. Some Tier 2 threats have the potential
they are already happening - have a
to cause catastrophic harm to Jamaica.
probability of 100%.
It is therefore very important to actively
monitor all Tier 2 items, and be prepared 4. Tier 2 includes a wide range of diverse
to rapidly upgrade them to Tier 1 if threats, with different combinations of
necessary. assessed probability and likely impact.
For example, it includes threats such as
2. Tier 2 includes both traditional security
climate change which currently appear
threats that should be addressed by
to be likely to happen, but where the
military, police and intelligence services,
main impacts are probably not going
and non-traditional security threats
to be experienced immediately, threats
that have to be addressed by other
such as an attack by fundamentalist
Government agencies. Inter-Ministry
terrorists, which currently appear to be
cooperation is essential.
relatively unlikely to happen, but where
3. The concept of ‘low probability’ refers the risks may be higher now than they
to a particular period of time, i.e. the will be in future decades, and threats
probability that an event will occur within such as infiltration by Mexican drug
a given time horizon. For example, it is cartels, where the impact could be
inevitable that Jamaica will experience exceptionally high, but the probability
a major earthquake one day, as it sits is indeterminate, mainly because it
above several active faults. If this risk depends on a large number of interacting,
-----
intervening variables[51]. So Tier 2 contains _Planning for Tier 2 threats_
a set of high-impact, low-probability and
The process of planning and preparing for
unpredictable events.
Tier 2 threats is significantly different from
5. Many Tier 2 threats originate outside the process of addressing Tier 1 threats.
Jamaica, or have natural causes, so there There is little ambiguity about a Tier 1 threat,
is little or no possibility of controlling although there may be differences of opinion
them at source. These threats as to how best to address it. However, some
therefore require constant vigilance and Tier 2 threats have not yet happened, and
monitoring. some of them may never happen. This means
that the planning process has to be based
In general, the most effective response to
on horizon scan assessments to identify
a Tier 2 threat is to identify cost-effective
possible ‘unknown unknowns’ in the threat
ways to improve early-warning systems,
environment, critical, independent reviews
reduce exposure and strengthen resilience,
to probe potential weaknesses in existing
so that there is more advance warning
defence systems, and counter-factual
of an imminent attack or disaster, the
reasoning, which includes asking questions
impact is significantly less than it would
such as ‘what would have happened if our
have been otherwise, and core systems
security systems had failed’, in order to
(such as government, national security,
identify vulnerabilities and test resilience.
communications and trade) are sufficiently
robust and can withstand the impact.
51 Organized crime is a highly complex and adaptive form of human behaviour, which evolves in response to both opportunities and
pressure from law enforcement. One reason why its future development cannot be predicted with any certainty is that criminals are often
quick to take advantage of new technologies. Another is that any intervention (such as a change in police tactics) disrupts the current
pattern of risks, benefits and motives, and the pattern of crime then changes, sometimes in some quite unexpected ways. For example,
cybercrime is now emerging as a greater threat than narcotics trafficking, because it offers greater profits and lower risks to the criminals,
which illustrates both of the above points.
-----
###### I. Traditional threats
_Organized crime and terrorism_
Organized crime is motivated by profit, violence for profit are usually pragmatic;
power and prestige, while terrorism is people willing to slaughter innocents are
motivated by a political or religious cause. unlikely to have scruples about dealing with
However, some terrorist organizations have criminals, while criminals who supply illegal
developed substantial criminal operations weapons are unlikely to discriminate on the
in order to finance their activities, while the basis of the motives of their customers. So
tactics used by some gangs are increasingly organized crime serves as a ‘force multiplier’
similar to those of terrorist groups with for terrorists, giving them access to cash
political agendas. In Mexico, most of the and weapons.
Central American states and Jamaica, for
Another reason why the boundaries have
example, there have been many instances of
become blurred is that some organizations
violence intended to intimidate people from
started as politically-motivated terrorists,
cooperating with law enforcement, including
but then evolved into largely criminal
the killing of witnesses, neighbours, friends,
organizations, while some criminal
relatives and children, as well as members
organizations have developed a quasi-
of the security services and the church, and
political platform. An example of the former
the destruction of both private and public
is the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de
property. The intention is to create terror,
Colombia (FARC), which was founded as the
which will allow gang members to operate
military wing of the Colombian Communist
with impunity. They can then operate a
Party in 1964, but is now largely focused
range of criminal enterprises, including
on trafficking cocaine; an example of
extortion, in communities too cowed to
the latter is the Caballeros Templarios
resist them. Terrorists use fear to give
(Knights Templar) drug cartel in Mexico;
themselves publicity and political leverage;
the members take an oath to ‘fight and
the goal being to break the will of a more
die for social justice’, and they claim to be
powerful state to resist. Narco-terrorists
the protectors of the people, even though
use essentially the same tactic, but the
their main activities are narco-trafficking,
goal is different; narco-terrorists are not
murder and extortion.
interested in running a state, their goal is
to hollow it out and leave it so weak that Successful terrorist organizations and drug
they can operate with impunity. cartels have other attributes in common.
They tend to be resourceful, adaptable
The line between crime and terrorism has
organizations. They study the strengths
been further blurred by the cooperation
and weaknesses of their enemies, and seek
between criminal and terrorist organizations.
new weapons, tactics and opportunities.
For example, insurgents controlled much
of Afghanistan’s opium exports, while the
Italian Mafia has supplied illegal weapons
to Iraq. Terrorists will organize criminal
activities to raise funds, or buy weapons
from criminal organizations. The connections
between those willing to use violence for
political ends and those willing to use
-----
###### The Mexican cartels
The Mexican drug cartels are currently 55,000 people died in Mexico’s ‘war on
the dominant criminal networks in the drugs’, including many cartel members,
Americas. They supplanted the Colombian but also including some 1,500 police and
cartels in the 1990s, and now control about army officers, over 1,000 children and many
90% of all the illegal narcotics exported to civilians. There are a number of factors that
the USA. They are full-spectrum criminal led to the emergence of the Mexican cartels,
organizations, involved in drug and weapons and to the use of extreme violence:
trafficking, extortion, kidnapping, contract
- The USA is the world’s largest market for
killing, human trafficking, money-laundering,
illegal narcotics, and the destination for
corrupting public officials and theft, amongst
many of the world’s illegal immigrants.
other forms of crime. Estimates of their
- Mexico, by virtue of its geographical
combined income from narcotics trafficking
location, is the main transshipment
alone range from $13.6 billion to $49.4 billion
annually[xxiv]. If these estimates are accurate, route for narcotics, illegal immigrants
their annual income might be two or three and contraband from Mexico, Central
times larger than Jamaica’s GDP. and South America into the USA.
- Everywhere there is a trade in illegal
Conservative estimates of the number
narcotics; there is a parallel trade in
of cartel members and affiliates suggest
illegal firearms. This is because the
that they have at least 100,000 ‘soldiers’,
although other estimates that suggest that narcotics are illegal, so investments in
just one cartel, the Sinaloa cartel (one of the the trade cannot be protected by patents
two largest) employs about 150,000 people. and contracts. All transactions therefore
The Mexican cartels also sub-contract some depend on violence (or the credible threat
tasks to the maras (gangs) in Guatemala, of violence) in order to ensure control
Honduras and El Salvador, such as Mara over territory and payment for supplies.
Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Calle 18 (18[th] Street
- The USA is the world’s largest exporter
Gang, or M18), who also have an extensive
of weapons. As a result of the second
presence in the USA. MS-13 is estimated to
Amendment to the Constitution[53], the
have some 30-50,000 members, while M18
USA has liberal policies with regard to
is estimated to have some 65,000 members.
firearms. There are nearly 7,000 retail
The cartels and maras have a combined
outlets that sell firearms within 20 miles
strength of at least 250,000–500,000
of the border with Mexico, so the Mexican
‘soldiers’ and affiliates, and have a presence
cartels have no difficulty in obtaining
throughout the Americas[52].
weapons, up to and including military-
The Mexican cartels are exceptionally grade matériel. Some of the cartels have
violent. Between 2006 and 2012, some armoured vehicles, helicopters, machine
52 The cartels are not unitary organizations, but flexible, adaptable networks. Some of them have a ‘wheel’ structure, where specialist sub-
groups are organized around a core group; others use a ‘chain’ structure, where networks of specialists operate without a single core group.
The larger cartels have cores, which typically consist of people who are related or who have known each other for a long time. The rest
of the cartel consists of specialist sub-groups, who serve as processors, shippers, distributors, enforcers, assassins, managers, brokers,
accountants, intelligence operatives, money-launderers etc.
53 The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States that ‘A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free
State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed’.
-----
guns and rocket-propelled grenades of teenagers, taxi drivers, police officers and
(RPGs) in their arsenals[54]. others to act as lookouts on the streets.
- The cartels have corrupted many police The cartels constantly innovate, changing
and army officers. In some regions of their routes and techniques, rotating their
Mexico, the Government has dismissed couriers and moving their operations in
municipal police forces, because the order to evade detection. They frequently
entire police force was believed to be buy legitimate businesses in order to access
working for one of the cartels. These new methods of shipping narcotics or cash.
police and army officers have supplied Cartels have bought, for example, factories
expertise and combat training to the that supplied timber, concrete blocks, frozen
cartels. vegetables, coffee and roofing tar in order to
- One of the most technologically capable, hide narcotics in these products. They use
sophisticated, and dangerous cartels, cash collected in the US to buy luxury goods,
Los Zetas, was founded by former then ship these back to Mexico for resale
elite Special Forces troops. They were in order to move the money across the
originally hired as enforcers by the Gulf border. When a shipment is intercepted, or
Cartel, but became their competitors in a major cartel member arrested, the cartels
2010. will research and analyze the event. They
send people to listen to court proceedings
- The cartels are engaged in a complex
and collect newspaper clippings, comparing
and fluid war with the State and with
different accounts in order to determine
each other. This has led to a dramatic
the truth. The Cali Cartel, for example, hired
escalation in the use of extreme
lawyers in the USA to obtain copies of
violence by cartel members to retaliate
criminal complaints, indictments, wiretap
against their rivals, intimidate the
affidavits, intelligence reports and other
security forces and cow the population.
documents that described in detail how law
Torture, disemboweling, dismembering,
enforcement agencies had investigated and
decapitation and dissolving in acid are
penetrated the Cartel. The lawyers in the
now routine.
USA were able to obtain all these records by
The successful cartels see knowledge and
Right to Discovery (this is the right to compel
skill as crucial resources; they hire chemists
the opposing party in Court to disclose the
to process drugs, lawyers to control criminal
material facts and documents that are the
proceedings, police officers to help them
basis of the charges brought against the
evade law enforcement and build intelligence
accused, including written statements from
networks, soldiers to kill their rivals, pilots
witnesses) and then sent copies directly
to fly their aircraft, mechanics to build
to the Cali Cartel. This information is, of
armoured cars, naval engineers to build
course, invaluable to organized crime, as
submarines, mining engineers to construct
it allows them to identify and then kill the
underground railways and ICT experts to
witnesses[xxv].
track police communications and cell-phone
networks. The cartels also recruit networks
54 Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean nations sit at the intersection between these two trades; the flow of narcotics going north,
and the flow of weapons going south. These two factors, in conjunction with a number of weak governments with high levels of corruption,
are the main reasons why seven of the world’s ten most violent countries are in this region.
-----
###### Threat to Jamaica
The cartels are currently expanding The Caribbean nations offer an attractive
aggressively, acquiring production facilities combination of hotels, casinos and low-tax
and money-laundering opportunities in regimes, which can be used for money-
Central America, undermining and hollowing- laundering, and marinas and trans-
out government structures in order to be shipment operations, which can be used for
able to operate with impunity, taking over the distribution of narcotics and weapons.
downstream distribution in the US and
It is likely that the first signs of Mexican
Canadian markets, and forming connections
drug cartel interest in the Caribbean would
with other organized crime cartels, such
be in the form of foreign investment
as the N’drangheta, in Italy, for narcotics
in trans-shipment facilities, hotels and
distribution in Europe. They also have
casinos, entertainment complexes, shipping
contacts and business dealings with criminal
and fisheries, which would allow them
organizations in Spain, Albania, Serbia and
to establish a presence and acquire the
Eastern Europe, the coastal states in West
strategic assets needed to support their core
Africa, Japan and many other regions.
business activities. Without prior warning as
With regard to the potential threat to to the true identity of the investors, these
Jamaica, the critical issue is whether investments would be welcomed as a sign
the Mexican cartels might expand their of confidence in the Jamaican economy. The
interests across the Caribbean. Their cartels would probably use local business
sophistication, contacts, capabilities, people, lawyers and public officials, especially
wealth, numbers, and access to military- those already linked to organized crime, to
grade weapons and explosives would facilitate these transactions and establish
make them a formidable opponent. front companies.
###### Action Points
1. It is important to track signs of cartel interest in the Caribbean. Relevant indicators
include:
a) Evidence that the cartels are acquiring shipping companies and port operations,
as they might then seek to expand their trans-shipment operations across the
Caribbean.
b) The rate of interceptions of narco-submarine and surface vessel shipments in
the Caribbean, which will indicate the extent to which shipments are being re-
routed from the cross-border and Pacific routes (the number of intercepts has
increased significantly in the last couple of years).
c) Reports of increasing cartel involvement in other Caribbean jurisdictions (they
already have a presence in several other Caribbean countries).
2. It is important to establish intelligence-sharing links with the relevant US agencies,
including the FBI, DEA, ATF, and Southern Command, and with security, police and
intelligence agencies in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador,
as well as other Caribbean jurisdictions. This will then allow for ‘due diligence’
background checks on investors, especially from Mexico and Central America, to
see whether any of them have known connections to organized crime.
-----
###### Terrorism
Terrorism is a form of political violence, ‘legitimate’ is often stretched to include
typically utilized when one faction does anyone that is not an active supporter
not have the strength to overcome its of the terrorist organization. Systematic
enemy militarily. The goal is to force the terrorism is usually aimed at territorial
other side to concede by inflicting more autonomy, often with an additional
casualties and damage than they can bear. political ideology (such as a socialist or
A related goal may be to weaken a nation’s one-party state), although the killing of
resolve by turning citizens against their own political opponents in order to repress
government, usually with a combination
dissent is also a form of systematic
of violence (to convince people that their
terrorism. This therefore includes the
government is failing to protect them) and
routine intimidation and murder of
propaganda (sometimes from sympathizers
protesters by repressive governments.
rather than the terrorists themselves) to
- By contrast, random terrorism (as
encourage doubts about the government’s
practiced by al-Qaeda and al-Shabaab)
stance. However, the nature of terrorism
is usually aimed at the destabilization
has changed in some important respects
or destruction of the existing political,
over the last two decades, and will continue
religious or ideological order, and seeks
to evolve in future. For example:
maximum destruction in terms of killing
- The use of suicide bombers greatly
and property damage.
increases the difficulty of maintaining
- Media management has always been
security.
important to terrorist organizations,
- The speed of development of bomb-
who must try to demoralize their
making technology has also accelerated
numerically-superior opponents and
markedly, largely as a result of the
convince them that they cannot win.
dissemination of both propaganda and
However, organizations like al-Qaeda
technical information over the Internet.
also want ‘spectaculars’, highly-visible
- Most cyber-weapons to date have been mass killings, partly to achieve the
developed by hackers, organized crime desired impact against the West, but
or government cyber-war agencies. also partly to ensure the continuing flow
However, it is highly likely that terrorists of funds and recruits.
will develop or contract hacking and
- Random terrorism may be specifically
cyber-war skills in future, so that they
targeted at the innocent and vulnerable,
can extract intelligence, use credit card
for two reasons. The first is that killing
fraud to raise funds, mount distributed
the innocent graphically demonstrates
denial of service attacks and so on.
the state’s failure to protect its citizens.
