#### National Defence Development Plan # 2013 – 2022 ## 1 Foreword ----- personnel and equipped with the required materiel. The establishment of such units is the focus of this Plan. The National Defence Development Plan was compiled jointly by the Ministry of Defence and Defence Forces experts, taking into account also analyses by other government institutions and the military plans of Estonia’s allies. Considering the threats that could potentially impact Estonian security and the resources available for military defence in the next decade, the development plan provides for the creation of concrete units that are, if needed, prepared to respond quickly. Estonia’s rapid response capability currently has shortcomings. In the decade ahead of us, Estonia’s military defensive capacity will see signi㔹‵cant growth. Instead of the 18,000 personnel set out in the previous development plan, there will be over 21,000 personnel in the Defence Forces’ rapid response structure, among them 3,600 active-duty personnel instead of the current 3,100. All of the reservists who have received training from the Estonian Defence Forces as part of their compulsory military service will be included in Estonia’s primaryreadiness and supplemental reserves, and this contingent will be 60,000 strong. By 2022 the primary-readiness and supplemental reserve will grow to 90,000 strong. The military defence development plan approved four years ago was not completely feasible due to the recession that took place in the interim: current forecasts are that Estonia has over one-third less funds than estimated at that time. It is still possible to increase military capacity, if defence spending continues to stay at 2 per cent of the gross domestic product and if we are able, throughout the decade ahead, to focus on developing the military capabilities that we need and are within our powers. All of the capabilities we need – even the ones we are unable to develop in the next ten years – will remain longer term goals and will be scheduled for ful㔹‵lment after 2022 or if the defence budget should signi㔹‵cantly increase in the meantime. Urmas Reinsalu Minister of Defence Riho Terras Brigadier General Commander of the Defence Forces Mikk Marran Permanent Secretary Ministry of Defence ## 2. Resources Projected in the Previous ### Development Plan and the Reality ----- rise to 2 per cent of GDP by 2010. Due to the economic crisis, the defence budget was cut by 17 per cent in 2009. The increase of the defence budget to 2 per cent to GDP was postponed and the economic forecast was reduced on several occasions. In 2009-2012, a total of 1.126 billion euros was available for defence spending, and, in accordance with the Ministry of Finance’s spring 2012 forecast – on condition that the defence spending would remain at 2 per cent of GDP – a total of 2.539 billion euros is available in the years 2013-2018. Thus the actual and forecasted defence expenditures for 2009-2018 total 3.665 billion euros, which is about 33 per cent less than the amount planned in the Military Defence Development Plan (MDDP) for 2009-2018. **2009** **2010** **2011** **2012** **2013** **2014** **2015** **2016** **2017** **2018** MDDP 2009-2018 308.76 395.49 432.30 471.41 518.55 567.82 616.08 665.37 715.27 765.34 The actuality and the updated forecast 256.02 248.86 279.95 340.88 361.36 384.16 408.92 435.33 462.04 487.64 TABLE – MDDP projected resource comparison: the actuality for 2009-2012 and 2013-2018 vs the current forecast in current prices ## 3. Size of the Defence Budget The planning assumption for determining the defence budget was that the level of defence spending in 2013-2022 will remain at two per cent of GDP. Economic growth was assumed to be in accordance with the summer 2012 economic forecast from the Ministry of Finance for 2013-2016. The basis for economic growth with regard to 2017-2022 is the GDP growth forecast sent by the Ministry of Finance to the Ministry of Defence ----- **2013** **2014** **2015** **2016** **2017** **2018** **2019** **2020** **2021** **2022** GDP nominal growth 6.4% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% GDP real growth 3.02% 3.41% 3.49% 3.59% 3.29% 2.75% 2.66% 2.67% 2.59% 2.62% Purchasing power decrease coef㔹‵cient 92.7% 90.1% 87.6% 85.2% 82.8% 80.6% 78.4% 76.3% 74.3% 72.4% Defence spending as a % of GDP 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Defence expenditures (current prices) 361,359 384,156 408,924 435,329 462,037 487,641 514,048 541,805 570,488 600,705 thousands of € Defence expenditures (2011 prices) 335,112 346,278 358,282 370,738 382,643 392,876 403,034 413,512 423,938 434,728 thousands of € TABLE – Amount of defence expenditures ## 4. Summary of the National Defence Development ### Plan 2013-2022 The National Peacetime Defence Act de㔹‵nes as basic national defence documents the National Security Concept of Estonia, the National Defence Strategy, National Defence Development Plan, Military Defence Action Plan and the Operational Defence Plan. The National Defence Development Plan speci㔹‵es, on the basis of the national defence strategy, the priorities and ----- This National Defence Development Plan covers the period 2013 - 2022 and replaces the MDDP for 2009-2018. The development objectives set forth in the document shall be speci㔹‵ed annually in medium to long range development plans and the national budgetary strategy. **The fundamental principle behind the National Defence Development Plan is to produce concrete military units that are** **able to respond rapidly when necessary.