- Systematic terrorism is becoming less Second, it helps to create revulsion, fear
common, but has been replaced by and panic. The combination of anger,
random terrorism. Systematic terrorism revulsion, fear and despair eventually
(as practiced by ETA or the IRA) is usually obliges the state to concede some or all
focused on specific demands, and the of the demands of the terrorists.
victims have to be seen as ‘legitimate’,
i.e. members of the security forces or
‘collaborators’, although the definition of
-----
_The implications for tourism_
Tourists are both innocent and vulnerable. In quarrelling with anyone”. If, however, the
some countries, they also represent mobility, targets are US or European citizens, Jamaica
secularity, affluence and consumption, which might be chosen as the scene of the attack,
may be perceived as corrupt and immoral. rather than the primary target. It is also
The tourism industry is economically vital to important to note that Jamaica’s tourism
a number of countries, but it is also a very industry has already suffered as a result
soft target, so it offers the opportunity to of terrorism. After the 9/11 event, global
cause mass casualties and inflict extensive tourism volumes fell by 10%. Visitor arrivals
economic damage to countries that may be to some countries fell by 30%, Caribbean
seen as sympathetic to the West. As a result, arrivals fell by 15%, and Jamaica’s arrivals fell
tourists have been specifically targeted in a by 20%. The industry in Jamaica had to offer
number of instances. For example: discounts to try to restore room occupancy.
- In 1997 members of al-Gama’a al- The tourism industry has remarkable
Islamiya killed 58 tourists at Luxor. resilience, and eventually recovers. After a
Egypt’s tourism earnings fell that year major incident, however, tourism volumes
by $1.17 billion, about 25% of Egypt’s are typically depressed for one to three
revenue from the industry. years, while the countries affected may
also have to invest in additional security,
- In 2002, members of Jemaah Islamiyah
spend heavily on advertising and offer
bombed a nightclub in Bali, killing 201
steep discounts in order to rebuild their
tourists and a local. The event was
customer base.
planned to maximize civilian casualties .
The nightclub was known to cater largely Jamaica’s tourism industry now attracts
to tourists, and was targeted as a result; over 3 million arrivals. The industry
generates some 13% of Jamaica’s GDP; and
members of Jemaah Islamiyah stated in
30-40% of all employment in the country is
court that their goal was to cripple the
directly or indirectly related to tourism. Any
tourism industry. Bali’s visitor arrivals
terrorist incident that damages confidence
fell that year by 22%; some 300,000 jobs
in Jamaica’s tourism industry would
were lost.
therefore have immediate and widespread
- In June 2012, the Spozhmai Hotel
consequences to the nation; even if Jamaica
at Qargha Lake in Afghanistan was
was merely the scene of the attack.
attacked, and over a dozen guests were
killed, along with two of the hotel’s
security guards. The Taliban had earlier
complained that the hotel served
alcohol to guests and encouraged
‘immoral behaviour’.
It is important to note that the intended
targets in these first two examples were
foreign nationals, not locals. A survey of
the tourism industry in Jamaica carried out
in 2011 found that senior operatives in the
industry did not think that Jamaica was at
serious risk of terrorism because “we’re not
-----
_Possible vulnerabilities_
In October 2000, a boat packed with cruise ships sink relatively easily. The largest
explosives blew a hole in the USS Cole in cruise ships can carry over 5,000 passengers
Aden harbor, killing 17 sailors and injuring and 2,000 crew members, so the loss of a
39. This demonstrated that even a heavily- ship as a result of a terrorist incident could
built and well-armed warship can be result in more loss of life than the 9/11
seriously damaged with a small boat and incident, when 3,000 people died. Any such
some explosives, a combination that can be incident would have a long-term impact on
readily assembled by most terrorist groups. the cruise industry, as passengers would
feel very vulnerable on a ship that could be
In January 2012, a cruise ship, Costa
readily targeted in deep water.
Concordia hit a reef off the Italian coast and
partially sank, which demonstrated that
-----
###### Action Points
1 . Identify threats 3 . Training and technology
Terrorists often attack where an It is important to encourage the attack is least expected. It is therefore tourism industry to strengthen important to use horizon scan security and prepare for possible assessments to identify ‘unknown attacks. This will involve training staff unknowns’ in the threat environment, members to evacuate ships or hotels, undertake critical, independent and training ship captains in evasive reviews to probe potential weaknesses manoeuvres. Many tourism firms in existing defence systems, and use are reluctant to introduce obtrusive counter-factual reasoning in order measures, as these may deter guests, to identify vulnerabilities and their but less overt security systems can potential implications. The value of still provide effective protection. One this work is largely negated, of course, option to protect ships, for example, if it becomes public knowledge, as the is a Long Range Acoustic Device terrorists can then easily bypass these (LRAD), which prevents small boats attempts to curtail their options. from approaching ships by directing
a piercing tone in a focused beam[56].
2 . Advance intelligence
The tourism industry should be
The first line of defence is better encouraged to implement affordable, intelligence as to the nature and unobtrusive measures that make intentions of potentially hostile a terrorism incident less likely to organizations. Jamaica does not happen, and reduce the impact if one have a global network of intelligence does happen. sources, but has several allies – in
4 . Strengthen response capacity
particular the USA and UK – that do. It is important to ensure that It is important to strengthen public allied intelligence services relay any health infrastructure, with adequate information about possible threats stockpiles of medical supplies, to deal to Jamaica in a timely manner, which with the consequences of a major also means ensuring that the JCF and terrorist incident or natural disaster. JDF have the capacity to maintain the high level of security needed to protect this information while taking necessary action.
56 In November 2005 a cruise ship was attacked by pirates 100 miles off the coast of Somalia. The trained crew members used LRADs to
deter the pirates while the captain changed course and headed out to sea at full speed, thereby escaping the attack.
-----
###### II. Non-traditional threats
_Energy, non-energy resources, climate change, natural hazards and biodiversity loss_
_Energy_
Humanity depends on stable, affordable about one-third of the current population
supplies of large quantities of energy, most of still do not have adequate energy supplies.
which is currently derived from hydrocarbons. Energy demand is projected to increase by
There are now a number of pressing energy- over 50% by 2030, with about 75% of that
related challenges, including sharply rising increased demand coming from China, India
demand for oil and gas in countries such and the other new industrial powers.
as China and India, price volatility, resource
Historically, it is true that new oil has been
nationalism, increasing competition (and
discovered fast enough to keep abreast of
potential conflict) for resources, concerns
demand, but this may not be true indefinitely.
about supply constraints and the possible
This is probably not an imminent crisis, as
approach of peak supplies of conventional
the development of unconventional sources
oil, and concerns about carbon levels in the
(such as shale gas) will postpone depletion
atmosphere and climate change.
for many years, but it is important to take
Price volatility is a particular problem for a steps to mitigate the risk that energy
nation like Jamaica, which currently depends sources might become increasingly scarce
on imported oil for about 93% of its total and expensive, as that would cripple the
energy demand. Between 1999 and July Jamaican economy.
2008, the price of oil rose 15-fold, from
_Non Energy Resources_
under $10/barrel to over $147/barrel. Then
There are similar issues with non-energy
the price collapsed; oil lost nearly 80% of its
resources. World commodity prices
value. It was trading at less than $34/barrel
approximately halved over the last century,
in December 2008. Such dramatic shifts are
even though the world’s population increased
highly destabilizing; high prices increase
four-fold and global GDP increased over
costs and slow growth in importing nations,
40-fol[57]. This was because technological
while low prices reduce investment in both
advances and the development of new
oil and new energy technologies.
sources increased supply more rapidly than
Jamaica has been protected from price the increase in demand.
volatility in recent years by the Petrocaribe
However, this trend reversed in 2000. Global
arrangement with Venezuela, but
commodity prices rose sharply over the
Venezuela’s current economic difficulties
last decade, erasing the gains made over
may mean that this arrangement is not
the previous century. This was the result of
indefinitely sustainable. Termination would
several factors:
greatly increase the difficulty of managing
Jamaica’s economy, as the price of the - The world’s population is projected to
primary energy source can vary so much. increase to over 9 billion by 2050, greatly
increasing demand.
World energy demand will continue to
increase, partly because the world’s - The development of a new generation of
population is still growing, and partly because industrial nations, with resource-intensive
57 GWP was $1.1 trillion in 1900, $41 trillion in 2000, and $70.1 trillion in 2011 (in 1990 USD).
-----
industries, rapidly increasing affluence commodities, is very exposed to these trends.
and rising consumer expectations. At Although the rest of the world has become
current rates of growth, over 50% of the increasingly energy-efficient over the last
world’s population will be middle-class by three decades, Jamaica has actually become
2050, with energy and resource-intensive less energy-efficient. Jamaica’s energy
lifestyles. Most of them will live in China intensity index (EII) has increased steadily
and India. This group will be the largest over the last two decades, as Jamaica’s
consumers of energy, food, water and energy consumption has consistently grown
faster than the economy. As a result, Jamaica
other goods and services, as well as the
now requires 21,152 British Thermal Units
world’s main emitters of carbon and other
(BTU) to produce US$1 of domestic output,
forms of pollution.
compared to a global average of 4,600 BTU.
- The rate of discovery of new sources of
It is important to note the extent to which
some key commodities, such as oil, coal,
Jamaica has diverged from the rest of the
metals and minerals, has been falling
world with regard to energy efficiency. In
over the last ten years. This has pushed
1980, the global energy system was 34%
exploration into difficult terrain, which
efficient, which meant that only 1/3rd
means that the cost of extraction has
of total energy input was converted into
been rising. For example, the average cost
useful energy. The world responded to
of drilling an oil well has approximately
high-energy prices by increasing efficiency,
doubled over the last ten years (although
and today the global energy system is 39%
this trend may be reversed, as high prices
efficient. Recent estimates suggest that the
have stimulated more investment in new
current drive to greater energy efficiency
energy technologies, the development of
in buildings, transport, appliances, power
new fields and unconventional sources,
plants, transmission systems and so on
especially shale oil and gas).
could make the global energy system 50-
In conclusion, it is likely that demand for 60% efficient by 2040. Jamaica is one of the
energy and commodities will continue to rise, few countries that have been moving in the
but arable land, water, hydrocarbons and wrong direction.
various metals and minerals are finite and
The low levels of energy productivity in
will become increasingly scarce. This means
Jamaica impose multiple costs:
that commodity prices will tend to increase
over time, which could very seriously affect - They contribute to climate change, which
Jamaica’s import-dependent economy. may cause significant damage to Jamaica
in the future.
There is also an increasing risk of conflict.
There are currently about 25 wars in the - The country’s energy imports are the
world that originated in struggles to control main cause of Jamaica’s balance of
resources; there may be more such conflicts payments deficit.
in the future[xxvi]. This would have a rapid and
- High energy costs reduce the ability
significant impact on the availability and
of Jamaican firms to compete on
cost of Jamaica’s imports.
international markets.
_The implications for Jamaica_
There have been many initiatives in the past
Jamaica, as a small, open economy, to develop better energy policies in Jamaica,
dependent on imports of energy and other including the promotion of diversification,
-----
the development of renewable energy warned that the continued commissioning
sources and increased energy efficiency, but of coal, oil and gas power infrastructure will
these have failed to deliver any substantial ‘lock in’ a path of increasing greenhouse gas
improvements. There are a number of emissions for decades to come.
factors that have impeded progress,
In order to ensure that the temperature rise
including problems with governance and
remains below 2 degrees, Intergovernmental
policy conflicts, market failures and unhelpful
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates
institutional structures. Specific problems
suggest that it would be necessary for the
include an inefficient public electricity
OECD nations to peak their emissions by
system, with old generating plant; inefficient
2015/16 at the latest, and fully decarbonize
use of energy in manufacturing and other
their economies by 2030, and the non-OECD
productive sectors; inefficient energy use
nations to peak by 2025, and fully decarbonize
in the public sector, including the extensive
by 2050. This is unlikely to happen; China
use of pumps (rather than gravity feed) to
is now the world’s largest carbon emitter,
deliver the nation’s water supply; low public
and its emissions are still rising. Recent
awareness of the importance of energy
assessments indicate that China’s carbon
conservation; and inadequate policy support
emissions will not peak until 2030-2040, or
for energy conservation and efficiency.
perhaps 2050. The particular significance of
_Climate_ _change:_ _sea-level_ _rise_ _and_ this is that on business-as-usual growth
_hurricanes_ projections, China will by then be emitting
almost as much carbon (equivalent) as the
The 2012 World Bank ‘Turn Down the Heat’
USA, India and the EU combined. This is why
report concluded that the world’s average
the world temperature rise is now likely to
surface temperature is now 0.8° higher
be at least 4°C.
than the pre-industrial levels, primarily as a
result of the emission of greenhouse gases, As the oceans gradually warm as a result
and that it could be 4°C higher by 2060, of climate change, hurricanes may get
even if current United Nations Framework stronger. Emanuel (1987) suggests that
Convention on Climate Change emission wind speeds increase by about 5% for every
pledges and commitments are met in 1°C rise in tropical ocean temperatures[xxviii].
full[xxvii]. Without a major change in policy, the However, another important factor in
temperature will continue to rise; it could formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic is
be 6°C higher by 2100. This level is likely the easterly trade winds in the northern and
to trigger ecological catastrophe, as many southern hemisphere, which meet near the
parts of the world could become effectively equator. The meeting of these strong winds
uninhabitable. Southern Europe, for example, generates powerful thunderstorms, some of
may come to resemble the Libyan Desert. which may then organize into larger, unified
storm systems. However, if the winds
The main driver of climate change is the
are too strong, they can then shear these
world’s high level of dependence on fossil
systems apart again. This is one reason
hydrocarbons as fuel. This results in
why it is difficult to predict whether global
emissions of carbon dioxide, which the 2012
warming will lead to more hurricanes in
World Bank report currently estimates at
the Caribbean; warmer seas would tend to
35 billion metric tons per year, and which
encourage the early stages of development,
it projects to rise to 41 billion metric tons
but it is also possible that there will be
per year in 2020. Recent World Bank and
stronger winds that would disrupt systems
International Energy Agency reports have
-----
before they could gather strength. It is badly damaged the electricity infrastructure,
possible that a number of such factors will the agricultural sector and a significant
change at the same time, so one plausible portion of the housing stock. Hurricane Ivan
scenario is that there will be fewer but more in 2004 did significant damage, especially on
powerful storms in the Caribbean. the south coast. These events highlighted
several key weaknesses. Relief efforts
These threats are perhaps not yet
were seriously handicapped by the lack of
sufficiently apparent, because Jamaica is still
electricity in the worst-affected areas and
allowing housing, hotels, roads and other
consequent inability to operate lighting,
infrastructure to be built in areas that may
refrigeration (e.g. for medicines), water
be vulnerable, thus increasing the eventual
pumps and communication networks and
cost should these areas be lost to the sea.
so on. Electricity is never normally available
_The challenge for Jamaica_ in the critical disaster and post-disaster
periods when these facilities are most
The Government of Jamaica must ascertain
needed. These problems arise directly from
which areas of human settlement and
the centralized generation of electricity and
essential infrastructure are located in areas
the network of distribution systems. These
likely to become increasingly vulnerable to
systems, especially the distribution poles
sea level rise, increased incidence of severe
and lines, are usually physically damaged
weather, flooding and storm surge in future,
during a hurricane or similar disaster, and
and to ensure that these vital assets are
it takes time to bridge the broken sections.
either protected or relocated in order to
Some individual sites have standby
reduce the risk of future disaster. This will
generators, but most communities do not.
involve measures to enforce set-backs,
The development of decentralized sources
directing new developments out of such
of energy is therefore a vital part of disaster
areas, and amending zoning ordinances
preparedness.
and building regulations to ensure that
any permanent construction can withstand The treatment of waste is also of crucial
hurricane conditions and flooding. It is also importance. Hurricanes cause floods, which
important to ensure that reefs, sea-grass make sewers and septic tanks overflow.
and mangroves are protected, as these can This, in conjunction with the bodies of
all help to protect vulnerable coastline from drowned people and animals, can make
storm surge. the surrounding water a vector for virulent
disease, especially in tropical countries. One
This will not be a trivial exercise. A significant
partial solution to both problems would
part of the housing stock and economic and
be to ensure that all new developments
transport infrastructure is in areas that are
have secure solar-powered bio-digester
likely to become increasingly vulnerable.
tanks, partly in order to contain the sewage
Over time, zoning and planning can gradually
produced, but also to contribute to the
move people and the infrastructure into
energy supply. All such measures will have
safer areas, but this will take decades. It will
to be incorporated in zoning ordinances, and
also be necessary, therefore, to implement
building regulations.
a number of short-term measures. Many of
the necessary steps are known, as Jamaica
has already suffered a number of serious
natural disasters. Hurricane Gilbert struck
the southern coast of Jamaica in 1988 and
-----
_Conclusion_
Jamaica has to address a number of There are many ways to reduce the carbon-
environmental challenges. Energy security intensity of economies. For example, it
and climate change are particularly could involve promoting the more efficient
important. They represent profound use of conventional sources of energy,
economic, social, environmental, health including hydrocarbons, encouraging the
and governance challenges; there are few expansion of renewable sources, such as
other issues that have the same potential hydroelectricity, on and off-shore wind
to impact the viability of entire nations. Yet turbines, sub-sea turbines, photovoltaic
the situation also represents a remarkable cells and geothermal power, supporting
opportunity. Human development and the development of biofuels such as sugar
progress has largely depended, to date, and cellulosic ethanol and algal biodiesel, or
on the consumption of natural resources. accelerating the development of hydrogen
Today, technological progress is opening fuel cells and pebble-bed reactors.
up a new array of options and possible
With regard to non-energy resources,
avenues of development. The current
the solution is to encourage waste
dilemmas with energy and the environment
minimization, recycling and material
offer an opportunity to find a new basis
recovery, cleaner technology and industrial
for energy security and thereby create
symbiosis to return materials back into
the conditions for long-term, sustained
productive use. Research in this area
economic growth and social progress.
suggests that it is possible to get a four-
This requires, however, a long-term
fold increase in the efficiency with which
commitment to increase energy efficiency
resources are used[xxix]. This would make
and build new energy infrastructure,
Jamaica much more competitive, reduce
based primarily on renewable and low-
costs markedly, make the country less
carbon energy sources. Any progress in
dependent on imported resources, and
this regard is likely to generate multiple
shield the nation from high resource costs
benefits. For example:
in future.
- Increased economic efficiency means
The ideal solution for Jamaica may be
generating more economic output for
one of the technologies that is currently
less resource input, thereby increasing
in development, rather than one of the
wealth while reducing pollution.
currently-available mature technologies.
- Increased energy security means reduced However, no government can take the risk
dependence on potentially unstable or of a gap with insufficient energy supply.
manipulative regimes.
The most rational solution for dealing with
- Greater energy efficiency and such significant uncertainties is to adopt
diversification means reduced a ‘no-regrets’ strategy to reduce the risk
dependence on finite resources, such of investing in the wrong technology,
as oil. for example, then having to write-
off investments and incur significant
- Greater efficiency and the
opportunity costs. This means that it is
development of low-carbon sources
more important to focus on increasing
will reduce the rate of climate change,
energy efficiency and productivity than it is
and will also mitigate a range of other
to develop new renewable energy sources,
environmental impacts.
as current energy efficiency standards in
-----
Jamaica are so low that there is ample even if energy costs become cheaper in
scope to improve efficiency and reduce future, whether as a result of cheap shale
waste at relatively low cost. This option gas or as a result of the development of a
is likely to remain economically attractive disruptive new energy technology.
###### Action Points
It is important to improve the efficiency with which energy and resources are used in
Jamaica, and to develop new energy supplies. The priorities are to:
1. Promote greater energy efficiency, especially in buildings and the transport sector.
2. Promote the development, dissemination and uptake of renewable and low-
carbon energy technologies, especially those that would also reduce Jamaica’s
dependence on imports.
3. Promote the uptake of advanced resource management concepts, such as cleaner
technology, waste exchanges and industrial symbiosis.
_Earthquakes_
The islands of the Caribbean sit on top of The 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed
a complex set of geological faults. The some 46-92,000 people in Haiti on the
Caribbean plate sits at the junction of four 12th January 2010 happened because the
larger plates (the North American, South underlying section of the EPGF had been
American, Nazca and Cocos). In addition, locked since the last major slip in 1770, so
the area between the Caribbean and it had built up about two lateral metres of
North American plates is broken up into a unrelieved pressure. However, the section of
patchwork of small platelets, such as the the EPGF that ruptured was only 50km long,
Gonave platelet. The fault lines between all which is just 10% of the length of the EPGF,
these plates and platelets are seismically so it is likely that the sections of the fault line
active, resulting in earthquakes, tsunamis to the east and to the west are now carrying
and volcanic eruptions. even more load. The British Geological Survey
issued a preliminary assessment on the
Jamaica and Haiti sit on top of the Enriquillo
13th January 2010 that the main pressure
- Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF), which is the
on the fault line had probably now shifted to
boundary between the Caribbean plate to the
the west, and predicted another earthquake
south and the Gonave platelet to the north.
or series of earthquakes moving westward
The Caribbean plate is sliding east, while the
towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands,
Gonave platelet is sliding west, so the EPGF is
probably over the next 20 to 40 years.
a lateral (or ‘strike-slip’) fault. It accumulates
a lot of strain, which is periodically released
when sections of rock rupture.
-----
_A comparison between Haiti and Jamaica_
The death toll in Haiti was very high because - Some 4-7,000 prisoners (some extremely
a number of critical factors coincided: dangerous) escaped when the National
Penitentiary collapsed. The Haitian police
- The size of the earthquake and the fact
force had just 8,000 officers, of whom
that it was relatively near the surface,
about 12% were killed or injured, which
in proximity to a densely populated
left an approximately equal number of
area. In addition, Port–au-Prince sits
escaped prisoners and surviving police
on an alluvial plain, and soft, alluvial
officers. At one point, police officers
soils vibrate, amplify seismic waves and
were reduced to asking citizens to take
thereby subject buildings to much more
matters into their own hands and kill
shaking than they would experience on
the most dangerous criminals before
firmer ground. This is also true of parts
they could reassert control of the city.
of Jamaica. In addition, parts of Kingston
With regard to Jamaica, the Tower Street
have been built on unstable slopes.
Penitentiary might undergo structural
- Haiti is a country with weak governance
failure in a major earthquake, releasing
and high levels of crime and corruption,
the inmates.
so building codes were not enforced.
- In Haiti, the combined loss of governance,
It also has many poor people. This
control, communications and transport
combination meant that most people
made it impossible to coordinate the
lived in badly constructed buildings,
response. Management and coordination
which collapsed on top of them. As at
is absolutely critical when responding to
least 20% of the population of Jamaica
disasters, so the lack of any coherent
live in illegal settlements, there are likely
structure made all the individual efforts
to be some similar problems.
far less effective. Eventually, police,
- Haiti’s Presidential Palace, the Parliament,
marines and rescue teams arrived from
the UN Headquarters, the Tax Office
outside, and were able to start bringing
and other key government buildings
the situation under control; but this was
collapsed, effectively decapitating the
then too late to save many more lives.
government. With regard to Jamaica, a
With regard to Jamaica, however, any
number of government buildings may
loss of control is likely to be shorter and
not withstand a major earthquake.
less severe.
- In Haiti the airport, port and main roads
were all partially blocked, so these had
to be cleared before aid could be shipped
in. This too is likely to be true of Jamaica.
-----
###### Action Points
1. Ensure that Jamaica is prepared for a major earthquake or tsunami. This will involve
reviewing national planning guidelines and building codes, identifying the most
vulnerable areas, and upgrading emergency planning and disaster management.
2. Protect the core functions of government by ensuring that key Government offices,
JDF and JCF buildings, hospitals, supplies of emergency stores and communications
links are in secure buildings, designed to withstand the most severe conditions.
3. Ensure that all vital records are regularly backed up to hardened sites.
4. Ensure that all government departments are aware of the need for disaster
preparedness and emergency management.
5. Ensure that new buildings are built to withstand earthquakes, especially public
buildings such as schools, and encourage people to strengthen their own homes.
6. Establish basic earthquake education in all schools.
7. The great majority of people that are saved after an earthquake are not saved
by the specialist disaster teams, but by their neighbours. In Haiti, for example,
less than 200 people were rescued by the specialists, compared to over 7,000
that were dug out by their neighbours. People rarely survive more than 72 hours
when trapped under rubble, so the only help likely to reach most people is the
help that is already at hand. This means that Jamaica should not rely on the aid
that will come from outside after a disaster; all parishes should have disaster
specialists who can prepare, organize regular training exercises, and ensure that
essential supplies are stockpiled. Another lesson from Haiti is that these supplies
must include shovels, tents, plastic sheeting and shelter material, mosquito nets,
kitchen sets, portable toilets, hygiene and sanitation equipment, stores of food
and water, and medical supplies for dealing with crush and other trauma injuries,
respiratory disease, obstetrics, and vaccinations against infectious disease.
8. It is important to make an inventory of essential equipment and locations in
advance. This should include firms that own bulldozers and other earth-moving
equipment, so that these can be requisitioned to clear arterial routes, and firms
that own buses, which might be needed to evacuate devastated areas. It is also
important to identify areas of clear ground, such as sports fields, as these may be
needed for emergency evacuation centres, temporary hospitals and heliports.
9. Strengthen public health infrastructure, with adequate stockpiles of medical
supplies to deal with a major natural disaster or terrorist incident (including
treatments for chronic diseases, in case other supplies are temporarily disrupted).
If government agencies and local planning authorities make these preparations, and
ensure that everyone knows what to do, the death toll when the earthquake strikes
will be far smaller.
-----
_Biodiversity, environmental planning and management_
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CDB) more advanced technology can deliver a
defines biodiversity as the combination combination of economic development and
of diverse life forms and their various growth with rising environmental quality[xxxii].
interactions with each other and with the Failure in this regard is now more likely to
physical environment that has made the be the result of policy incoherence, poor
planet habitable for humans . Jamaica is a planning, regulation or enforcement, and a
signatory to the CBD. lack of awareness of available technological
solutions. Many of these problems can be
Much of Jamaica has been settled and
seen in Jamaica today. For example:
developed, but it is still biologically diverse,
with many endemic species. However, this - There is inadequate protection for
biodiversity is now threatened . Biodiversity important ecological sensitive sites,
loss makes ecosystems more vulnerable to which, in some cases, do not have
shocks and disturbances, less resilient, and clearly defined boundaries, insufficient
less able to supply humanity with services. resources to safeguard protected areas,
The damage from floods and storms, for and a lack of clarity about the procedures
example, can increase dramatically where for permitting or prohibiting some
protective wetland habitats have been lost developments.
or degraded. Jamaica needs to encourage
- There are concerns about encroachment
enterprise and stimulate economic
into wetland areas, damage to reefs,
development and growth in order to raise
deforestation, land degradation and
the average standard of living, but must
water pollution, with the associated loss
now find ways to do so that also protect and
of biodiversity, air quality in some urban
maintain its biodiversity.
areas, and serious abuses (such as large-
Early stages of economic development often scale illegal sand-mining).
coincide with a decline in environmental - Developers have complained about
quality. This can be seen clearly in countries confusing and overlapping regulations,
such as China today, where their rapid procedures and agency remits, which
economic development has resulted in an can oblige them to deal with a number
equally rapid deterioration in air and water of separate government agencies (this
quality. As a result, many people assume that is usually with larger developments).
there is an inherent trade-off, and that some This lack of clarity can give rise to policy
environmental quality must be sacrificed for conflicts, where one government agency
the sake of economic development. Public is inadvertently undoing the work of
debate can then become confrontational, another, and result in costly delays,
with environmentalists being accused of which discourages investment.
being anti-development and, by extension,
- There are a significant number of illegal
against poverty alleviation, and developers
developments, where people have
being accused of plundering the inheritance
proceeded with construction without
of future generations.
submitting any application, breaching
However, the assumption that there is an planning and building laws and, in some
inevitable trade-off between economic and cases, environmental laws as well. The
environmental goals is no longer correct; extent of the problem is hard to gauge,
it has become clear in recent years that but it is clear that a significant portion
economic restructuring, good planning of society do not believe in the planning
and regulation, better management and system, have no commitment to its
-----
purpose or appreciation of its benefits. and the illegal removal of forest cover in
Some illegal developments oblige order to produce charcoal.
respectable businesses to compete
There have been a number of attempts to
against less scrupulous rivals (who may
resolve these issues, but these have had
be reducing their costs by evading taxes
limited success, and many of the problems still
and regulation) and fosters a culture of
remain. The environment is not being properly
non-compliance, where illegal behaviour
valued or adequately protected, potential risks
is seen as normal and advantageous.
to human health are not sufficiently taken into
- There is relatively little public awareness account, development is delayed, investment
of the real cost of inadequate is lost and officials are left unsupported.
enforcement. For example, failure to Some of these problems stem from defects
control over-fishing has been one of the in the regulatory system, others stem from
main factors contributing to the death gaps in the planning system. It is clearly in
of the coral reefs , which has in turn the national interest that these problems
both contributed to beach erosion and are properly resolved, as that will eliminate a
seriously reduced the potential economic number of costs and risks.
contribution of the fishing industry,
More effective regulation would also
while failure to adequately enforce air
allow the development of other business
quality standards has contributed to
opportunities in Jamaica. For example,
the rise in asthma and other respiratory
attempts to establish metal recycling
disease. Thus inadequate environmental
businesses in Jamaica had to be curtailed,
enforcement incurs substantial health,
because the lack of proper regulation
social and economic costs.
encouraged a rapid increase in the theft of
- Other important environmental metal items. Effective regulation, with proper
problems include the entry or illegal monitoring and sanctions, would allow a
importation of invasive alien species, legitimate business sector to develop.
###### Action Points
_1 . Reform Jamaica’s Planning and Regulatory Systems_
Establish regulations that will promote sustainable development with a combination
of economic development and growth, rising incomes, high environmental
standards, strong protection for important ecosystems, good management of
natural resources and an improved quality of life.
_2 . Develop a goal-oriented planning model_
Set policy goals for energy-efficient cities including water and resource
management, waste minimization and materials recovery, buildings; and transport
systems. Have a reducing rate for environmental damage with remediation and
enhancement. Set standards for greater resilience and reduced vulnerability to
storm surge, flood, earthquake. Establish policies for urban systems that contribute
to social well-being and that help to reduce conflict and crime.
_3 . Develop a national spatial plan_
Goal-oriented planning supported with a national spatial plan and effective
enforcement.
-----
## Addressing Tier 3 Threats Persistent Problems
1. Public debt.
2. The possible loss of credibility with key international partners.
3. Poverty and unemployment
4. Education and Training
5. Deported Persons
6. Informal settlements
_Tier 3 Threats_
Tier 3 threats are _high probability, low_ low levels of educational achievement can
_impact events . Some of them are problems_ leave communities marginalized, vulnerable
that Jamaica has had for some time, so to extortion and dependent on political
they are not always perceived as high risk. patronage, which fosters fatalism and low
Note, however, that threats of this kind can self-esteem. This can result in high levels
impose a high hidden cost. For example, of aggression and physical and sexual
Jamaica might fail to implement agreements abuse. Weak family structures mean that
with international development partners or many children do not receive an adequate
strategic allies. This would gradually erode education, and are not socialized into
Jamaica’s credibility. However, the cost patterns of work. Some communities are
of this lost credibility might not become in unplanned, informal settlements, and do
visible unless there was a crisis that obliged not have proper services, so refuse is burnt
Jamaica to appeal for assistance. At that and sewage contaminates ground water,
stage, it might then become apparent that which is hazardous to health, safety and the
the support for Jamaica had been weakened, environment. Borrowed capital is expensive,
and that less favourable terms would and many residents do not have land titles or
be offered or more stringent conditions collateral, small local businesses have little
imposed as a result. turnover and are sometimes weakened by
extortion, internal levels of economic activity
Poverty is another example of a problem
remain low and little wealth is created. Most
that can have high hidden costs. Jamaica
employers and investors avoid these areas.
has had a relatively high level of poverty
These compounded problems therefore
for a long time, so it might not appear that
become increasingly intractable, and this
poverty itself presents a direct threat to
perpetuates poverty, in a vicious spiral of
society. However, poverty overlaps with
decline. It may not appear, therefore, that
clusters of negative social and economic
poverty itself is a major risk, but entrenched
factors which can then interlock and become
poverty makes it much easier for gangs
mutually-reinforcing. For example, many of
to recruit, dominate areas, intimidate
the inhabitants in poor areas can be trapped
communities and extort vulnerable people.
in unemployment or marginal, low-waged
jobs by a lack of marketable qualifications It is also important to note that social
and skills. Bad housing, limited access to systems can behave in a non-linear manner.
amenities, poorly-performing schools and As the Arab Spring uprisings demonstrated
-----
in 2011, a situation may appear stable for indebtedness also presents a significant
many years, but then a single incident threat to national security. The quotes
can spur an uprising that overturns the below illustrate this point[xxxiiixxxivxxxv].
established order. Tier 3 problems should
Both the JDF and the JCF have received
not be neglected.
significant financial and technical assistance
_Public debt_ from allies, mainly the USA, UK, Canada
Jamaica is one of the most indebted and the EU and Jamaica is now receiving
countries in the world, and government assistance from China. However, the
expenditure commitments regularly exceed support of traditional allies cannot be taken
annual revenues. Jamaica’s public debt at for granted, partly because they too have
December 2011 was US$18.7 billion, while economic problems, and partly because the
GDP was US$14.7 billion, so Jamaica’s strategic focus of the USA is now shifting
debt was 127% of GDP. This high level of from the Atlantic to the Pacific theatre.