** **With regard to land operations, the main focus during the development plan’s planning period is on establishing rapid-** **response infantry brigades, developing armoured manoeuvre capability and strengthening anti-tank defences.** ----- **By 2022, the 2nd infantry brigade shall also be established and developed in full, which will signi㔹‵cantly increase the** **Defence Forces’ 㔹‵repower and rapid-response capability.** **The Defence Forces’ anti-tank capability will rise signi㔹‵cantly thanks to procurement of the most modern anti-tank** **missile systems for both brigades.** To ensure mobile and far-ranging covering 㔹‵re, 155mm self-propelled howitzers shall be procured for the Defence Forces. In addition to the above, the development plan also sets out the need for heavy armoured manoeuvre capability – tanks – and medium-range air-defence capability. Due to resource limitations, it will be possible to start developing these capabilities by 2022, but not complete the development in full by that year. The decision with regard to exactly when the tank battalion and medium-range air-defence battalion will be ultimately developed will be made during the time of the preparation of the next national defence development plan in 2016. The security “carpet” covering all of Estonia – the result of territorial defence – will become even a greater priority and a speci㔹‵c instance will be assigned responsibility for territorial defence – the Defence League. This will be the primary military function for the Defence League. The ef㔹‵cacious military command of territorial defence (the 15 Defence League districts) in even the most complicated situations will take place through the 㔹‵ve territorial defence districts, which will become activated in times of crisis and in the event of war. The units belonging to the territorial defence structure shall be equipped and completely armed. The voluntary element in national defence shall be supported and the goal is to increase the ranks of the Defence League from the current 22,250 to 30,000 in ten years. With regard to air operations, the development plan provides for an increase of Estonia’s air defence capability and ----- be modernized. VThe Air Force command and noti㔹‵cation centre shall be developed. It shall be capable to command air force operations as a part of NATO’s integrated air and missile defence system. Ämari air base shall achieve the capability of hosting allies’ aircraft, including one NATO air policing rotation per year by 2015. Development of mine warfare capability shall be continued in the Navy with three mine countermeasure vessels to be modernized, as well as a diver group and one naval auxiliary vessel. The Navy shall continue participation in international military operations and the NATO mine warfare group, thus ensuring, among other things, the frequent presence of NATO’s permanent Mine Countermeasures Group (SNMCMG1) in the Baltic Sea. **The Defence Forces shall achieve the capability of carrying out special operations throughout the country’s territory** **with short advance notice. Starting in 2012, the special operations unit shall contribute to ful㔹‵lment of Estonia’s duties as** an ally on foreign operations. Reconnaissance and early warning shall remain priorities in accordance with the new development plan. In the interim four years, the 㔹‵eld has seen strong development, but the ever more complicated security situation and the potentially more rapid development of security threats dictate the need to remain at least a step ahead of developments. The development plan shall devote special attention to Defence Forces mobilization and support. The functions of Estonia military defence mobilization and support shall be concentrated in the Support Command to be created. The principal functions of the Support Command will be to lead the process of mobilization and formation of units, logistical support and activities related to Host Nation Support, and to coordinate the 㔹‵eld of military education. The effectiveness of command of military defence shall increase and bureaucracy shall decrease. Command of the Defence Forces shall take place from one operation and strategic level staff; the Army Staff and the ----- the Defence League. In addition to the Territorial Defence Staff, the wartime territorial defence structure will have 㔹‵ve territorial defence districts with a territorial area of responsibility, one of which will be responsible for the so-called Greater Tallinn area. During peacetime, the territorial defence district staffs will be part of the Defence League General Staff or the Defence League district staffs. The effectiveness of support services in the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defence shall increase. A joint ICT development and administration centre shall be created in the jurisdiction of the Defence Forces into which the information