###### “The most significant threat to our national security is our debt .”
_US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen, 27th August 2010_
###### “The single biggest strategic risk facing the UK today is economic rather than military . The country’s main effort must be the economy . No country can defend itself if bankrupt”
_General Sir David Richard, Chief of the Defence Staff, 14th December 2011_
###### “Without strong economies and stable public finances it is impossible to build and sustain, in the long-term, the military capability required to project power and maintain defence . That is why today the debt crisis should be considered the greatest strategic threat to the future security of our nations .”
_UK Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, 5th January 2012_
###### Action Points
_1 . Improve efficiency of public sector systems_
Accelerate the modernisation of government commercial activities towards
e-government systems.
This transformation will lower the cost and also time delays when doing
business with public sector agencies.
_2 . Harness HR in public sector for knowledge management_
Adopt strategies that will transform public sector workers away from mechanical
tasks and into more knowledge-based activities.
-----
_Jamaica’s credibility_
There are a number of areas where the a reputation as a trusted, reliable partner.
support of international partners is likely This does not mean pretending that Jamaica
to be increasingly important in the future, does not have problems; it means discussing
including government borrowing, trade these problems with honesty and clarity,
facilitation and cooperation on policing accepting responsibility where appropriate,
and intelligence. In order to ensure this and then addressing these problems in a
support, it is important that Jamaica builds resolute manner.
###### Action Points
1. The emphasis should now be on cooperation on policing and intelligence, trade
facilitation, especially with regard to e-commerce, on-line services, tourism and
high-value niche products, the development of e-government, and increasing
human capital and skills in the workforce.
2. There should also be planning and regulatory reform to prevent environmental
degradation, control depletion of natural resources and reduce exposure to
natural hazards, in conjunction with regional risk-pooling to manage the cost of
earthquakes and hurricanes.
These steps would strengthen Jamaica’s credibility with key international
partners. They will also help Jamaica to achieve investment-grade status, attract
foreign investment and retain human capital, which will strengthen and diversify
Jamaica’s economy, and thereby help to buffer the country against any future
global economic recession.
_Poverty and unemployment_
As noted earlier, crime and corruption have the main recruits for gangs, and account
undermined Jamaica’s development and for much of the anti-social behaviour,
perpetuated poverty. As a result, there including violent crime[xxxviii]. In the event of a
are now many untrained, poorly educated prolonged recession, disaffected youth are
and unqualified people in Jamaica who more likely to participate in civil unrest. This
are effectively unemployable in the formal is, therefore, a serious potential threat to
economy. About half of the total population national security.
aged 15-29 is not in the workforce, and
However, a more positive way to see this
many of those that are employed have jobs
is that the size of the workforce in Jamaica
that are unskilled or semi-skilled, pay low
could be expanded by almost one-third
wages, often require working irregular hours,
if the unemployed could be brought in to
with no career structure, no job security,
the productive workforce. This would have
and no housing, medical, pension or other
a dramatic impact in terms of increasing
benefits[xxxvii].
productivity and strengthening the economy,
This means that there is a large reserve as well as reducing recruitment into gangs.
of disaffected, poorly-educated, unskilled So many of the actions that are needed to
and unqualified youth in Jamaica. They are reduce the risks to Jamaica’s national security
-----
are the same actions needed to address - The process of continuous innovation
Jamaica’s social and economic problems. and modernization is replacing manual
labour with automated processes. In
There are only two ways that an economy can
the UK, for example, the automobile
grow. One way is to increase the size of the
manufacturing sector now produces a
workforce. The other is to make each worker
greater volume of cars with about one-
more productive. Jamaica can do both:
fifth of the workforce that was required
1. Increasing the workforce does not require
30 years ago. This means that many
increasing the population. It can be done
semi-skilled jobs have been automated
by moving the people from the informal
out of existence.
economy into the formal sector, via
- Innovative ideas and technologies
robust training programs aimed mainly
create new opportunities, demands and
at the unskilled. There are many young
people that could become economically markets, but simultaneously render old
active, which would increase the size of technologies obsolete and the associated
Jamaica’s workforce by about one-third. skills redundant. So the status quo is
constantly disrupted by innovations that
2. Making the workforce more productive
restructure the competitive environment.
usually involves making better use of
The accelerating pace of innovation is
technology, removing the impediments to
forcing a similar acceleration in the rate
progress, such as slow and bureaucratic
of change in the market for employment
government processes[58],[xxxix],[xl],[xli] and
and skills.
training programs aimed at enhancing
- From the mid-1980s onwards,
skills.
predominantly low-skilled jobs were
3. The long-term solution is to provide the
transferred to Asia, but now countries
kind of training opportunities that will
like China, India, Brazil, Malaysia and
lead to genuine economic development
Taiwan are highly competitive in services
and growth. Every training program
and high-skill manufacturing sectors.
should have a clear strategic focus.
This is now putting the last-generation
There is little point in training people to
manufacturing economies under pressure
work in dying industries. So the focus
to reduce costs and to move into higher-
has to be on increasing the supply of
value, higher-skilled operations.
trained, skilled labour in the ‘sunrise’
This means that it will be difficult to find
business areas that could transform
employment opportunities for the unskilled
Jamaica’s productivity and prospects. It
and semi-skilled workforce in Jamaica, and
is therefore necessary to develop a clear
even more so for those that are not even
strategic vision of where the growth
in the workforce, unless there are significant
opportunities will be in future.
reforms in Jamaica’s systems of education
This is challenging, because the world labour and training.
market is undergoing several structural shifts:
58 These vary significantly between countries, and are one of the main determinants of national competitiveness. For example, opening a
business in New Zealand requires one procedure, which costs 0.4% of average income, and takes one day, so New Zealand is ranked 3rd
in the world for ease of doing business. In Suriname it requires 13 separate procedures, which costs 115% of average income, and takes
694 days, so Suriname is ranked 164th in the world. Jamaica was ranked 85th in the world in 2012, but fell to 90th in the world in 2013
as more countries introduced reforms and improved their competitiveness, again illustrating the point that any country that is slow to
improve will be left behind.
-----
###### Action Points
1. Increase the size of the workforce.
2. Make the workforce more productive.
3. Develop a clear strategic vision of where the growth opportunities will be in
the future.
_The role of education and training_
These profound transformations in the The evidence suggests, rather, that education
nature of work and employment make is demand-pulled by economic development.
it important to reconsider the role of As economies strengthen and diversify,
educational and training institutions in they assume the inverted pyramid shape
national development; traditional ‘supply- of a mature economy (in which the service
push’ models of the role of educational sector grows faster than manufacturing, or
systems in developing countries have largely mining and agriculture). This increases the
ignored both this larger economic context demand for more specialized skills, which
and the need to foster innovative capacity. expands the range of opportunities and the
demand for education. The development of
Educational and training systems have a
India’s ICT industry, for example, was made
crucially important role to play in supporting
possible by the availability of a large number
and enabling a transition to a skills-based
of underemployed mathematics graduates,
economy. They cannot, however, drive
but these graduates would probably have
this process. The distinction becomes clear
remained underemployed had it not been
when considering the failure of traditional
for the Indian Diaspora in California, who
strategies for education and training,
provided the link to markets, ideas and
which have tended to focus on increasing
business opportunities that demand-pulled
the supply of skilled and educated people
subsequent developments, as well as the
into the workforce. There is little evidence,
investment capital and technology-transfer
however, that the process of economic
that triggered and accelerated the rapid
development can be directly supply-pushed
growth of the last 25 years.
by education and training. For example, an
oversupply of over-qualified graduates in an
economic recession can lead, instead, to a
situation where many university graduates
are unemployed or underemployed, and
consequently disaffected, or emigrate in
search of better opportunities overseas.
-----
###### Action Points
1. The resources for education (above primary level), adult education and training
in Jamaica should be focused on areas where there is potential demand-pull, i.e.
areas where there are more likely to be growth opportunities in future.
2. It is also essential to improve teaching standards in schools. A truancy service
should be introduced, so that school officials are mandated to find out what
has happened to absentees, and a universal system of home-school contracts
should be established[59].
3. Over the longer term, it is difficult to predict the exact jobs that will be most
in demand, but it is possible to identify the kind of skills that are likely to be
required . These include social networking skills (team-builders, managers and
leaders), creative skills (designers, visionaries and conceptualizers), technical
skills (scientists, engineers and technicians), logistical skills (organizers, project
aggregators and coordinators, open-source project managers, logistics and
supply-chain strategists and managers), thinking skills (critical thinkers, problem-
solvers, policy analysts and business strategists), entrepreneurial skills (people
who can network between different networks, e.g. scientists, financiers, and the
businesses that control the manufacturing, supply and distribution networks)
and generic skills (e.g. people who are ICT-fluent, can multi-task, network, and
have high emotional intelligence). Educational and training programs in Jamaica
should emphasize these skills, as that would allow them to make a stronger
contribution to national development.
4. It is important to draw on the talents, resources and contacts of the Jamaican
Diaspora. They can provide the links to markets, ideas and business opportunities
that will demand-pull business development in Jamaica.
5. The proposed development of a Logistics Hub in Jamaica will create many direct
and indirect employment opportunities for those with the relevant skills, so it
is important to utilize the opportunity by establishing the necessary training
programs before the Logistics Hub becomes fully operational. This could be
supplemented with targeted support for entrepreneurs, especially in low-income
areas, to encourage community regeneration.
6. Agriculture remains a key source of employment in rural areas, but subsistence
farmers must be given targeted training and support to enable them to increase
their productivity and move into higher-value forms of production.
59 This is a contract explaining the school discipline and rules. Parents must sign this document and agree that they accept the school’s
rules, that they are responsible for their child’s attendance and behavior, and must respect the discipline methods used in the school. This
system is now widely used in the US and UK. It gives parents a formal, binding obligation to ensure that their child reaches the school and
remains there until the end of the school day.
-----
_Deported persons_
There have been several high profile visa limit, non-reporting green card holders
deportations to Jamaica, including senior and out-of-status students, and those
gang members. This created a public convicted of minor crimes, most commonly
perception that many of Jamaica’s problems possession of marijuana or cocaine, but
with crime and violence could be attributed also including shoplifting, petty theft, drunk
to deported persons. driving, obstruction of justice, and unpaid
traffic fines. More than half of them were
Some of the people deported to Jamaica
deported after their first offence.
are indeed dangerous criminals, and the JCF
are usually given prior notification of their This indicates that some deported persons
arrival. Common reasons for deportation are dangerous, but that most of them are
include convictions for possession of drugs, relatively minor criminals or classed as
illegal possession of firearms, homicide and illegal aliens. However, many of them have
violent crime. Statistical analysis by Headley difficulty in finding employment in Jamaica
(2006) suggested, however, that the largest after it becomes known that they are
single group of deportees consisted of deportees, which means that some of them
people returned to Jamaica for infractions subsequently do get involved in criminal
of the U.S. Illegal Immigration Reform and activity. This indicates that programs to
Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996. This rehabilitate and assimilate deportees would
included those who had overstayed their significantly reduce any impact on Jamaica.
###### Action Points
1. It is important to distinguish between serious criminals and persons deported
for visa violations or petty crimes. With regard to serious criminals, it is
critical to maintain and improve communications between law enforcement
agencies in the deporting countries and the authorities in Jamaica, so that
serious criminals can be put under surveillance, if necessary, in case they try
to re-establish their criminal connections or regain control over their former
community in Jamaica. It may be necessary to require them to report on
a daily basis to a designated police station. It may also be necessary to
consider the introduction of electronic tagging.
2. With regard to those deported for visa violations or petty crimes, it is
important to encourage their assimilation back into society, as that will
reduce the risk that they will get involved in criminal activity in Jamaica.
This should include establishing a short-stay hostel for those who arrive
without friends or financial resources, and giving them access to HEART/
NTA training courses.
-----
_Informal settlements_
The problems with gangs are exacerbated However, people have built lives in these
by the existence of informal (‘squatter’) areas; children have been born in these
communities, as some of them have become communities, and it is important not to
gang-dominated enclaves. At least 20% of penalize the innocent. Some of these
the population of Jamaica lives in unplanned settlements are unsafe, while others impede
settlements. A 2008 assessment undertaken development, and must now be cleared, but
by the Ministry of Water and Housing this can be done over time.
identified a total of 754 settlements[xliv],[xlv];
The first step is to prevent any further
some small (less than ten households),
illegal land settlements. This will require
others large (over 2,000 households). Some
the creation of a strong planning authority
were built on ‘captured’ land (land belonging
and environmental protection agency, both
to a private individual or the state), while
of which must have significant autonomy
some were encouraged in order to make
and adequate protection from inappropriate
parliamentary constituencies into political
political pressure[60]. In the long term, the
strongholds.
solution must also include identifying
All of these communities are unplanned, most suitable sites and building more houses,
are illegal, some of them were built in areas which will require a multi-agency approach
that present a threat to the health and safety and collaboration with the private sector.
of the residents or their neighbours (such as However, there is also a clear need to deal
unstable slopes, gully banks or watersheds), with the current problems. There are a wide
and a few have become centres of gang variety of informal settlements, and some
activity. The problems with gangs in Jamaica present more problems than others, so a
cannot be resolved without finding a solution three-tier approach is required.
to the problem of informal settlements.
###### Action Points
1. If a settlement is unsafe (e.g. on an unstable slope or land prone to flooding),
the occupants must be moved as soon as possible.
2. If a settlement is safe, but on land that is needed for legitimate purposes,
the occupants must still be moved to other locations, but this can be done
over a longer period of time (depending on when the land is needed).
3. If a settlement is in a safe location, in relatively good condition, and on land
that is not needed for other purposes, it should be considered for upgrading
and regularizing.
60 These reforms were proposed in the Government Green Paper on the Establishment of an Environmental Regulatory Authority (2010).
-----
## Addressing Tier 4 Threats Possible risks that require monitoring
Tier 4 threats are low probability, low impact threats. They are still potential threats, but they
are less likely to have a serious impact within the immediate future, and these impacts can
probably be contained. With regard to food security, Jamaica is heavily dependent on imported
food supplies, but has substantial reserves of under-utilized land with agricultural potential,
so it would be possible to increase local food production in the event of global shortages or
disruptions in the supply chain. With regard to water security, the problem is not shortage of
supply, but the contamination of the existing resources, so better management could resolve
this problem. It is important to note, however, that Tier 4 threats require monitoring, in case
circumstances change, and there is a need to reclassify them as higher priority threats.
The Tier 4 threats to Jamaica are:
- Food security
- Water security
_Food security_
World food prices rose rapidly from 2005 to already consume over half of the global
2008. The price of wheat and corn more than supply of coal, iron ore, steel and other
doubled while the price of rice nearly tripled. commodities. So the development of
In mid-2008 food prices started to fall again these countries has profound, long-term
as a result of the global recession. The implications for all commodity prices,
number of malnourished people continued including food.
to rise, however, as average incomes fell
- The increase in global population; by
faster than food prices, making food less
2050 there will be over 2 billion more
affordable even as it became cheaper. High
consumers of food, energy and other
food prices caused riots in 34 countries in
resources.
2007-8.
- The development of first-generation
Jamaica is a net importer of food. There is
biofuels, as the USA started converting
an important question, therefore, as to the
corn into ethanol.
extent to which high food prices or high
volatility might impact Jamaica in future. The first three factors are all long-term,
which means that they will continue to
The main reason why food prices rose so
affect world food prices. In particular, the
rapidly from 2005 to 2008 is that a number
projected increase in human population
of significant factors coincided. Some of the
to over 9 billion by 2050, coupled with
important structural factors were as follows:
changes in dietary preferences, means that
- Changing dietary preferences. People it will be necessary to approximately double
now eat more meat and dairy products. agricultural production[xlvi]; and the move to
replace fossil hydrocarbons with bio-fuels
- Increasing consumption. China and India
will create more pressure on available land.
-----
Climate change may also affect food prices in restrictive. The 2008 food crisis was not
future, but the pattern is less clear. Climate caused by a shortage of food; it was a crisis
change may increase output in the northern of access and affordability. The solution,
hemisphere, and reduce it in tropical and therefore, does not lie in a retreat behind
sub-tropical regions[xlvii]. If so, food-exporting protectionist barriers, but in technological
countries will benefit from higher prices, while progress, trade liberalization to reduce the
countries where the poor subsist largely on barriers to trade, transport and commerce in
local crops will be relatively unaffected, but order to allow markets to operate efficiently
middle-income, food-importing nations like and match food demand with supply, phasing
Jamaica will be vulnerable. It is therefore out of subsidies and other trade-distorting
possible that periods of high food prices will measures, and major reforms of agricultural,
be more frequent in future. trade and land-use policies to allow farmers
to respond to market demand. This is the
It is important to note that agricultural
best way to ensure that there is an adequate
production is strongly affected by many
supply of affordable food available at all
factors, including changing demand,
times in Jamaica.
technological innovation and modernization,
and policies on trade, whether liberal or
###### Action Points
_1 . Develop technology_
It is important to accelerate the development and adoption of particular
technologies so that greater volumes of output of food, fibre and fuel can be
generated in smaller areas. This includes:
a) Genetically modified plants and animals. For example, taking the gene that
gives legumes the ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen and transplanting it to
other crops would greatly reduce the need for fertilizer, and would also reduce
water pollution from fertilizer run-off.
b) Production in environments where evaporation and pests can be more easily
controlled (such as polytunnels and hydroponics).
c) Aquaculture; using fish modified to thrive in intensive conditions.
_2 . Develop new market opportunities_
a) The global trends listed above will also create new market opportunities. For
example, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are already the primary causes
of premature death, and the incidence will rise in future as the many countries
now have aging populations .
b) This has already created a new market for plant-derived micro-nutrients to
reduce the impact of age-related degenerative disease; some of these could be
supplied from Jamaica. There is also a growing market for biological feedstock
for manufacturing eco-composites and other new industrial crops.
-----
###### Action Points continued
_3 . Biofuels_
a) First and second-generation biofuels have limited potential in Jamaica, due
to lack of scale. Third and fourth-generation biofuels (e.g. algae and synthetic
genomics) are still in development, but may eventually provide the basis for
energy independence.
_4 . Improve food security_
Agriculture in Jamaica is not currently focused on ensuring food security. Until
relatively recently, sugar cane accounted for about 30% of all agricultural land
in Jamaica, and about 40% of all permanent crop land. Forestry Department
estimates suggest that there are 90,000 hectares of idle private lands and over
200,000 hectares of land not currently intensively utilized for agriculture. This
gives a total of 359,244 hectares of land that could be better utilized, for food,
forestry, biomass, or for some other higher-value form of production . This would
help to improve Jamaica’s food security, reduce imports and increase exports,
retain more capital in Jamaica and strengthen the economy.
_Water security_
Current projections indicate that over half - Agriculture accounts for 80% of water
of the world’s population will suffer from use in Jamaica, but less than 5% of its
acute water shortages by 2050. This is likely GDP. When there is water shortage, it
to result in mass migrations of people away is usually the domestic consumer that
from increasingly arid areas, which is likely is temporarily disconnected. It would be
to lead to conflict over the remaining water more rational and efficient to encourage
resources. better water management practices in
agriculture.
Jamaica is currently using 35% of its available
water supply, so still has adequate reserves. - The current distribution policy is
About 62% of the water supplied by the exceptionally energy-intensive, as water
National Water Commission is ground water. is pumped uphill to many consumers.
The main problems are not the lack of water,
There is little risk of Jamaica experiencing
but contamination and inefficient usage:
absolute shortages of water, but there
- The most common problems with ground are serious issues with water pollution,
water are excess nitrate, sodium and especially surface water (which have
chloride. With surface water there are high negative implications for public health, the
levels of coliform, from faecal pollution, and environment and the economy), and with the
organic pollution from agro-processing energy cost of the current distribution policy.
and sewage. These contaminants also
impact Jamaica’s coral reefs, which play an
important role in protecting the beaches.
The beaches are, in turn, essential to
Jamaica’s tourist industry.
-----
###### Action Points
The main problem with regard to Jamaica’s water security is not insufficient supply,
but contamination of existing resources, and a distribution policy that is exceptionally
energy-intensive. The most important steps to improve Jamaica’s water security are
as follows:
1. Improving sewage disposal systems, so that surface and ground water are
not contaminated.
2. Agricultural extension programs to encourage the safe use and disposal of
agrochemicals. Burial (preferably in designated sites) is usually a much better
option than surface disposal.
3. An agricultural extension program to encourage more efficient irrigation.
4. The development of more local water supplies to reduce the need to pump
water uphill.
-----
## Coordinating and Monitoring Mechanisms
- Conceptual Framework
- National Security Policy Coordination Unit (NSPCU)
- Specific Mechanisms
- Coordination of Intelligence
- Enhancing Programmes to Promote Community Safety and Security
- National Strategic Communications Programme
- The Public’s Involvement in Implementing the National Security Policy (NSP)
- Funding Priorities
_Conceptual Framework_
The policy direction and actions articulated crime that has crippled Jamaica requires a
in this policy paper are intended to protect ‘whole-of-government’ approach. National
the people of Jamaica, and significantly security is not the sole province of the
reduce the level of crime and violence and portfolio Ministry; other key Ministries and
the associated fear and insecurity. Jamaica Government agencies, such as the Ministries
has become one of the most violent societies of Finance and Justice, also have an essential
in the world; bold, transformative action is role to play.
required in order to resolve the underlying
The existing mechanisms for coordinating
causes.
government priorities have been examined,
The analysis identified many existing and it was determined that the National
capabilities and initiatives that are already Security Council (NSC), chaired by the
at various stages of implementation; Prime Minister, was the best suited and
these provide an excellent base on which will continue to own the responsibility for
to construct a better future for Jamaica. the implementation of the NSP. The NSC
However, the transformation that we need will undertake formal biennial review of
cannot result from a ‘business as usual’ the National Security Policy and update as
approach. Many laudable actions are being necessary to reflect changes in the threat
undertaken by Ministries of Government, environment.
private sector groups, churches, NGOs,
This role requires that the NSC include
academia and the rest of civil society, but
the Ministers holding responsibility for
none can be effective in isolation. There
finance, foreign affairs and legal affairs.
has to be unity of purpose, mutual support,
The mandate will necessitate a schedule of
continuous reinforcing, an injection of fresh
regular meetings, with specific agenda items
energy and, where necessary, an injection of
relating directly to the implementation and
capital to close any capabilities gap.
monitoring of the NSP. The NSC will report
The unity of effort, in particular, has to be to the Cabinet, and the Cabinet to the
sustained if there is to be a real and lasting Parliament.
transformation. The fight against the
-----
_National Security Policy Coordination_
The National Security Policy Coordination include confirming, where necessary,
Unit (NSPCU) was established in the Cabinet that the required structures, policies,
Office in 2007. It is mandated to co-ordinate infrastructure, personnel and equipment
the implementation of the National Security are in place.
Policy. The unit will continue to undertake
- Evaluating the implementation of the
the day-to-day coordination and monitoring
NSP. The NSPCU will verify that the
of implementation, in addition to driving the
actions being carried out remain on track
transformation process on behalf of the
to meet the Strategic Security Goals and
NSC. The coordinator of the NSPCU will be
Objectives. Indicators of Progress will be
given equivalent ranking to a Permanent
developed, as necessary. This will include
Secretary, and be accountable to the NSC.
sector performance targets.
The unit currently consists of five approved
positions, including the executive director, - Regularly reporting on the progress of
two research and evaluation analysts, the implementation process to the NSC.
a communication specialist, and an The NSPCU will also do some measure
administrator. of trouble shooting and keep the NSC
regularly informed on progress and any
The functions to be performed by the NSPCU
challenges encountered.
include:
- Resolving conflicts that arise during
- Convening of joint meetings to confirm
the course of implementation as
responsibilities, actions and timelines as
Departments and agencies seek to
required by the NSP.
coordinate their actions.
- Developing a full process-monitoring
- The coordination of actions as directed
mechanism to allow for the ready
by the NSC.
identification of actions required
responsibilities and the meeting of - Continuous review of the National
deadlines by relevant organizations. Security Policy, and annual report to the
NSC.
- Monitoring the progress of
implementation actions. This will
_Specific Mechanisms_
Specific mechanisms to facilitate the - Formalization of written reporting
effective functioning of the NSPCU will systems, visits and consultations.
include:
- Special meetings with key stakeholders,
- Establishment of Joint Committees as necessary.
at the levels of Relevant Permanent
The head of the NSPCU (Coordinator), who
Secretaries; Heads of Departments and
will also function as Secretary to the NSC,
Agencies; Relevant Local Government will report ultimately to the Prime Minister,
authorities; Civil Society Groups; and but routinely to the Cabinet Secretary. His/
Regional and International Partners. her main functions would include:
- Establishment of agreed standards,
- Providing direction and control of the
procedures and indicators of progress.
NSPCU.
-----
- Scheduling and preparing for NSC - Ensuring that the NSS is implemented
meetings, and follow-up actions. across Government on behalf of the NSC.
- Preparing regular updates and reports.
- Coordinating NSS implementation
meetings.
Coordination of Intelligence
The National Security Advisor (NSA) will Office as the head of the NSC permanent
oversee the establishment of the new staff, and he/she will provide progress
National Intelligence Agency (NIA) for reports on strategic security initiatives,
strategic purposes and will also coordinate advice on current major national security
the existing operational intelligence bodies developments, and the impact of regional
through the use of agreed protocols. In and international security concerns on
the medium to long term, the position of Jamaica.
the NSA will be established at the Cabinet
_Enhancing Programmes to Promote Community Safety and Security_
A policy framework for action on revitalising enhanced and additional resources provided.
community security, social inclusion and
Parish level and Community Safety and
the social contract is to be approved by
Security Groups, which have begun to be
government. The Development Division
established, are to be linked in a network
(Cabinet Office) has the mandate to
extending across the island, community
coordinate the initiatives and programmes,
by community through a steady process
which will fall within the ambit of the
of expansion. These volunteer groups
social intervention, given the existence
will harness the inputs of community
of an adequately stable environment. In
representatives, businesses, youth,
communities which pose high risk for the
emergency services, service clubs, and
social agencies of the state, the Ministry
the local authorities. The Ministry of
of National Security will use appropriate
National Security will coordinate this social
means to provide a secure environment for
movement and will embrace legitimate
the regular delivery/provision of essential
community based organizations. MNS will,
public services such as policing, solid waste
within available resources, provide critical
management, public lighting and sewerage
support to assist groups to achieve safety
disposal. When conditions for stability have
and security goals agreed by the community
been set, the Development Division will
that are in harmony with the priorities of
exercise its mandate on the ground. The
national security policy.
profile of the Development Division is to be
_Strategic Communications Programme to support the NSP_
The NSP benefits from the views and of Jamaica. In order to successfully enact
experiences of a wide cross section of public the policy, the NSPCU will develop annual
sector, private sector and international plans of communication activities that will
collaborators who are involved with the include face-to-face engagements; seminars
survival, security and protection of the citizens and other information-driven events; and
-----
convey messages across appropriate media The core of the strategic communications will
platforms. be to ensure that the objectives of the NSP
are supported by persons who will implement
In informing, explaining and discussing the
the programmes across all the subject areas
NSP, the NSPCU will be open, transparent
that are relevant to national security.
and responsive governance in its activities.
_The Public’s Involvement in Implementing the NSP_
In keeping with the initiative to develop a Services who, along with the Police and the
stronger partnership between citizens, civil JDF, play a critical role in public safety and
society and all Government organizations security. An integrated approach, with proper
involved in delivering security services, it is codes of practice, is needed to structure
important for all members of the public to these partnerships. These bodies/councils
understand the critical role that they are should have mandatory meetings, open to
required to play in helping to make Jamaica a members of the public, where citizens can
more and safe secure place to live and visit. voice their concerns, question the police
Generally, public interpretation of policing and the other agencies, and give feedback
tends to be narrowly confined to the role on the performance of the police and other
In keeping with the initiative to develop a protective agencies.
stronger partnership between citizens, civil
The bodies/councils to be established
society and all Government organizations
should, therefore, serve as a forum where
involved in delivering security services, it is
local policing issues can be identified, which
important for all members of the public to
will help the local police to establish agreed
understand the critical role that they are
policing priorities. The bodies/councils
required to play in helping to make Jamaica a
should also have an advisory, monitoring
more and safe secure place to live and visit.
and evaluating role on security and safety
Generally, public interpretation of policing
matters. This will provide a strong platform for
tends to be narrowly confined to the role
community policing, and further strengthen
of the JCF. It is not universally recognized
the partnership between the JCF and the
that there are other government bodies
communities. These partnerships will also
with functions and powers that when not
strengthen democratic police accountability,
effectively discharged lead to disorder and
and give the police a way to become more
thereby foster criminal activity. It is essential
directly responsive to the concerns of the
to encourage greater public involvement and
citizens. This will, in turn, make it easier to
commitment in supporting all aspects of law
get public cooperation in dealing with crime
enforcement and the activities needed to
and disorder.
build a decent and law-abiding society.
Public participation and partnership with the
police needs a structured medium if it is to
work effectively. This requires that relevant
bodies/councils be established, with set
criteria for their composition, function and
performance. In every parish of the island
there are significant stakeholders such
as the Fire Brigade, the NWA, and Health
-----
_Funding Priorities_
Jamaica’s current high rates of crime and of resources on the part of the security
corruption are the single most effective forces will also generate major cash savings.
impediment to the development of the nation. Development of detailed security related
A fight against crime is a fight for development; budgets is beyond the scope of this policy
measures to reduce the social and economic document, but the MDAs will be required
damage caused by pervasive crime have to to complete that exercise are part of their
be integral to the developmental activities security mandates.
of the state. Security should therefore be
Areas to receive immediate priority for
seen as both a core developmental goal and
resource allocation include the six key steps
an essential precondition for the delivery of
needed to address the Tier 1 threats outlined in
other developmental goals. National security
the NSP, along with the provision of resources
is therefore the highest priority. Resources
to continue the on-going modernization of
are limited, but the Government will assign
key security organizations and all elements
the resources needed to effect a significant
of the Criminal Justice System. This will
and permanent improvement in the safety of
now include the establishment of a National
all Jamaicans.
Intelligence Agency, the provision of modern
Once the environment has become safer forensic equipment and the maintenance of
and more stable, there can be a strategic a viable capability to provide for sustained,
reallocation of financial resources, consistent effective surveillance and monitoring of
with the improving security environment. Jamaica’s maritime borders.