and communications technology development and support functions of the relevant institutions will be concentrated. The logistics system in the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defence shall be reorganized and in four years, a joint institution shall be established ensuring effective, centralized and transparent administration of materiel and infrastructure life cycle during both war and peace. To better manage veterans support services, the services shall be consolidated in a common support services centre to be created as part of the Defence Forces and which will manage and administer veterans support services throughout the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defence. **Compared to the provisions of the previous development plan, the number of conscripts has risen by one-quarter –** **instead on the previously planned 2,500, there will be 3,200 conscripts drafted annually.** The current conscription model will be maintained and compulsory military service will remain the primary basis for training reserve units and manning professional units. Starting in 2013, female Estonian citizens can also complete analogous military service on a voluntary basis. ----- To ensure an increase in active-duty personnel, salaries in the Defence Forces and Defence League shall in 2013 be made competitive. This will be done based on the principle that personnel expenses in the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defence must not exceed one-third of the budget for the area of administration in any one year during the planning period. The share of the budget devoted to salaries for civilians in the Ministry of Defence’s jurisdiction shall not increase. This means that the creation of additional civilian positions or increasing the wages faster than the in吠㔷ation rate or overall growth in defence spending can only take place at the expense of other civilian positions. The main priority in developing training areas is the Defence Forces central training ground, which must enable the infantry battalion hold simulated battle conditions exercises and air to surface bombing. The training areas in Nursipalu, Sirgala and Männiku and the shooting ranges in Tapa, Jõhvi, Uniküla, Männiku and Klooga will be developed and improved. In addition, the establishment of 7-10 additional shooting ranges in locations decided by the Defence League will take place in order to support training of Defence League military units. The Ministry of Defence area of administration will continue prioritizing cyber defence both internationally and domestically, using for this purpose, among other things, the synergy created by cooperation between Defence League cyber defence units and the NATO Cyber Defence Centre. **The contribution to foreign operations carried out by NATO, the European Union and/or coalitions of the willing will** **continue in order to achieve Estonia’s security policy objectives. As a planning precondition, the point of departure is the** requirements for increasing the applicability of NATO forces. Unlike the 㔹‵eld of military defence, the national defence functions with regard to other national defence 㔹‵elds have not been identi㔹‵ed, as a result of which for the 㔹‵rst time functions in the context of the broad interpretation of national defence was analysed in conjunction with representatives of the Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economic ----- implementation phase, the focus with regard to non-military 㔹‵elds lay on re㔹‵ning methodology and carrying out an analysis of the volume and resources of identi㔹‵ed functions. In the process of cooperation between institutions taking part in the process, the development plan has created a platform for further development of cross-agency planning of national defence. ## 5. Closing Remarks The National Defence Development Plan and its provisions are based on a number of interconnected presumptions: the developments in the security environment and military needs, amount of defence spending, share in the defence budget of expenditures not directly related to the military power con㔹‵guration, and the resource need for various military capabilities from the standpoint of maintenance, creation and number of active-duty personnel. The forces decided in the development plan can be created only if the said preconditions do not signi㔹‵cantly change and the defence budget resources are aimed during the planning period only for developing the capabilities and units speci㔹‵ed in the development plan. To make the changes set forth in the development plan a reality, additional steps are to be taken, which shall be further speci㔹‵ed by shorter-term planning documents: the military defence activity plan, the four-year development plan for the Ministry of Defence area of administration and annual state budgets. In addition to these, a number of other draft legal acts must be prepared for implementation of the development plan. To plan their coordinated development, a detailed implementation plan will be prepared by April 2013. ----- [1. http://valitsus.ee/et/riigikantselei/eesti2020 (http://valitsus.ee/et/riigikantselei/eesti2020 )](http://valitsus.ee/et/riigikantselei/eesti2020) -----