A more careful and efficient management
-----
|Col1|Ministries, Depart|
|---|---|
|CPC|Corruption Prevention Commission|
|DPP|Director of Public Prosecution|
|FID|Financial Investigations Division|
|FLA|Firearm Licensing Authority|
|IC|Integrity Commission|
|Inter- Ministerial|Inter-Ministerial Committee on Community Safety and Renewal|
|JCF|Jamaica Constabulay Force|
|JDF|Jamaica Defence Force|
|MIIC|Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce|
|MNS|Ministry of National Security|
|MoE|Ministry of Education|
|---|---|
|MOFP|Ministry of Finance and Planning|
|MoJ|Ministry of Justice|
|MSTEM|Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining|
|MTW&H|Ministry of Transport, Works and Housing|
|NCC|National Contracts Commission|
|OCG|Office of the Contractor General|
|OPM/NSC|Office of the Prime Minister/National Security Council|
|Real Estate|Real Estate Board|
|RPD|Revenue Protection Department|
## TIER 1: CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGERS Objectives
###### 1. Remove Profit from Crime 2. Reform the Justice System 3. Policing by Consent 4. Adopt a Coherent Anti-Gang Strategy
5. Focus on at-risk individuals and Communities 6. Strengthen Systems of Governance Lead Implementing Agency
Support Implementing Agency
###### Ministries, Departments and Agencies
CPC Corruption Prevention Commission MoE Ministry of Education
DPP Director of Public Prosecution MOFP Ministry of Finance and Planning
FID Financial Investigations Division MoJ Ministry of Justice
FLA Firearm Licensing Authority MSTEM Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy
95
-----
_y_ _y_
|Action Points|OPM/ NSC|Real Estate|MNS|JCF|JDF|FLA|MoJ|Inter- Ministerial|MOF&P|FID|RPD|NCC|OCG|DPP|CPC|IC|MHWT&W|MSTEM|MoE|MIIC|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Objective 1: Remove the Profit from Crime|||||||||||||||||||||
|Institutional Reforms - Page 31|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Establish a permanent framework for Inter-Ministerial Cooperation on National Security|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Establish a high-level task force to focus on facilitators of crime and major criminal offenders|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Upgrade the intelligence architecture and strengthen technical capacity and capabilities needed to detect and unravel complex fraud and money-laundering operations|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Establish a Special interim Court to hear the most serious offences of organized crime, fraud and money-laundering|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Automatic denial of tainted assets during trial|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Automatic Asset Forfeiture on being found guilty of crimes (For eg. major fraud, extortion, embezzlement and money-laundering, including not just funds associated with the actual trial but all personal assets that cannot be proven to be clean).|||||||||||||||||||||
|Financial Investigation - Page 31|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Increase capacity of the Financial Investigations Division (FID) by granting it stronger investigative powers and more aggressive use of asset recovery|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. FID to focus on profiling the most serious criminals instead of pursuing the 'small dollar' cases|||||||||||||||||||||
96
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_y_ _y_
|Action Points|OPM/ NSC|Real Estate|MNS|JCF|JDF|FLA|MoJ|Inter- Ministerial|MOF&P|FID|RPD|NCC|OCG|DPP|CPC|IC|MHWT&W|MSTEM|MoE|MIIC|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|3. The Revenue Protection Division should be given a mandate to cooperate with national security agencies in all cases involving suspected money-laundering and tax evasion.|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Regularly review the legislation relating to cybercrime, including scams, fraud, extortion and the ‘grooming’ of victims by sex abusers to ensure that it remains adequate to address one of the most rapidly-evolving forms of crime|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Accelerate the introduction of a national identity system, as this would help to prevent many forms of money-laundering and tax evasion (provided that all public and many private transactions require the use of the national ID number, including government offices, tax, banking, large money transfers and investments).|||||||||||||||||||||
|Public Contracts and Licenses - Page 32|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Apply a ‘fit and proper’ criterion to all bidders for government contracts and licensing|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Specify in all government contracts that if the contract is won by a person or organization that is subsequently established to be involved in organized crime or a front for organized crime, then part or all of the cost of the completed component of the contract has to be refunded by the contractor, plus interest, with an additional penalty to cover the increased cost of completing any unfinished components of the contract.|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Specify in all government contracts that if the contract is won on the basis of forged certification or certification obtained corruptly or by any other fraudulent and/or material misrepresentation, then part or all of the full cost of the completed component of the contract has to be refunded by the contractor, plus interest, with an additional penalty to cover the increased cost of completing any unfinished components of the contract.|||||||||||||||||||||
4. Amend the definition of Government Contract to include all major sub
contractors and other tributary contracts above a given threshold
value (which should be pegged to the value range of contracts which
97
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_y_ _y_ _J_
|Action Points|OPM/ NSC|Real Estate|MNS|JCF|JDF|FLA|MoJ|Inter- Ministerial|MOF&P|FID|RPD|NCC|OCG|DPP|CPC|IC|MHWT&W|MSTEM|MoE|MIIC|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|5. Routinely require all contractors and major sub-contractors to disclose the principal and beneficial shareholders of their respective companies|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Contracts for infrastructure projects should carry fixed-term maintenance obligations and recoverable cost liabilities, so that any road (for example) that deteriorates badly while in normal use within the given period has to be properly repaired at the contractor's expense|||||||||||||||||||||
|Legislation - Page 33|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Increase significantly the penalties for contravening the Public Sector Procurement Guidelines.|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Merge the Corruption Prevention Commission (CPC), the Integrity Commission (IC) and the Office of the Contractor General (OCG) into a single Anti-Corruption Agency.|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Review the Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA) to ensure that the legislation can be extended to anyone who facilitates organized crime and anyone that is involved in corrupting the government’s contracting process.|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Encourage the use of the Evidence (Special Measures) Act, 2012, which allows evidence to be given by live link from remote locations, in cases where there is a risk that witnesses might be intimidated, or where the victim (of e.g. a Lottery scam) is an elderly citizen of another country, or where the victim or witness is a child, and needs to be protected from the trauma of appearing in court. The Evidence (Special Measures) Act can also be used to reduce the number of prisoners on remand that have to be transferred between the correctional centers and the courts, which will increase security and reduce cost|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|5. Introduce Public Interest Immunity legislation, so that information from covert sources can be taken into consideration in Court without the need to disclose their identities|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Amend the Real Estate Dealers and Developers Act to close the loopholes that currently allow illegal funds to be blended with legitimate investment capital. Serious breaches should be made a first or second schedule offence, as appropriate, under the POCA. The Real Estate Board should also be given formal responsibilities under the POCA to monitor all transactions and report any suspicious activity.|||||||||||||||||||||
|7. Introduce reporting requirements for non-financial institutions under the POCA. This includes professionals such as lawyers and accountants, agencies such as the Real Estate Board, and possibly large-scale car dealers and entertainment-providers (note that these can be given reporting requirements for threshold and suspicious transactions under POCA by Ministerial Order; legislation is not necessary).|||||||||||||||||||||
|8. Introduce cash payment limits to prevent money laundering, tax evasion and extortion. Any transaction above the limit should be by credit card, cheque, manager's cheque, inter-account transfer or any other method that leaves a record and an audit trail. Payments by the Government for goods and services should normally be made by wire transfer, phasing out the use of cheques, as this will help to reduce both cost and the risk of fraud and corruption.|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Seized Assets - Page 34|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Part of the funds seized (from illegal activities) should be re-invested in the asset seizure program and the fight against organized crime; some should also be returned to the community to fund developments that will benefit everyone (such as new schools, clinics, community centers, roads, water and drainage systems and street lighting. This is an essential part of the ‘hearts and minds' strategy needed to win the support of the community, and turn them against the criminals).|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Some criminal assets can go to auction. In some cases, however, powerful criminals may attempt to intimidate potential buyers. In such cases, it may be necessary for Government agencies to retain control of the assets, converting houses into schools, for example, and giving vehicles to the JCF and JDF to use on patrol|||||||||||||||||||||
|Objective 2: Reform the Justice System|||||||||||||||||||||
|Improve Court Management - Page 37|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Modernize Court procedures, systems, protocols and working practices, especially in the Registries.|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Strengthen the management of courts, especially with regard to scheduling and time-keeping (to ensure that the accused, the relevant police officers, witnesses, the evidence, prosecutors and defence lawyers all come before the court at the appropriate time), and introduce the routine use of penalties for delinquents (where there is no reasonable excuse for lateness or non-appearance).|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Extend court working hours from the current average of five hours a day|||||||||||||||||||||
4. Mandate the use of modern electronic (rather than paper) records
for case files, including witness statements and precedents, and
electronic tagging for physical evidence, as this will help to improve
efficiency and transparency, and the security and integrity of the
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|5. Encourage judges not to tolerate the use of delaying tactics in order to defer the execution of sentence (in some instances, involving particularly dangerous or well-connected criminals, this may have allowed time for evidence to be contaminated or destroyed, witnesses to be intimidated or killed, or for the case to lose political salience).|||||||||||||||||||||
|Reduce Delays - Page 37|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Establish clear guidelines for granting adjournments. Only one adjournment should normally be permitted per case unless there are truly exceptional circumstances. This is partly to reinstate the right to a speedy trial, and to minimize the opportunity for evidence to be contaminated, files ‘lost’, and witnesses killed or intimidated.|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Require that Notice of Alibi should be given in advance (not necessarily the names of those giving the alibi), as this will prevent one particular delaying tactic|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Abolish Preliminary Enquiries, especially in cases involving serious and/or organized crime|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Introduce plea bargaining and alternative dispute resolution methods, including restorative justice, for minor crimes|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Reform the management of traffic violations. The more effective use of traffic cameras, with automatic fines, would remove the need for many of these cases to come to court.|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Accelerate the implementation of the other provisions in the Ministry of Justice’s Backlog Reduction Strategy and the report of the 2007 Justice Reform Taskforce|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Increase consistency - Page 38|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Ensure greater consistency in the enforcement of laws and sentencing (a lack of consistency makes outcomes more idiosyncratic and therefore encourages ‘judge-shopping’, which is where some defence lawyers try to contrive that their client will come before a judge that they think will be more lenient). The Judiciary should use sentencing guidelines, with tariffs. If a judge chooses to hand down a sentence outside the guidelines, he or she should be required to give a formal explanation|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. The prosecution should be permitted to make recommendations as to the appropriate sentence (as is currently the case in the UK and USA), although the decision should remain with the judge.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Increase effectiveness against organized crime - P|ag|e 3|8||||||||||||||||||
|1. Give members of the judiciary additional training in the role and use of Proceeds of Crime (POCA), Asset Forfeiture and anti-corruption legislation, and to encourage them to routinely require persons convicted of serious crimes to prove that they came by their assets legally|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. There should be automatic asset forfeiture on being found guilty, including not just the funds associated with the actual trial, but all assets that the convicted person cannot prove to be clean, plus, where appropriate, an estimate of the lifetime personal profits derived from similar cases, and confiscation of those estimated profits (this is the approach in the UK and USA).|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Provide additional training for police officers in the proper management of evidence and the preparation of cases, especially with regard to POCA and anti-gang legislation|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|4. Provide additional training for lawyers in the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions in the preparation of cases involving POCA and anti-gang legislation.|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Review the Proceeds of Crimes Act 2007 to ensure that it contains similar provisions to the 1982 Rognoni-La Torre law (Article 416 bis of the Italian Penal Code), which makes conspiracy with organized crime a criminal offence, including laundering criminal assets, collusion, fronting for or helping to conceal criminal operations, and gives courts the power to seize the personal assets of persons involved in the conspiracy, as well as any assets transferred to their relatives, partners or cohabitants in the prior five years, which allows the seizure of the personal assets of anyone who assists a criminal to launder the proceeds of their crimes.|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Require judges to act more rapidly in approving forfeiture orders. These currently take over 14 months on average, which gives ample time to conceal or transfer assets|||||||||||||||||||||
|7. Impose denial of tainted assets during trial (criminals should not be allowed to pay their legal fees with the proceeds of crime); those accused of crimes such as fraud, extortion or money-laundering should be required to demonstrate that the funds used to pay their legal fees were obtained legitimately, and they should only be allowed to draw moderate living expenses from frozen assets while their case is being determined|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|8. Ensure that the lawyers in the DPP’s office and judges are aware that the Proceeds of Crime Act 2007 and the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering Prevention) Regulations, 2007 are all applicable to lawyers, bankers, accountants and other professionals. In particular, a lawyer that assists their clients to conceal their assets or otherwise launder their funds is effectively conspiring to weaken the system of justice in Jamaica and undermine the people's faith in law and justice, so any such case should be prosecuted to the full extent that the law allows|||||||||||||||||||||
|9. Lawyers should not be allowed to conceal money laundering, fraud and tax evasion behind the principle of client confidentiality. All sums (over an agreed minimum) transferred or invested on behalf of Clients must be reported, disclosing sources and amounts.|||||||||||||||||||||
|10. Review the Parole and Bail Acts to ensure that particular categories of criminals (homicide, violent crime and sex crimes) are normally ineligible for bail where there is a clear risk that witnesses will be intimidated or murdered, or evidence destroyed.|||||||||||||||||||||
|11. Strengthen anti-gang legislation, where necessary, to ensure that gang membership or association is defined as a serious criminal offence.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Ensure The Integrity Of The Judiciary - Page 40|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Amend judicial letters of appointment to indicate the expected standards of performance and incorporate the Judicial Code of Conduct and any further required ethical standards, with provisions for removal from the bench for anyone who falls significantly below the performance and standards required.|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|2. Members of the judiciary should be required to file annual declarations under the Corruption (Prevention) Act.|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Review the Legal Profession Act to strengthen the ethical standards required of lawyers, and strengthen, if necessary, the power of the General Legal Council to enforce such standards.|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Members of the judiciary, defence and prosecution lawyers should be required to submit to polygraph examinations if requested to do so by the Anti-Corruption Commission.|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Strengthen the ability of the Court Management Service to monitor the performance, professional conduct and ethics of Registry staff and bailiffs.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Ancillary Reforms - Page 40|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Strengthen the management of the chain of evidence. It is very important to have strong protocols in place for the preparation of witness statements, police reports, and the management of evidence from the crime scene to the police storage facility, the forensic laboratory and the court, so that there can be no doubt as to the integrity of the system. It is essential that all parties involved can be confident that the witness statements are authentic, that the facts in the police reports have been recorded accurately, and that the evidence presented in court is the same evidence that was taken from at the scene of the crime (this is not currently the case; many charges are dismissed because of inconsistencies and technical errors in the evidence presented).|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Ensure witness protection in cases where the witnesses might be at risk (witnesses sometimes have to sit in the same waiting room as the accused, and their identities are usually known, which makes it easier for violent criminals to intimidate witnesses or have them murdered)|||||||||||||||||||||
3. Ensure that all prisoners undergo rehabilitation training before
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|Objective 3: Policing by Consent|||||||||||||||||||||
|Reassuring the Public - Page 44|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. There should be increased transparency with regard to failures of proper procedure, with independent investigation of every use of deadly force by the police.|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Ensure that any police officer who is found to have seriously abused his powers is removed from the police force and made to face criminal charges|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Give JCF officers increased training in the use of non-lethal options, equip more officers with non-lethal technologies and develop appropriate protocols to ensure that every officer can respond appropriately to each threat increase|||||||||||||||||||||
|Supporting the Police - Page 44|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Give increased counseling and other psycho-social support for police and security forces, especially first-responders and others who are exposed to serious risk and trauma|||||||||||||||||||||
|Information Management - Page 44|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. There should be a transition to intelligent policing – intelligence-led policing, better information management and access, and a total policing strategy that encourages the sharing of relevant information between different police divisions. This will require the further strengthening of performance tracking, with a national crime map updated continuously to allow the management of crime hotspots and civil unrest, modeled on the New York crime map information management system|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|2. The JCF should institutionalize the use of predictive analytics software such as CRUSH (Criminal Reduction Utilizing Statistical History), which looks for patterns in crime records, intelligence briefings, offender profiles and other data to identify where particular types of crimes are most likely to occur. The JCF should also strengthen their capacity to undertake criminal profiling|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. The JCF should accelerate the full integration of JCF information management systems, phase out all paper-based recording, and mandate a transition to electronic records, with templates developed for PCs and hand-held devices (such as smart phones) to guide officers to input the data correctly. The first priority would be to introduce these systems for crime recording, crime scene management and management of the chain of evidence|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Install automatic number-plate recognition software as part of CCTV traffic management systems|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Take Integrated Ballistics Identification System (IBIS) records of all guns in Jamaica – all police, military and legally-owned guns should be recorded, as should all criminal firearms when seized|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Strengthen crime scene management, including the rapid debriefing of first responders, with good systems for the management of physical, electronic and all other forms of evidence. Many police forces manage the chain of custody with the paperwork that accompanies the evidence. However, as it is possible for paperwork to be lost, along with the physical evidence to which it is attached, the recommended solution is to manage the entire chain of custody through a single database, with secure information management systems that allow controlled access for legitimate inputs and inquiries|||||||||||||||||||||
7. Integrate the system for the management of the chain of evidence
with the system for managing the documentation needed in Court.
All paper records used in the justice system should therefore be
replaced with electronic records; this will prevent case files from
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|8. The police should train more Scene of Crime Officers, and must have access to at least one full-spectrum forensic laboratory which can process all types of physical, ballistic, blood-spatter and biological evidence; including DNA analysis and body reconstruction.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Supportive Legislative Reform - Page 45|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Introduce legislation for the mandatory registration of all cell phone numbers (this is now routinely done in countries such as Mexico, which introduced this requirement in order to assist in tracking kidnappers and extortionists)|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Introduce legislation to require Cellular Service Providers to store call data for a given period, and make these records available to police, with a valid warrant, when this is needed to assist investigations|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Review the legislation that covers wiretaps and electronic intercepts in order to allow the police electronic access, with a valid warrant (in order to protect the right to privacy), to a wider set of databases in the pursuit of crime, including bank accounts, tax records and shipping manifests|||||||||||||||||||||
|Management of staff and resources - Page 45|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Merge the ISCF into the JCF in order to improve efficiency and reduce cost. There is no longer a good reason to maintain two separate forces.|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. The District Constable Act needs to be reviewed and upgraded in order to improve the service provided and to address welfare issues.|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. The program of ‘civilianization’ (for positions in the JCF that do not require powers of arrest) should continue|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. The JCF should aim to have ownership of its buildings. Currently, it is a major drain on public funds and the money currently spent on rent could be used to replace or repair JCF buildings.|||||||||||||||||||||
5. The JCF should have a proper fleet management plan for
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Objective 4: Adopt a Coherent Anti-Gang Stra|teg|y|||||||||||||||||||
|Focused Enforcement - Page 50|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Increase the probability of detection and punishment of crimes committed by criminal gang members|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Increase the speed of punishment. This requires reform and streamlining of both police and judicial procedures.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Community-Based Policing - Page 51|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Organize community policing on a 'Same Cop, Same Neighbourhood' basis, with officers being assigned to particular neighbourhoods so that they become familiar with the local residents and issues, and can get involved in helping to solve problems and resolve conflicts|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Community policing should be supported by improved planning, regulation and building control; this is in order to prevent illegal settlements, and to remove abandoned buildings and any zinc fences used to create defensible spaces in which gangs can operate.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Support For Victims And Witnesses - Page 51|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Significantly strengthen the Witness Protection Programme|||||||||||||||||||||
|Clear, Hold And Build - Page 51|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Adopt a clear, hold and build strategy. These are operations that can clear gangs out of entire communities; hold those areas by maintaining a strong, continuous police presence to provide lasting security, and then build a robust civil society by engaging other government agencies and NGOs to provide education, training, economic opportunities, health care and prompt justice.|||||||||||||||||||||
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Prevent Recruitment - Page 51|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Disrupt the process of gang member recruitment. These involve call-ins for the gang members and confrontations with victims, followed by the presentation of a clear choice – reform, and qualify for assistance and job-training, or remain in the gang; anyone that chooses to remain an active gang member should then be subjected to every possible form of legal harassment by every arm of government (tax compliance, vehicle licensing, business permits and so on should all be made as difficult as possible for known gang members who refuse to give up their criminal connections).|||||||||||||||||||||
|Denial Of Liberty - Page 52|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Violent criminals should not normally be granted bail, especially when there is a clear risk that witnesses will be intimidated or murdered, or evidence destroyed.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Objective 5: Focus On At-Risk Individuals And|C|om|m|u|nit|ie|s||||||||||||||
|Breaking The Cycle Of Violence - Page 54|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. Ensure that every school has a program to deal with maladaptive behavior, trauma, post-traumatic stress, depression and other long-term consequences of the physical, sexual, emotional and psychological abuse of children.|||||||||||||||||||||
|Social Intervention - Page 54|||||||||||||||||||||
|1. The first goal of all social intervention programmes should be a significant, sustained reduction in the level of crime and violence|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Integrate all social intervention programmes into a coherent strategy with inter-Ministry and inter- agency coordination.|||||||||||||||||||||
3. Programmes should be a self-sustaining process of economic
regeneration
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Objective 6: Strengthen Systems of Governan|ce|-|Pa|ge|5|7|||||||||||||||
|1. Move the focus away from reactive and containment strategies to concentrate on dismantling criminal organizations, including their facilitators|||||||||||||||||||||
|2. Seize the proceeds of crime|||||||||||||||||||||
|3. Strengthen anti-corruption measures|||||||||||||||||||||
|4. Increase transparency in the public accounts, especially with regard to procurement|||||||||||||||||||||
|5. Reform the justice system.|||||||||||||||||||||
|6. Improve intelligence-sharing with key strategic partners|||||||||||||||||||||
|7. Encourage the DPP and the Judiciary to vigorously pursue the most serious cases of high-level corruption and illegal enrichment|||||||||||||||||||||
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|Col1|Ministries, Departments and Agencies|
|---|---|
|JCF|Jamaica Constabulary Force|
|JDF|Jamaica Defence Force|
|MFAFT|Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Foreign Trade|
|MLGCD|Ministry of Local Government & Community Development|
|MNS|Ministry of National Security|
|MoH|Ministry of Health|
|MoT|Ministry of Tourism|
|MSTEM|Ministry of Science Technology Energy & Mining|
|MT&W|Ministry of Transport and Works|
|NEPA|National Environment and Planning Agency|
|ODPEM|Office of Disaster Preperedness and Emergency Management|
## Tier 2: MAJOR POTENTIAL THREATS
Lead Implementing Agency
Support Implementing Agency
###### Ministries, Departments and Agencies
JCF Jamaica Constabulary Force
JDF Jamaica Defence Force
MFAFT Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Foreign Trade
MLGCD Ministry of Local Government & Community Development
MNS Ministry of National Security
MoH Ministry of Health
MoT Ministry of Tourism
MSTEM Ministry of Science Technology Energy & Mining
MT&W Ministry of Transport and Works
NEPA National Environment and Planning Agency
ODPEM Office of Disaster Preperedness and Emergency Management
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Traditional Threats||||||||||||
|The Mexican, Central and South American Cartels and Maras Page 63||||||||||||
|1. Track signs of cartel interest in the Caribbean. Relevant indicators include: a) Evidence that the cartels are acquiring shipping companies and port operations, as they might then seek to expand their trans-shipment operations across the Caribbean. b) The rate of interceptions of narco-submarine and surface vessel shipments in the Caribbean, which will indicate the extent to which shipments are being re- routed from the cross-borderand Pacific routes (the number of intercepts has increased significantly in the last couple of years). c) Reports of increasing cartel involvement in other Caribbean jurisdictions (they already have a presence in several other Caribbean countries).||||||||||||
|2. Establish intelligence-sharing links with the relevant US agencies, including the FBI, DEA, ATF and Southcom and with security, police and intelligence agencies in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Guatemala and Salvador as well as other Caribbean jurisdictions. (This will then allow for ‘due diligence’ background checks on investors, especially from Mexico and Central America, to see whether any of them have known connections to organized crime).||||||||||||
|Terrorism - Page 67||||||||||||
|1. Identify Threats: Use horizon scan assessments to identify ‘unknown unknowns’ undertake critical, independent||||||||||||
|2. Advance intelligence: Ensure that allied intelligence services relay any information about a possible threat to Jamaica in a timely manner, which in turn means ensuring that the JCF and JDF have the technical capacity to maintain the high level of security needed to protect this information while taking necessary action||||||||||||
3. Training and Technology:
a) Encourage private sector operators to strengthen their security and prepare for
possible attacks. For example ensure that staff members are properly trained to
evacuate ships or hotels in an orderly and safe manner while cruise ship captains are
t i d i i
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|b) The Government of Jamaica should work with the travel and tourism industry, and with other governments, to encourage (and, where necessary, mandate) the industry to implement a range of affordable, unobtrusive measures that will make a terrorism incident less likely to happen, and reduce the impact if one does happen.||||||||||||
|4. Strengthen Response Capacity: Strengthen public health infrastructure, with adequate stockpiles of medical supplies to deal with a major terrorist incident or natural disaster||||||||||||
|Non-Traditional Threats||||||||||||
|Energy and Resources - Page 73||||||||||||
|1. Improve the efficiency with which energy and resources are used in Jamaica, and to develop new energy supplies. The priorities are to: a) Promote greater energy efficiency, especially in buildings and the transport sector. b) Promote the development, dissemination and uptake of renewable and low-carbon energy technologies, especially those that would also reduce Jamaica’s dependence on imports. c) Promote the uptake of advanced resource management concepts, such as cleaner technology, waste exchanges and industrial symbiosis.||||||||||||
|Earthquakes-Page 75||||||||||||
|1. Ensure that Jamaica is prepared for a major earthquake and/or tsunami. (This will involve reviewing national planning guidelines and building codes, identifying the most vulnerable areas, and upgrading emergency planning and disaster management).||||||||||||
|2. Protect the core functions of government, by ensuring that key Government offices, army barracks, police headquarters, hospitals, supplies of emergency stores, communications links and so on are in secure buildings, designed to withstand the most severe conditions.||||||||||||
|3. Ensure that all vital records are regularly backed up to hardened sites.||||||||||||
|4. Ensure that all government departments are aware of the need for disaster preparedness and emergency management||||||||||||
5. All new buildings should be built to the requisite standards, especially public buildings
(such as schools), and those who can afford it should also strengthen their own homes
114
-----
e at o a Secu ty o cy o Ja a ca 0 3
|Action Points|MFAFT|MNS|JDF|JCF|MOT|MT&W|MSTEM|ODPEM|NEPA|MoH|MLGCD|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|6. Establish basic earthquake education and have practice drills and simulation exercises||||||||||||
|7. All parishes should have disaster specialists who can prepare, organize regular training exercises, and ensure that essential supplies are stockpiled (shovels, tents, plastic sheeting and shelter material, mosquito nets, kitchen sets, portable toilets, hygiene and sanitation equipment, stores of food and water, and medical supplies for dealing with crush and other trauma injuries, respiratory disease, obstetrics, and vaccinations||||||||||||
|8. Make an inventory of essential equipment (like bulldozers and other earth-moving equipment) and their locations in advance so that these can be requisitioned after the earthquake to clear arterial routes. It is also important to identify large areas of clear ground, such as sports fields, as these may be needed for emergency evacuation centres, temporary hospitals and heliports.||||||||||||
|9. Strengthen public health infrastructure, with adequate stockpiles of medical supplies to deal with a major natural disaster or terrorist incident (including treatments for chronic diseases, in case other supplies are temporarily disrupted)||||||||||||
|Biodiversity, Environmental Planning and Management - Page 77||||||||||||
|1. Reform and improve Jamaica’s planning and regulatory systems||||||||||||
|2. Develop a national spatial plan, which would allow the most efficient use of land and resources.||||||||||||
|3. Develop a goal-oriented planning model||||||||||||
115
-----
## Tier 3 PERSISTENT PROBLEMS
Lead Implementing Agency
Support Implementing Agency
|Col1|Ministries, Departments and Agencies|
|---|---|
|Cab Off.|Office of the Cabinet|
|MLSS|Ministry of Labour and Social Security|
|MoE|Ministry of Education|
|MoT|Ministry of Tourism|
|MSTEM|Ministry of Science Technology Energy & Mining|
|NEPA|National Environment and Planning Agency|
|ODPEM|Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management|
|MOTW&H|Ministry of Transport, Works and Housing|
|MNS|Ministry of National Security|
|MFAFT|Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade|
|MIIC|Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce|
|MoA&F|Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries|
PIOJ Planing Institute of Jamaica
116
-----
_y_ _y_ _J_
|Action Points|MSTEM|MoT|Cab Off.|ODPEM|NEPA|MLSS|MoE|PIOJ|MOTW&H|MNS|MFAFT|MIIC|MoAF|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Public Debt - Page 79||||||||||||||
|1. Improve efficiency of public sector systems||||||||||||||
|2. Harness HR in public sector for knowledge management||||||||||||||
|Credibility With International Partners - Page 80||||||||||||||
|1. Shift emphasis to cooperation on policing and intelligence, trade facilitation, especially with regard to e-commerce, on-line services, tourism and high-value niche products such as nutraceuticals, the development of e-government (with the associated improvements in efficiency, a smaller payroll and reduced costs and delays in public administration), and increasing human capital and the skills base in the workforce||||||||||||||
|2. There should be planning and regulatory reform to prevent environmental degradation, and control the depletion of natural resources and reduce exposure to natural hazards, in conjunction with regional risk-pooling to manage the cost of earthquakes and hurricanes, and cooperate on policing and intelligence||||||||||||||
|Poverty and Unemployment - Page 82||||||||||||||
|Stimulate growth in the economy:||||||||||||||
|1. Increase the size of the workforce.||||||||||||||
|2. Make the workforce more productive by utilizing technologies and reducing bureaucracy||||||||||||||
|3. Develop a clear strategic vision of where the growth opportunities will be in the future.||||||||||||||
117
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_y_ _y_ _J_
|Action Points|MSTEM|MoT|Cab Off.|ODPEM|NEPA|MLSS|MoE|PIOJ|MOTW&H|MNS|MFAFT|MIIC|MoAF|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|The Role Of Education And Training - Page 83||||||||||||||
|1. The resources for education (above primary level) including adult education and training in Jamaica should be focused on areas where there is potential demand-pull, i.e. areas where there are more likely to be growth opportunities in future||||||||||||||
|2. Improve teaching standards in the primary and secondary schools. A truancy service should be introduced in schools, so that school officials are mandated to find out what has happened to absentees, and a universal system of home-school contracts should be established.||||||||||||||
|3. Education and training programmes should incorporate and emphasize the importance of the following skills that will be required in the long term: social networking skills ( team -builders, managers and leaders) ; creative skills (designers, visionaries and conceptualizers), technical skills (scientists, engineers and technicians), logistical skills (organizers, project aggregators and coordinators, open- source project managers, logistics and supply-chain strategists and managers), thinking skills (critical thinkers, problem-solvers, policy analysts and business strategists), entrepreneurial skills (people who can network between different networks, e.g. scientists, financiers, and the businesses that control the manufacturing, supply and distribution networks) and generic skills (e.g. people who are ICT-fluent, can multi-task, network, and have high emotional intelligence).||||||||||||||
|4. It is important to draw on the talents, resources and contacts of the Jamaican Diaspora. They can provide the links to markets, ideas and business opportunities that will demand-pull business development in Jamaica.||||||||||||||
|5. Utilize the opportunity of the proposed development of a Logistics Hub by establishing the necessary training programs before the Hub becomes fully operational. This could be supplemented with targeted support for entrepreneurs, especially in low-income areas, to encourage community regeneration.||||||||||||||
|6. Accelerate the transition to e-government in order to reduce the cost of government services, the size of the public payroll, and the delays imposed on individuals and businesses.||||||||||||||
118
-----
_y_ _y_
|Action Points|MSTEM|MoT|Cab Off.|ODPEM|NEPA|MLSS|MoE|PIOJ|MOTW&H|MNS|MFAFT|MIIC|MoAF|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Deported Persons - Page 84||||||||||||||
|1. With regard to serious criminal deportations, it is critical to maintain and improve communications between law enforcement agencies in the deporting countries and the authorities in Jamaica, so that serious criminals can be put under surveillance, if necessary, in case they try to re-establish their criminal connections or regain control over their former community in Jamaica.||||||||||||||
|2. With regard to deportations for visa violations or petty crimes, it is important to encourage their assimilation back into society, as that will reduce the risk that they will get involved in criminal activity in Jamaica. This should include establishing a short-stay hostel for those who arrive without friends or financial resources, and giving them access to HEART/NTA training courses.||||||||||||||
|Informal Communities- Page 85||||||||||||||
|Implement the 3-tier model:||||||||||||||
|1. If a settlement is unsafe (e.g. on an unstable slope or land prone to flooding), the occupants must be moved as soon as possible.||||||||||||||
|2. If a settlement is safe, but on land that is needed for legitimate purposes, the occupants must still be moved to other locations, but this can be done over a longer period of time (depending on when the land is needed).||||||||||||||
|3. If a settlement is in a safe location, in relatively good condition, and on land that is not needed for other purposes, it should be considered for upgrading and regularizing.||||||||||||||
119
-----
|Col1|Ministries, Departments and Agencies|
|---|---|
|JCF|Jamaica Constabulary Force|
|MWLE&C|Ministry of Water Land Environment and Climate Change|
|MoA&F|Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries|
|MNS|Ministry of National Security|
|MSTEM|Ministry of Science Technology Energy & Mining|
|SRC|Scientific Research Council|
## Tier 4 POSSIBLE RISKS THAT REQUIRE MONITORING
Lead Implementing Agency
Support Implementing Agency
###### Ministries, Departments and Agencies
JCF Jamaica Constabulary Force
MWLE&C Ministry of Water Land Environment and Climate Change
MoA&F Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries
MNS Ministry of National Security
MSTEM Ministry of Science Technology Energy & Mining
SRC Scientific Research Council
120
-----
_y_ _y_
|Action Points|MoA&F|MWLE&C|MNS|JCF|SRC|MSTEM|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Food Security|||||||
|1) Develop technology - Page 87|||||||
|Accelerate the development and adoption of particular technologies so that far greater volumes of output of food, fibre and fuel can be generated in smaller areas. This includes: a) Genetically modified plants and animals. If, for example, a gene that conferred the ability to survive in a more arid or a more saline environment can be transplanted into a food or industrial crop, this would increase the area of cultivable land b) Production in environments where evaporation and pests can be more easily controlled (such as polytunnels and hydroponics) c) Aquaculture; using fish modified to thrive in intensive conditions.|||||||
|2) Develop new market opportunities - Page 87|||||||
|Micro-nutrients|||||||
|Explore a possible new high-value export market (for example a number of actives and micro-nutrients could be grown, processed and supplied from Jamaica).Changing world demographic trends have already created a new market for actives and micro- nutrients, mostly plant extracts, which are used to reduce the impact of age-related degenerative disease.|||||||
|3) Biofuels - Page 88 (still an emerging industry, but there are already four distinct ge|neratio|ns of b|iofuel|techno|logy:||
|Jamaica should focus on third and fourth-generation biofuels, as these have the potential to give the country the basis for energy independence. While First and second-generation biofuels have limited potential in Jamaica, if Jamaica’s entire annual biomass harvest were converted into fuel using a cellulosic process, it would only displace at most one-third of its oil imports. a) First generation: This includes cane or corn-derived ethanol. b) Second generation: This includes cellulosic ethanol, which allows more of the plant to be converted. c) Third generation: It is projected that an efficient algae-based process could eventually produce 10-20,000 gallons of fuel per acre per year. d) Fourth generation: This involves synthetic genomics; where organisms are engineered to serve as bioreactors, and make fuel.|||||||
121
-----
_y_ _y_
|Action Points|MoA&F|MWLE&C|MNS|JCF|SRC|MSTEM|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|4) Improve Food Security - Page 88|||||||
|A study on the Sugar Industry of Jamaica in 2009 proposed a managed, partial diversification of the cane lands into a combination of more intensive, higher-value uses in order to improve both food and economic security. This included food (such as yam, potatoes, cassava, dasheen, breadfruit and other complex carbohydrates), and high-value plant extracts (such as oleoresins and flavonoids) for export. Measures like these would help to improve Jamaica’s food security, reduce imports and increase exports, retain more capital in Jamaica and thereby strengthen the economy|||||||
|Water Security - Page 89|||||||
|To prevent contamination of water supplies the following steps sh|ould|be t|ake|n : -|Page|89|
|1. Improve sewage disposal systems, so that surface and ground water are not contaminated.|||||||
|2. Encourage the safe use and disposal of agrochemicals through Agricultural extension programs. Burial (preferably in designated sites) is usually a much better option than surface disposal|||||||
|3. Encourage more efficient irrigation through agricultural extension programs|||||||
|4. Develop more local water supplies to reduce the need to pump water uphill|||||||
122
-----
## Glossary
_Civil Defence_
A range of emergency measures to be taken by an organised body of civilian volunteers for
the protection of life and property in the event of natural disasters or other crisis
_Civil Society_
Persons or organisations that comprise but are not limited to non-governmental non-
political or non-commercial enterprises
_Community Policing_
An approach to policing in which police officers, citizens and community groups work
together in an agreed partnership to solve policing problems; this may also include some
social problems in the community
_Corruption_
Corruption is when either power or position is misused for personal profit, and can take
place in both the private and public sector. Examples of corruption include bribery, coercion,
nepotism, bid-rigging and electoral fraud
_Diversion Program_
A diversion program in the criminal justice system is a form of sentencing that allows
offenders to avoid a custodial sentence. This may include education aimed at preventing
future offenses, making restitution to victims, undertaking community service or an injunction
to avoid particular places or people
_Extortion_
The practice of obtaining something, usually money, by force or threat
_First Responders_
Persons from authorised ministries, departments and agencies who are tasked with
providing the requisite medical assistance and/or technical expertise in a disaster, accident,
or other life-threatening situation
_Gang Violence_
Criminal acts committed by a group of three or more individuals who regularly engage in
criminal activity and identify themselves with a common name or sign
_Garrison_
Community political enclave that largely supports a major political party and where state
authority has been generally undermined
_Governance_
Exercise of power in the economic, political and administrative management of a nation
_Human Security_
The protection of individuals and communities from the threats of violence, poverty, diseases
and natural disasters
_Homicide_
The unlawful killing of one person by another
-----
_Human Trafficking_
This includes sex trafficking in which a sex act is induced by force, fraud or coercion, or in which
the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age; or the recruitment,
harbouring, transportation, provision, or obtaining of a person for labour or services, through
the use of force, fraud or coercion for the purpose of subjection to involuntary servitude,
peonage, debt bondage or slavery
_Identify theft_
A crime in which an imposter obtains key pieces of personal information, such as social
security or driver’s license numbers to impersonate someone else, usually for the purposes
of theft
_Illegal Paramilitaries_
Groups of civilians who are organised in military fashion but lack legitimate authority
_Industrial Property_
Inventions, trademarks industrial designs, stock and interest-bearing securities of industrial
and commercial companies
_Intellectual Property_
Original creative work manifested in a tangible form (inventions, literary and artistic works,
symbols, names, images and designs used in commerce) that can be legally protected by a
patent, trademark or copyright
_Lottery Scam_
An advance-fee fraud which usually begins with an unexpected email notification that the
person has won a prize, but has to pay fees before the prize can be released
_Murder_
The unlawful, premeditated killing of one person by another
_Narco-trafficking_
Illegal trade in narcotics and psychotropic substances
_National Security Policy_
A master plan providing strategic guidelines for accomplishing national security goals in
support of the national interest
_Ponzi Schemes_
A form of fraud in which belief in the success of a non-existent enterprise is fostered by the
payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors
_Recidivism_
A tendency of criminal offenders to relapse into their previous undesirable and illegal behavior
_Restorative Justice_
An approach to justice that emphasises restitution, forgiveness and healing of relationships
where a wrong has been committed
_Retributive Justice_
An approach to justice that punishes offenders for a crime
-----
_Security Forces_
Term normally used to refer to the police and military when working together on joint
operations
_Terrorism_
The use of violence or intimidation to coerce a government or civilian population to further
political or social objectives
_Transnational Threats_
Threats that transcend national borders, usually from organized crime or terrorist
organizations
_White-collar crime_
Non-violent crime for financial gain committed by means of deception by persons with
special technical and professional knowledge of business or government
_Vulnerable Groups_
Groups of persons who are susceptive to abuse as a result of their age, disability, or the
stigma associated with their lifestyle
_Zero Tolerance_
Absence of any leniency or exception in the enforcement of a law, rule or regulation; and
commitment to addressing rather than neglecting problems relating to justice and the rule
of law
-----
## List of Acronyms
ATF Action Task Force Ministry of Local Government and
MLGCD
Community Development
BTU British Thermal Unit
Ministry of Labour and Social
CabOff Office of the Cabinet MLSS
Security
CCTV Closed Circuit Television
MNS Ministry of National Security
CDB Convention on Biological Diversity
MoE Ministry of Education
CPC Corruption Prevention Commission
MoH Ministry of Health
CPI Corruption Perception Index
MoJ Ministry of Justice
DEA Drug Enforcement Administration
Ministry of Tourism and
MoTE
DPP Director of Public Prosecutions Entertainment
EBR Energy Balance Ratio MOYC Ministry of Youth and Culture
EC European Commission Ministry of Science, Technology,
MSTEM
EFPI Economist Food Price Index Energy and Mining
EI Energy Intensity Index Ministry of Water, Land Environment
MWLECC
and Climate Change
EPGF Enriquillo – Plantain Garden Fault
NCC National Contracts Commission
ETA Euskadi ta Askatasuna
NCD Non Communicable Diseases
Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de
FARC
Colombia National Environment and Planning
NEPA
Agency
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation
NSC National Security Council
FID Financial Investigations Division
NSP National Security Policy
FLA Firearm Licensing Authority
National Security Policy Coordination
GDP Gross Domestic Product NSPCU
Unit
Heart Trust/ National Training
HEART Trust/NTA OCG Office of the Contractor General
Agency
Office of Disaster Preparedness and
Integrated Ballistics Identification ODPEM
IBIS Emergency Management
System
OPM Office of the Prime Minister
IC Integrity Commission
ID Identification PAYE Pay As You Earn
International Food Policy Research PCs Personal Computers
IFPRI
Institute
POCA Proceeds of Crime Act
Inter-Ministerial Committee on
IMCCSR
Community Safety and Renewal RPD Revenue Protection Division
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate RPGs Rocket Propelled Grenades
IPCC
Change
Southcom US Southern Command
IRA Irish Republican Army
TEI Total Expected Impact
JCF Jamaica Constabulary Force
Transnational Organised Criminal
TNOC
JDF Jamaica Defence Force Structures
LRAD Long Range Acoustic Device UK United Kingdom
MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries United Nation Office on Drugs and
UNODC
Crime
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
MFAFT
Foreign Trade US United States
MFP Ministry of Finance and Planning USA United States of America
Ministry of Industry Investment and WF World Economic Forum
MIIC
Commerce
-----
## Steering Committee
Permanent Secretary, Ministry of National Security (MNS) Miss Dianne McIntosh
Chief Technical Director, MNS Mr Vivian Brown
Chief of Defence Staff, Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) Major General Antony Anderson OD, ADC, JP
Commissioner of Police, Jamaica Constabulary Force Mr Owen Ellington OD, JP
Deputy Chief of Defence Staff, JDF Brigadier Rocky Meade OD, JP
Deputy Commissioner of Police, JCF Mr Glenmore Hinds OD
Strategy Plans and Policy, JDF Col Jaimie Ogilvie
Assistant Commissioner of Police, JCF Mr Kevin Blake
Executive Director, NSPCU Mrs Jacinth Byles
Legal Officer, MNS Miss Karen Davis
Chief Policy Analyst, Cabinet Office Ms Kaytana McLeod
Consultant, Planning Institute of Jamaica Mr Charles Clayton
## Consultant
Institute for Sustainable Development
Professor Anthony Clayton
University of the West Indies (UWI)
### National Security Policy Coordination Unity (NSPCU) Staff
Executive Director Mrs. Jacinth Byles
Communication Specialist Miss Melecia Brown/Mrs. Gwyneth Davidson
Research Analyst Miss Paula Wadsworth
-----
## Consultation Workshop Representatives
Agency for Inner City Renewal Ministry of Industry Investment & Commerce
Airport Authority of Jamaica Ministry of Labour and Social Security
Attorney General’s Department Ministry of Local Government and Community Development
Bankers Association of Jamaica Ministry of National Security
Child Development Agency Ministry of Transport Works and Housing
Citizen Security and Justice Programme Ministry of Water, Land, Environment and Climate Change
Department of Correctional Services National Association of Parish Development Committees
Department of Public Prosecutions National Environment and Planning Agency
Diaspora and Consular Affairs – Ministry of Foreign Affairs National Registration Unit, Office of the Prime Minister
and Foreign Trade
National Water Commission
European Union
Office of the Cabinet
Financial Investigation Division
Office of the Children’s Advocate
Flankers Peace and Justice Centre
Office of the Contractor General
Forestry Department
Pan American Health Organisation
Independent Commission of Investigations (INDECOM)
Passport Immigration and Citizenship Agency
Jamaica Association of Principals for Secondary Schools
Peace Management Initiative
Jamaica Bar Association
Planning Institute of Jamaica
Jamaica Civil Aviation Authority
Port Security Corps
Jamaica Constabulary Force
Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica
Jamaica Council of Churches
Real Estate Board
Jamaica Customs
Rise Life Management Services
Jamaica Defence Force
Social Development Commission
Jamaica Social Investment Fund
Spanish Town Peace and Justice Centre
Jamaicans for Justice
Tax Administration Jamaica
Kingston and St Andrew Council
United Nations Development Programe
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries
United States Agency for International Development
Ministry of Education
University of the West Indies
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade
World Bank
Ministry of Health
## International Consultations
Belize Defence Force US Bureau of Arms, Tobacco and Firearms
British High Commission, Jamaica (Military and Political US Embassy, Jamaica (Military and Political sections)
sections)
US Marine Corps
Centre for Hemispheric Defence Studies, National Defence
University
US Naval War College
Royal College of Defence Studies
US Naval War College
The Royal College of Defence Studies
US Southern COmand
UK Aid
World Bank
UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
-----
## References
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-----
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David Richards’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8957513/Eurozone-crisis-poses-military-risk-
warns-defence-chief-General-Sir-David-Richards.html
xxxvi The Telegraph 5th January 2012 ‘Debt crisis is biggest threat to security of West, says Philip Hammond’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8993452/Debt-crisis-is-biggest-threat-to-
security-of-West-says-Philip-Hammond.html
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xxxvii Don Robotham. The Condition of Our Youth. The Gleaner, 30th January 201
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110130/cleisure/cleisure2.html
xxxviii Don The Condition of Our Youth. The Gleaner, 6th February 2011
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110206/cleisure/cleisure2.html
xxxix International Finance Corporation/World Bank Doing Business Report: Measuring Business Regulations.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploretopics/starting-a-business
xl International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. Doing Business 2013.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/
English/DB13-full-report.pdf
xli International Finance Corporation / The World Bank. Ease of Doing Business in Jamaica 2013.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/jamaica/
xlii A Clayton, W Wehrmeyer and C A Bruce, 2011. Challenges, Opportunities, Threats and Skills: the Transition
to 2030. Report on the future of work. HEART-NTA, Jamaica, March 2011
xliii B Headley, 2006. Giving critical context to the deportee phenomenon, CBS Interactive Business Network
Resource Library, Spring 2006.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3427/is_1_33/ai_n29297930/?tag=content;col1
xliv Ministry of Land and Environment, National Squatter Survey Final Report, August 2004
xlv Ministry of Water and Housing (2008), A Rapid Assessment Report on squatting in Jamaica
xlvi FAO (2008) Joint FAO/IFAD/WFP Statement to the Financing for Development Conference 28 November -
2 December 2008, Doha, Qatar
xlvii The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions. International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, 2007.
xlviii Source: UN World Population Prospects
xlix A Clayton, K’nIfe and Spencer, 2009. ‘The Sugar Industry in Jamaica’ United Nations Environment Program,
Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics, Economics and Trade Branch, Geneva, 2009.
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